Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

Rockfall seismic features analysis based on in situ tests:frequency,amplitude, and duration

In the seismic event classification,determining the seismic features of rockfall is significantly important for the automatic classification of seismic events because of the huge amount of raw data recorded by seismic stations in continuous monitoring. At the same time, the rockfall seismic features are still not completely understood.This study concentrates on the rockfall frequency content, amplitude(ground velocity), seismic waveform and duration analysis, of an artificial rockfall test at Torgiovannetto(a former quarry in Central Italy). A total of 90 blocks were released in the test, and their seismic signals and moving trajectories were recorded by four tri-axial seismic stations and four cameras, respectively. In the analysis processing,all the artificial rockfall signal traces were cut separately and the seismic features were extracted individually and automatically. In this study, the relationships between a) frequency content and impacted materials, b) frequency content and the distance between block releasing position and seismic station(source-receiver distance) were discussed. As a result, we found that the frequency content of rockfall focuses on 10-60 Hz and 80-90 Hz within a source-receiver distance of 200 m, and it is well correlated with impacted material and source-receiver distance. To evaluate the difference between earthquake and rockfall, 23 clear earthquake signals recorded in a seven month-long continuous seismic monitoring, carried out with the four seismic stations, were picked out, according to the Italian national earthquakes database(INGV). On these traces we performed the same analysis as in the artificial rockfall traces, and two parameters were defined to separate rockfall events from earthquake noise. The first one, the amplitude ratio, is related to the amplitude variation of rockfall between two stations and is greater than that of earthquakes, because of the higher attenuation occurring for rockfall events, which consists in high frequencies whereas for earthquakes it consists in low frequencies. The other parameter, the shape of waveform of signal trace, showed a significant difference between rockfall and earthquake and that could be a complementary feature to discriminate between both. This analysis of artificial rockfall is a first step helpful to understand the seismic characteristics of rockfall, and useful for rockfall seismic events classification in seismic monitoring of slope.     

Distribution and spatial variation of hydrothermal faunal assemblages at Lucky Strike (Mid-Atlantic Ridge) revealed by high-resolution video image analysis

Whilst the fauna inhabiting hydrothermal vent structures in the Atlantic Ocean is reasonably well known, less is understood about the spatial distributions of the fauna in relation to abiotic and biotic factors. In this study, a major active hydrothermal edifice (Eiffel Tower, at 1690 m depth) on the Lucky Strike vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR)) was investigated. Video transects were carried out by ROV Victor 6000 and complete image coverage was acquired. Four distinct assemblages, ranging from dense larger-sized Bathymodiolus mussel beds to smaller-sized mussel clumps and alvinocaridid shrimps, and two types of substrata were defined based on high definition photographs and video imagery. To evaluate spatial variation, faunal distribution was mapped in three dimensions. A high degree of patchiness characterizes this 11 m high sulfide structure. The differences observed in assemblage and substratum distribution were related to habitat characteristics (fluid exits, depth and structure orientation). Gradients in community structure were observed, which coincided with an increasing distance from the fluid exits. A biological zonation model for the Eiffel Tower edifice was created in which faunal composition and distribution can be visually explained by the presence/absence of fluid exits.     

The interannual variability of the surface eddy kinetic energy in the Labrador Sea

The variability of the surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea is investigated with a suite of numerical integrations using a regional ocean model. Simulations are performed over the period 1980–2001 and are compared to satellite observations over the last 9 years. The surface EKE pattern in the basin is dominated by a region along the West coast of Greenland where eddies, mainly anticyclonic, are formed by instability of the main currents flowing over the continental slope, consistent with previous idealized results. Here the interannual changes are linked to the shear of the incoming boundary current system imposed as boundary condition to the model domain. The highly variable strength of the East Greenland current at the northeast boundary, derived from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, strongly influences the vortex formation.In the center of the Labrador Sea, where deep convection occurs, a statistically significant portion of the modeled interannual surface EKE variability is correlated with the local atmospheric forcing, and both heat and wind fluxes play an important role and can be adopted as predictors at a lag of 2–3 months. The Arctic Oscillation index can also be used as a remote indicator of the atmospheric fluxes, but with lower skill than local measurements. In contrast the North Atlantic Oscillation index does not correlate significantly with the surface EKE at intraseasonal and interannual scales. The analysis of altimeter data over the 1993–2001 supports the existence of this asymmetry between the regime locally forced by the atmosphere in the central basin, and the regime remotely forced by the incoming boundary current along the west Greenland coast. Those results have important implications for monitoring and predicting the surface eddy kinetic energy variability in the Labrador Sea.     

Population connectivity of an overexploited coastal fish,Argyrosomus coronus (Sciaenidae), in an ocean-warming hotspot

The West Coast dusky kob Argyrosomus coronus is a commercially exploited fish with a distribution confined to the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean. A previous study revealed that during a recent period of local warming the species extended its distribution into Namibian waters, where it hybridised with the resident and congeneric Argyrosomus inodorus. Environmental changes are a major threat to marine biodiversity and when combined with overfishing have the potential to accelerate the decline of species. However, little is known regarding the evolutionary history and population structure of A. coronus across the ABFZ. We investigated genetic diversity, population structure and historical demographic changes using mtDNA control region sequences and genotypes at six nuclear microsatellite loci, from 180 individuals. A single, genetically homogeneous population was indicated across the distributional range of A. coronus (φ_ST = 0.041, F_ST = 0.000, D = 0.000; p > 0.05). These findings imply that the oceanographic features within the ABFZ do not appear to significantly influence population connectivity in A. coronus, which simplifies management of the species. However, reconstruction of the demographic history points to a close link between the evolutionary history of A. coronus and the environmental characteristics of the ABFZ. This outcome suggests the species’ vulnerability to the rapid environmental changes being observed across this region, and highlights a pressing need for transboundary management to mitigate the impacts of climate change in this global hotspot of seawater temperature changes.     

Dark matter as an effect of the quantum vacuum

The interaction between the quantum vacuum and a weak gravitational field is calculated for the vacuum fields of quantum electrodynamics. The result shows that the vacuum state is modified by the gravitational field, giving rise to a nonzero interaction energy. This suggests a model that fits in the main properties of the hypothetical dark matter in galactic haloes.     

Analytical study of the swing-by maneuver in an elliptical system

The objective of the present paper is to derive a set of analytical equations that describe a swing-by maneuver realized in a system of primaries that are in elliptical orbits. The goal is to calculate the variations of energy, velocity and angular momentum as a function of the usual basic parameters that describe the swing-by maneuver, as done before for the case of circular orbits. In elliptical orbits the velocity of the secondary body is no longer constant, as in the circular case, but it varies with the position of the secondary body in its orbit. As a consequence, the variations of energy, velocity and angular momentum become functions of the magnitude and the angle between the velocity vector of the secondary body and the line connecting the primaries. The “patched-conics” approach is used to obtain these equations. The configurations that result in maximum gains and losses of energy for the spacecraft are shown next, and a comparison between the results obtained using the analytical equations and numerical simulations are made to validate the method developed here.