Seismic signature of a phreatic explosion: hydrofracturing damage at Karthala volcano, Grande Comore Island, Indian Ocean

Karthala volcano is a basaltic shield volcano with an active hydrothermal system that forms the southern two-thirds of the Grande Comore Island, off the east coat of Africa, northwest of Madagascar. Since the start of volcano monitoring by the local volcano observatory in 1988, the July 11th, 1991 phreatic eruption was the first volcanic event seismically recorded on this volcano, and a rare example of a monitored basaltic shield. From 1991 to 1995 the VT locations, 0.5<M_l<4.3, show a crack shaped pattern (3 km long, 1 km wide) within the summit caldera extending at depth from –2 km to +2 km relative to sea level. This N-S elongated pattern coincides with the direction of the regional maximum horizontal stress as deduced from regional focal mechanism solutions. This brittle signature of the damage associated with the 1991 phreatic eruption is a typical pattern of the seismicity induced by controlled fluid injections such as those applied at geothermal fields, in oil and gas recovery, or for stress measurements. It suggests the 1991 phreatic eruption was driven by hydraulic fracturing induced by forced fluid flow. We propose that the extremely high LP and VT seismicity rates, relative to other effusive volcanoes, during the climax of the 1991 phreatic explosion, are due to the activation of the whole hydrothermal system, as roughly sized by the distribution of VT hypocenters. The seismicity rate in 1995 was still higher than the pre-eruption seismicity rate, and disagrees with the time pattern of thermo-elastic stress readjustment induced by single magma intrusions at basaltic volcanoes. We propose that it corresponds to the still ongoing relaxation of pressure heterogeneity within the hydrothermal system as suggested by the few LP events that still occurred in 1995.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

Low-Frequency Plasma Waves in the Outer Polar CUSP: A Review of Observations from Prognoz 8, Interball 1, Magion 4, and Cluster

This paper presents a review of the most interesting observations of low-frequency plasma waves together with plasma particles which were made by the Interball 1, Magion 4 and Prognoz 8 satellites in the outer polar cusp. Accelerated plasma particles, hot electron populations and very strong wave activity, particularly at low frequencies, are observed. A detailed study of the wave spectra together with the distribution function for electrons indicate the correlation between the presence of lower-hybrid waves and the population of the particles with higher energy than in the surrounding space. These experimental facts suggest that strong coupling between waves and particles is responsible for plasma heating. During polar cusp crossings by Interball 1 and Prognoz 8, FFT analysis of the wave form indicates many bursts of ULF emissions in both electric and magnetic components. These waves have highly non-stationary characteristics. To study the dynamics of changes in the spectral characteristics of the waves wavelet analysis has been used. Nonlinear interactions are studied using bispectral methods of analysis. This presentation gives the results of such an analysis for selected cusp crossings at different altitudes. An example of wave activity registered by the STAFF instrument onboard the CLUSTER spacecraft in the polar cusp is also presented.     

Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).     

Erosion processes in karst landscapes of the Russian plain northern taiga,based on digital elevation modeling

This paper considers the problems of the potential development of erosion processes in the natural landscapes of northern taiga in the Russian plain. It is considered that in forest ecosystems, erosion processes are slow and are weakly reflected in the terrain. However, the situation changes radically if the vegetation cover integrity is violated, which is inevitable with the modern methods of developing northern territories. Furthermore, global changes in average annual temperatures and the occurrence of karst processes may be the reason behind the development of erosion processes. The authors suggest a method for determining territories with a varying occurrence probability of erosional processes, based on digital elevation modelling. The territory of the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve (Arkhangelsk region) was chosen as the test plot. Direct field studies were previously used to detect exogenous geological processes in this territory. The authors were the first to suggest digital elevation modelling as a method that allows determining the potential danger of erosion in karst landscapes of the northern taiga. The geomorphometric studies resulted in the determination of areas with the greatest and lowest occurrence probability of erosion processes in the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve. It was established that the most significant erosion type was linear erosion, represented by incised river valleys and karst ravines. Sheet erosion is less significant and occurs as sinkholes, local declines, and chasms over the valleys of subterranean rivers.     

Crust structure of the northeastern Barents Sea basin area

Processing of data from regional geophysical surveys completed in the northern Barents Sea has provided updates to gravity and magnetic databases, structural maps of seismic interfaces, and positions of anomaly sources, which made a basis for 3D density and magnetic models of the crust. The new geological and geophysical results placed constraints on the boundaries between basement blocks formed in different settings and on the contours of deposition zones of different ages in the northeastern Barents Sea. The estimated thicknesses of sedimentary sequences that formed within certain time spans record the deposition history of the region. There is a 20-50 km wide deep suture between two basins of Mesozoic and Paleozoic ages in the eastern part of the region, where pre-Late Triassic reflectors have no clear correlation. The suture slopes eastward at a low angle and corresponds to a paleothrust according to seismic and modeling data. In the basement model, the suture is approximated by a zone of low magnetization and density, which is common to active fault systems. The discovery of the suture has important geological and exploration implications.     

The Juchatengo complex: an upper-level ophiolite assemblage of late Paleozoic age in Oaxaca,southern Mexico

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Juchatengo complex (JC) suite is located between the Proterozoic Oaxacan complex to the north and the Xolapa complex to the south, and was amalgamated...     

Impact of model complexity and multi-scale data integration on the estimation of hydrogeological parameters in a dual-porosity aquifer

This study investigates the impact of model complexity and multi-scale prior hydrogeological data on the interpretation of pumping test data in a dual-porosity aquifer (the Chalk aquifer in England, UK). In order to characterize the hydrogeological properties, different approaches ranging from a traditional analytical solution (Theis approach) to more sophisticated numerical models with automatically calibrated input parameters are applied. Comparisons of results from the different approaches show that neither traditional analytical solutions nor a numerical model assuming a homogenous and isotropic aquifer can adequately explain the observed drawdowns. A better reproduction of the observed drawdowns in all seven monitoring locations is instead achieved when medium and local-scale prior information about the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution is used to constrain the model calibration process. In particular, the integration of medium-scale vertical K variations based on flowmeter measurements lead to an improvement in the goodness-of-fit of the simulated drawdowns of about 30%. Further improvements (up to 70%) were observed when a simple upscaling approach was used to integrate small-scale K data to constrain the automatic calibration process of the numerical model. Although the analysis focuses on a specific case study, these results provide insights about the representativeness of the estimates of hydrogeological properties based on different interpretations of pumping test data, and promote the integration of multi-scale data for the characterization of heterogeneous aquifers in complex hydrogeological settings.     

Modeling the effects of the variability of temperature-related dynamic viscosity on the thermal-affected zone of groundwater heat-pump systems

Thermal perturbation in the subsurface produced in an open-loop groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant is a complex transport phenomenon affected by several factors, including the exploited aquifer’s hydrogeological and thermal characteristics, well construction features, and the temporal dynamics of the plant’s groundwater abstraction and reinjection system. Hydraulic conductivity has a major influence on heat transport because plume propagation, which occurs primarily through advection, tends to degrade following conductive heat transport and convection within moving water. Hydraulic conductivity is, in turn, influenced by water reinjection because the dynamic viscosity of groundwater varies with temperature. This paper reports on a computational analysis conducted using FEFLOW software to quantify how the thermal-affected zone (TAZ) is influenced by the variation in dynamic viscosity due to reinjected groundwater in a well-doublet scheme. The modeling results demonstrate non-negligible groundwater dynamic-viscosity variation that affects thermal plume propagation in the aquifer. This influence on TAZ calculation was enhanced for aquifers with high intrinsic permeability and/or substantial temperature differences between abstracted and post-heat-pump-reinjected groundwater.