Postglacial history of alpine vegetation,fire, and climate from Laguna de Río Seco,Sierra Nevada,southern Spain

The Sierra Nevada of southern Spain is a landscape with a rich biological and cultural heritage. The range was extensively glaciated during the late Pleistocene. However, the postglacial paleoecologic history of the highest range in southern Europe is nearly completely unknown. Here we use sediments from a small lake above present treeline – Laguna de Río Seco at 3020 m elevation – in a paleoecological study documenting over 11,500 calendar years of vegetation, fire and climate change, addressing ecological and paleoclimatic issues unique to this area through comparison with regional paleoecological sequences. The early record is dominated by Pinus pollen, with Betula, deciduous Quercus, and grasses, with an understory of shrubs. It is unlikely that pine trees grew around the lake, and fire was relatively unimportant at this site during this period. Aquatic microfossils indicate that the wettest conditions and highest lake levels at Laguna de Río Seco occurred before 7800 cal yr BP. This is in contrast to lower elevation sites, where wettest conditions occurred after ca 7800. Greater differences in early Holocene seasonal insolation may have translated to greater snowpack and subsequently higher lake levels at higher elevations, but not necessarily at lower elevations, where higher evaporation rates prevailed. With declining seasonality after ca 8000 cal yr BP, but continuing summer precipitation, lake levels at the highest elevation site remained high, but lake levels at lower elevation sites increased as evaporation rates declined. Drier conditions commenced regionally after ca 5700 cal yr BP, shown at Laguna de Río Seco by declines in wetland pollen, and increases in high elevation steppe shrubs common today (Juniperus, Artemisia, and others). The disappearance or decline of mesophytes, such as Betula from ca 4000 cal yr BP is part of a regional depletion in Mediterranean Spain and elsewhere in Europe from the mid to late Holocene. On the other hand, Castanea sativa increased in Laguna de Río Seco record after ca 4000 cal yr BP, and especially in post-Roman times, probably due to arboriculture. Though not as important at high than at low elevations, fire occurrence was elevated, particularly after ca 3700 years ago, in response to regional human population expansion. The local and regional impact of humans increased substantially after ca 2700 years ago, with the loss of Pinus forest within the mountain range, increases in evidence of pasturing herbivores around the lake, and Olea cultivation at lower elevations. Though human impact was not as extensive at high elevation as at lower elevation sites in southern Iberia, this record confirms that even remote sites were not free of direct human influence during the Holocene.     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Evolution of the equatorial and dipole modes of the sea-surface temperature in the Tropical Atlantic at decadal scale

Summary ?One hundred and thirty six years (1856–1991) of monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) data in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean are used to investigate the propagating signals of the SST at a decadal (DD) time scale. The first and the third evolving modes show a relationship between the equatorial and the inter-hemispheric patterns, one evolving into the other mode and vice-versa. These modes describe two different evolutions of the SST at DD time-scale. The first EEOF features a 12-year period oscillatory regime with a strong 2-year duration inter-hemispheric pattern evolving into a weak 1-year duration equatorial pattern and vice-versa. This mode exhibits also a northward displacement of the anomalies in the band 15° S–15° N. The third EEOF also shows an oscillatory regime, but with a period of 10 years and with a relatively strong 2-year duration equatorial pattern evolving into a weak 1-year duration inter-hemispheric pattern and vice-versa. For this mode, the SST anomalies show a southward displacement in the band 15° S–15° N. These results have not yet been documented in previous works and explain some of the previous findings on the DD variability in the Tropical Atlantic. Received December 31, 2001; revised April 9, 2002; accepted September 4, 2002 Published online: March 20, 2003     

Lichens as bioindicators in volcanic areas: Mt. Etna and Vulcano Island (Italy)

 The aim of this paper is to verify whether lichens have the capacity to accumulate atmospheric contaminators linked to volcanic activity. About 100 lichens were collected in 1994 and 1995 from two active volcanic areas in Italy: Mount Etna and Vulcano Island. Twenty-seven elements were analyzed for each individual lichen using Instrumental Neutronic Activation Analysis and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry. Lichen composition reflects the contribution of the volcanic particulate material, and the two areas investigated can be distinguished on the basis of the concentration of some lithophile elements. Moreover, the distribution in lichens of the elements (As, Sb, Br, Pb) – derived from gas emissions (plume, fumaroles) – also shows different geochemical trends on Mt. Etna and Vulcano. Received: 20 April 1998 · Accepted: 4 July 1998     

Libration dynamics and stability of electrodynamic tethers in satellite deorbit

This paper studies libration dynamics and stability of deorbiting nano-satellites by short and bare electrodynamic tethers. A critical aspect of satellite deorbit by an electrodynamic tether is to maintain the tether aligned with the local vertical and stable while subjected to external perturbations. The dynamics of electrodynamic tether system in deorbit application is divided into the orbital motion of the center of system’s mass and the tether libration motion relative to that center. Major space environmental perturbations including the current-induced electrodynamic force, atmospheric drag, oblateness effect of the Earth, irregularity of geomagnetic field, variable plasma density, solar radiation pressure, and lunisolar gravitational attractions are considered in the dynamic analysis. Quantitative analyses are provided in order to characterize the order of the perturbative torques during the deorbit process. A single index is derived from the libration energy to stabilize the libration motion by regulating the current in the tether through simple on-off switching. Numerical results show that the libration dynamics of an electrodynamic tether has significant impacts on the deorbit process and the electrodynamic tether cannot effectively deorbit satellites without libration stability control. The proposed current regulation strategy is simple and very effective in stabilizing libration motion of an electrodynamic tether.     

Oceanic fine structure

Abstract

Measurements by free fall instruments, in the San Diego Trough, the Florida Current, and the central Pacific, reveal the detailed structure of the vertical component of the oceanic temperature gradient. The temperature changes are concentrated into regions on the order of a meter thick wherein the measured gradients are often more than ten times the average gradient. The horizontal extent of the regions of high gradient is greater than 750 meters in the seasonal thermocline off San Diego, but is only a few hundred meters at depths greater than 400 meters.

Fine scale measurements show that the layers of high gradient consist of even finer fluctuations in gradient which are only a few centimeters thick. Time scales of the thinnest of these regions of high gradient are of the order of five minutes. The data also yields an estimate of the entropy generation. According to the results of an idealized model relating entropy generation to the turbulent heat transport, only 240 to 700 ergs per cm.² per sec were transported in a 25 meter vertical section measured in the San Diego Trough. This value compared with 3600 ergs per cm.² per sec estimated from the mean gradient and an eddy coefficient of 1 cm.² per sec.     

Application of multiple sublethal stress indicators to assess the health of fish in Pamlico Sound following extensive flooding

Multiple indicators of sublethal stress (bioindicators) were used to assess the health and condition of two important estuarine fish species in the Pamlico Sound estuary following extensive flooding from three sequential hurricanes that occurred during early fall 1999. Bioindicators ranging from the biochemical to the reproductive and organism-level were used to assess the health of southern flounder and spot in Pamlico Sound compared to the health of these same species sampled from a relatively unaffected references site in lower Core Sound. Many of the physiological, reproductive, immunological, histopathological, and general condition indices suggested that both species, and particularly spot, in Pamlico Sound were sublethally stressed and in poorer condition than fish sampled from Core Sound. The major environmental stressors causing these sublethal stress responses in Pamlico Sound fish appears to be those related to episodic hypoxic exposure or a combination of effects associated with hypoxic conditions such as alterations in preferred habitat and food availability. Although fish populations in Pamlico Sound do not appear to be severely damaged or impaired at this time, organisms that are sublethally stressed can incur increased vulnerability to additional or future stressors such as modified physicochemical regimes, changes in food and habitat availability, and increases in infectious pathogens. Because of the low flushing rate (～1 yr) of Pamlico Sound, recovery rate may be exceptionally slow, prolonging any adverse effects of altered nutrient regimes (such as hypoxia) on the health and fitness of resident fish populations. Flooding from the 1999 hurricanes may have contributed to the short-term health and condition of finfish species in Pamlico Sound and also influenced longer-term recovery and ecological status of this system. Longer-term manifestation of effects from flooding may be of particular concern as the frequency of hurricanes is expected to increase over the next few years and the accelerated uses of the coastal zone places further stress on estuarine resources.