大型湖库滨岸带蓝藻水华堆积风险评估——以巢湖为例

淡水湖库富营养化与蓝藻水华是全球性的突出水环境问题,尤其是滨岸带严重蓝藻水华堆积甚至造成了水体黑臭、威胁饮用水安全等严重危害,科学评估滨岸带蓝藻水华堆积风险、精准识别蓝藻水华易堆积区域是水环境管理与研究中亟待解决的关键科学问题.本研究以我国长江中下游的大型浅水富营养化湖泊巢湖为研究对象,依托流域水文与湖泊水动力模拟、遥...     

The effects of intermediate principle stress on the mechanical behavior of transversely isotropic rocks: Insights from DEM simulations

The discrete element method (DEM) is used to study the response of anisotropic rocks under true triaxial testing. Numerical samples of seven different bedding orientations (β = 0^o, 15^o, 30^o, 45^o, 60^o, 75^o, and 90^o) are created. Six series of test simulations (σ₃ = 0, 10, 30, 50, 70, and 100 MPa) are conducted on each sample, with five different σ₂ values, varied from σ₃ to σ₁. The effects of anisotropy and intermediate stress on the peak strength, brittle-ductile transition, and degree of anisotropy are subsequently explained through underlying micromechanics. Results show a “fan-shaped” variation of the peak strength with σ₂, displaying an ascending-then-descending trend. An increasing brittleness with σ₂ is observed at lower confining pressures for all, but medium anisotropy angles. For higher confining pressures, increasing ductility with σ₂ is seen for every anisotropy angle. A U-shaped variation of peak strength with anisotropy angles is noted that flattens under high intermediate stress. Hence, for numerical models of Posidonia shale under normalized σ₂ higher than 0.76, the anisotropy effect is found to be negligible. Micromechanical analyses reveal that the stress asymmetry, suppression of weak plane action as well as the localization and coalescence of microcracks in the intact rock matrix, due to σ₂, are the contributors towards the obtained trends. Since existing failure criteria do not weigh in these features in geotechnical assessments, this paper helps future studies by providing a deeper understanding of these effects and a comprehensive data set for the analyses of anisotropic rocks under polyaxial stress conditions.     

Towards optimal observational array for dealing with challenges of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions due to diversities of El Niño

This paper investigates the optimal observational array for improving the initialization of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions by exploring the sensitive areas for target observations of two types of El Niño predictions. The sensitive areas are identified by calculating the optimally growing errors (OGEs) of the Zebiak–Cane model, as corrected by the optimal forcing vector that is determined by assimilating the observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). It is found that although the OGEs have similar structures for different start months of predictions, the regions covered by much large errors for the SSTA component tend to locate at different zonal positions and depends on the start months. Furthermore, these regions are also in difference between two types of El Niño events. The regions covered by large errors of OGEs represent the sensitive areas for target observations. Considering the dependence of the sensitive areas on related El Niño types and the start months of predictions, the present study propose a quantitative frequency method to determine the sensitive areas for target observations associated with two types of El Niño predictions, which is expected to be applicable for both types of El Niño predictions with different start months. As a result, the sensitive areas that describe the array of target observations are presented with a reversal triangle-like shape locating in the eastern Pacific, specifically the area of 120°W–85°W, 0°S–11°S, and an extension to the west along the equator and then gathering at the 180° longitude and the western boundary. “Hindcast” experiments demonstrated that such observational array is very useful in distinguishing two types of El Niño and superior to the TAO/TRITON array. It is therefore suggested that the observational array provided in the present study is towards the optimal one and the original TAO/TRITON array should be further optimized when applied to predictions of the diversities of El Niño events.

     

中亚阿拉木图与乌鲁木齐寒潮气候特征对比分析

利用1951—2016年阿拉木图与乌鲁木齐的逐日气象观测资料,对比分析中亚区域两个主要城市的寒潮气候变化特征。结果表明:(1)阿拉木图和乌鲁木齐的年寒潮过程频数分别为6.1次和4.2次,阿拉木图的寒潮过程较频繁;阿拉木图的寒潮过程年内分布呈单峰型,峰值在11月和12月,而乌鲁木齐的过程频数年内分布呈双峰型,分别出现在4月和11月;阿拉木图的冬半年寒潮过程初日和终日均比乌鲁木齐偏早9 d。(2)1951—2006年,阿拉木图和乌鲁木齐的年寒潮过程频数均呈线性减少趋势,阿拉木图的减少趋势更加显著;阿拉木图与乌鲁木齐的寒潮过程异常偏多年主要出现在1980年之前;阿拉木图的年寒潮过程频数存在21 a显著周期,乌鲁木齐存在39 a显著周期。(3)乌鲁木齐的寒潮过程最低气温低于阿拉木图,但是阿拉木图的寒潮过程降温幅度强于乌鲁木齐;56 a来,阿拉木图和乌鲁木齐的寒潮过程降温幅度的年累计值的变化率分别为-8.1℃/10 a和-5.9℃/10 a,相比而言,阿拉木图的寒潮过程强度的减弱趋势更加显著。     

气象条件对高酸苹果若干品质因子的影响

根据2011-2014年我国北方主要苹果产区7省(区) 17个市县的高酸苹果代表品种——澳洲青苹的取样资料,结合相应站点的气象资料,采用数理统计方法,研究了影响高酸苹果主要品质构成因子总酸、可溶性固形物、维生素C、出汁率的气象因子及关键时段,建立了数学关系式。结果表明,从影响要素上来看,气温、降水、日照时数和相对湿度是影响苹果品质最主要的气象因子;从影响时段上看,成熟前7、8、9月最为关键。在高酸苹果的4个品质构成因素中,总酸含量与7月日照时数、9月日照时数及7-9月气温日较差呈正相关,而与1月平均气温、7-9月空气相对湿度、4-9月降水量、7月水热系数及4-9月水热系数呈负相关;可溶性固形物含量与1月平均气温、9月空气相对湿度、5月降水量、9月降水量及9月水热系数呈正相关,而与8-9月日照时数、2月气温日较差及9月气温日较差呈负相关;维生素C含量与7月空气相对湿度、7月降水量、4月气温日较差、7月水热系数呈正相关,而与7月平均气温、9月平均气温、2月降水量及9月≥10℃有效积温呈负相关;出汁率与1月最高气温、4月日照时数及9月日照时数呈正相关,而与5月空气相对湿度、4-9月降水量、4月水热系数及4-9月水热系数呈负相关。研究结果可为高酸苹果的农业气象指标鉴定、气候区划及产业规划布局提供技术支撑。     

Evaluation of the Influence of Aquatic Plants and Lake Bottom on the Remote-Sensing Reflectance of Optically Shallow Waters

Abstract

Aquatic plants and lake bottoms in optically shallow waters (OSWs) wield great influence on reflectance spectra, resulting in the inapplicability of most existing bio-optical models for water colour remote sensing in lakes. Based on radiative transfer theory and measured spectra from a campaign for Lake Taihu in October 2008, absorption and backscattering coefficients were used to simulate the remote-sensing reflectance, which are considered to be reliable if matched to their measured counterparts. Several cases of measured spectra at different depths, Secchi disk depth transparency, and aquatic plant height and coverage were analyzed thoroughly for spectral properties. The contribution of aquatic plants was evaluated and compared with the measured and simulated remote-sensing reflectance values. This is helpful for removing the influence of aquatic plants and lake bottoms from the spectra and for constructing an improved chlorophyll a retrieval model for OSWs, such as that for Lake Taihu, China.     

Impacts of Land-Use Data on the Simulation of Surface Air Temperature in Northwest China

This study examines the impacts of land-use data on the simulation of surface air temperature in Northwest China by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. International Geosphere–Biosphere Program (IGBP) landuse data with 500-m spatial resolution are generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products. These data are used to replace the default U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land-use data in the WRF model. Based on the data recorded by national basic meteorological observing stations in Northwest China, results are compared and evaluated. It is found that replacing the default USGS land-use data in the WRF model with the IGBP data improves the ability of the model to simulate surface air temperature in Northwest China in July and December 2015. Errors in the simulated daytime surface air temperature are reduced, while the results vary between seasons. There is some variation in the degree and range of impacts of land-use data on surface air temperature among seasons. Using the IGBP data, the simulated daytime surface air temperature in July 2015 improves at a relatively small number of stations, but to a relatively large degree; whereas the simulation of daytime surface air temperature in December 2015 improves at almost all stations, but only to a relatively small degree (within 1°C). Mitigation of daytime surface air temperature overestimation in July 2015 is influenced mainly by the change in ground heat flux. The modification of underestimated temperature comes mainly from the improvement of simulated net radiation in December 2015.     

Fabrication of anodized superhydrophobic 5083 aluminum alloy surface for marine anti-corrosion and anti-biofouling

Marine corrosion and biofouling seriously affect the service life of marine structural materials,resulting in performance failure,enormous economic loss,and even catastrophic safety accidents.It is worthwhile and desirable to develop high-efficiency strategy for anti-corrosion and anti-biofouling.In this paper,superhydrophobic 5083 aluminum alloy(AA5083) surface with micro-nano hierarchical morphology was fabricated through anodization followed by 1 H,1 H,2 H,2 H-perfluorooctyltriethoxysilane(POTS)modification.The surface morphologies,roughness,and chemical compositions were revealed by scanning electron microscopy,atomic force microscopy,and X-ray diffraction.The self-cleaning ability,corrosion resistance and algae adhesion suppression ability of the fabricated surfaces were investigated,indicating an excellent water-proofing,anti-corrosion and anti-biofouling performance.We believe the superhydrophobic creation of metallic materials is expected to have potential applications in marine corrosion and antibiofouling fields.     

2000—07—13洪灾暴雨的成因初探

利用涡度、风场，结合地形，对2000－07－11－14日陕西省大范围降水形成洪灾的成因进行了初步探讨，揭示了大降水与主急流东移后的弱急流有密切关系，得出：低层源源不断的水汽、高空弱冷空气以及地面上风切变和特殊地形的共同影响，地表植被破坏严重，是造成这场洪灾暴雨的主要成因。     

地震调制比及其在华北地震中短期预报中的应用

对调制比预报地震方法进行了改进，并使用改进的地震调制比rm10对华北地区进行空间扫描，结果表明中强地震前1年左右的中短期阶段，未来震中周围的rm10中期异常区出现明显的收缩或消失，一些震例在临震前数月还再次出现rm10异常区。本方法具有较好的中短期预报效果，中还就rm10进行中短期预报的有关问题进行了讨论。