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101.
Detlef F. Sprinz 《Climatic change》2000,44(3):393-408
Political Science research encounters inferences across levels of analysis; however, they are fraught with challenges. After introducing voting examples of aggregation bias, problems posed by aggregation bias are summarized more generally. Subsequently, the article reviews the major methodological approaches to overcome aggregation bias and to solve the ecological inference (disaggregation) problem. The article highlights the possibility that aggregation bias may lead governments to accept (or reject) international climate agreements when negotiating as blocs of countries as compared to the distribution of the preferences of all countries involved in the negotiations. 相似文献
102.
This paper assesses regional abatement action and costs for two scenarios in which atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
stabilise at 450 and 550 ppm CO2-equivalent. It evaluates two allocation schemes: Multi-Stage and Contraction & Convergence. It was found that abatement costs
as percentages of GDP vary significantly by region, with high costs for the Middle East and the former Soviet Union, medium
costs for the OECD regions and low costs or even gains for (other) developing regions. In addition to the abatement costs
they incur, fossil-fuel-exporting regions are also likely to be affected by losses of coal and oil exports while the former
Soviet Union and South America could experience increased bio-energy exports. Especially in the former Soviet Union and Asia,
non-CO2 abatement options are important in the short term in reducing their emissions. Carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency
improvements, bio-energy use and the use of renewables dominate reductions in the long term in all regions. It was found that
the regional costs are influenced more by the assumed stabilisation level and baseline scenario than by the allocation regimes
explored or the assumptions for different technologies. 相似文献
103.
Detlef P. van Vuuren Elmar Kriegler Brian C. O’Neill Kristie L. Ebi Keywan Riahi Timothy R. Carter Jae Edmonds Stephane Hallegatte Tom Kram Ritu Mathur Harald Winkler 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):373-386
This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue. 相似文献
104.
Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework. 相似文献
105.
Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs 总被引:2,自引:8,他引:2
Detlef P. van Vuuren Michel G. J. den Elzen Paul L. Lucas Bas Eickhout Bart J. Strengers Bas van Ruijven Steven Wonink Roy van Houdt 《Climatic change》2007,81(2):119-159
On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse
gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to specific assumptions – 400 ppm CO2-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number of reduction options, such as reductions of non-CO2 gases, carbon plantations and measures in the energy system. The study shows stabilization as low as 450 ppm CO2-eq. to be technically feasible, even given relatively high baseline scenarios. To achieve these lower concentration levels,
global emissions need to peak within the first two decades. The net present value of abatement costs for the B2 baseline scenario
(a medium scenario) increases from 0.2% of cumulative GDP to 1.1% as the shift is made from 650 to 450 ppm. On the other hand,
the probability of meeting a two-degree target increases from 0%–10% to 20%–70%. The mitigation scenarios lead to lower emissions
of regional air pollutants but also to increased land use. The uncertainty in the cost estimates is at least in the order
of 50%, with the most important uncertainties including land-use emissions, the potential for bio-energy and the contribution
of energy efficiency. Furthermore, creating the right socio-economic and political conditions for mitigation is more important
than any of the technical constraints. 相似文献
106.
Alexander Popp Steven K. Rose Katherine Calvin Detlef P. Van Vuuren Jan Phillip Dietrich Marshall Wise Elke Stehfest Florian Humpenöder Page Kyle Jasper Van Vliet Nico Bauer Hermann Lotze-Campen David Klein Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):495-509
In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100. 相似文献
107.
Jasper van Vliet Andries F. Hof Angelica Mendoza Beltran Maarten van den Berg Sebastiaan Deetman Michel G. J. den Elzen Paul L. Lucas Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):559-569
While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these technologies. This study explores the impacts of technology limitations on greenhouse gas emission reductions using the integrated model IMAGE. It shows that the required short-term emission reductions to achieve long-term radiative forcing targets strongly depend on assumptions on the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Limited availability of mitigation technologies which are relatively important in the long run implies that lower short-term emission levels are required. For instance, limited bio-energy availability reduces the optimal 2020 emission level by more than 4 GtCO2eq in order to compensate the reduced availability of negative emissions from bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the long run. On the other hand, reduced mitigation potential of options that are used in 2020 can also lead to a higher optimal level for 2020 emissions. The results also show the critical role of BECCS for achieving low radiative forcing targets in IMAGE. Without these technologies achieving these targets become much more expensive or even infeasible. 相似文献
108.
Manuela Krügel Daniela Thaller Volker Tesmer Markus Rothacher Detlef Angermann Ralf Schmid 《Journal of Geodesy》2007,81(6-8):515-527
The combination of tropospheric parameters derived from different space-geodetic techniques has not been of large interest
in geodesy so far. However, due to the high correlation between station coordinates and tropospheric parameters, the latter
should not be neglected in combinations. This paper deals with the comparison and combination of tropospheric parameters derived
from global positioning system (GPS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations stemming from a 15-day campaign
of continuous VLBI observations in 2002 (CONT02). The observation data of both techniques were processed homogeneously to
avoid systematic differences between the solutions. We compared the tropospheric estimates of GPS and VLBI at eight co-location
sites and found a very good agreement in the temporal behavior of the tropospheric zenith path delays (ZPD), reflected by
correlation factors up to 0.98. Following this, a combination of the tropospheric parameters was performed. We demonstrate
that the combination of tropospheric parameters leads to a stabilization of combined station networks. This becomes visible
in the improvement of the repeatabilities of the station height components. Furthermore, the potential use of independent
data from water vapor radiometers (WVRs) to validate space-technique-derived tropospheric parameters was investigated. Correlation
coefficients of 0.95 or better were estimated between the tropospheric parameters of WVR and GPS or VLBI. Additionally, the
utility of the tropospheric parameters for validation of local tie vectors was investigated. Both tropospheric zenith delays
and tropospheric gradients were found to be very suitable to validate the height component and the horizontal components of
the local tie, respectively. 相似文献
109.
Kay-Christian Emeis David M. Anderson Heidi Doose Dick Kroon Detlef Schulz-Bull 《Quaternary Research》1995,43(3)
Arabian Sea sediments record changes in the upwelling system off Arabia, which is driven by the monsoon circulation system over the NW Indian Ocean. In accordance with climate models, and differing from other large upwelling areas of the tropical ocean, a 500,000-yr record of productivity at ODP Site 723 shows consistently stronger upwelling during interglaciations than during glaciations. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) reconstructed from the alkenone unsaturation index (UK′37) are high (up to 27°C) during interglaciations and low (22-24°C) during glaciations, indicating a glacial-interglacial temperature change of >3°C in spite of the dampening effect of enhanced or weakened upwelling. The increased productivity is attributed to stronger monsoon winds during interglacial times relative to glacial times, whereas the difference in SSTs must be unrelated to upwelling and to the summer monsoon intensity. The winter (NE) monsoon was more effective in cooling the Arabian Sea during glaciations then it is now. 相似文献
110.
Detlef Rost Thomas Stephan Ansgar Greshake Jörg Fritz Iris Weber Elmar K. Jessberger Dieter Stöffler 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(8):1225-1237
Abstract— A rare three‐phase symplectite consisting of Ca‐rich pyroxene, Fe‐rich olivine, and a silica phase is frequently found rimming pyroxene in the Martian meteorite Los Angeles. This assemblage is usually interpreted as the breakdown product of metastable pyroxferroite, a very rare pyroxenoid mineral itself. However, its origin is not entirely understood, mainly because the extremely small average size of the constituent phases represents a challenge for precise high‐resolution analysis. In addition to electron microbeam methods, the present study uses time‐of‐flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF‐SIMS) to overcome the limits of spatial resolution and to comprehensively study this mineral assemblage. The prevailing breakdown hypothesis is supported by the following results: (1) The three symplectite phases are very homogenous in composition from 100 μm down to the micrometer scale. (2) The silica phase could be shown to be almost pure SiO2. (3) The symplectite bulk composition is consistent with pyroxferroite. Sub‐micrometer sized Ti‐oxide grains are found within the symplectite (but not within the Ca‐rich pyroxene) and probably represent a minor breakdown phase in addition to the three main phases. 相似文献