How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.     

An ESA NEOCC Effort to Eliminate High Palermo Scale Virtual Impactors

In this work we summarize the initial results of a targeted effort of the ESA NEO Coordination Centre to obtain additional observational data in order to eliminate or reduce the impact probability estimate of a subset of the known near-Earth objects representing the highest fraction of the total known impact risk, as measured by the Palermo Scale.     

193nmLA-ICPMS对国际地质标准参考物质中42种主量和微量元素的分析

本文采用配备有 193nm Ar F准分子 (excimer)激光器的 Geo L as2 0 0 M剥蚀系统和 Elan6 10 0 DRC ICP- MS对 4个美国地质调查所 (USGS)玻璃标准参考物质以及 3个美国国家标准技术研究院 (NIST)人工合成硅酸盐玻璃标准参考物质中几乎覆盖整个质量数范围 (从 7L i到 2 38U)的 38个微量和 4个主量 (Na、Mg、Ti和 Mn)元素进行了分析。分析结果表明 ,无论是对 USGS还是 NIST玻璃 ,元素分析的相对标准偏差 RSDs和分析值与参考值之间的相对偏差 (RDs)一般优于 10 % ,RSD和RD较大的元素主要出现在含量很低或不均匀样品中。稀土元素的 RSD显示 ,除 AGV- 2 G可能存在不均匀现象外 ,其它所测样品在 6 0 μm尺度上 ,元素分布是均匀的。本研究证明 ,由于 ICP- MS具有 10 8cps(每秒计数 )的动态线性范围 ,本实验室的L A- ICPMS系统可定量分析含量在百分之几的主量元素及微量元素。分析精密度和准确度可与常规溶液雾化进样 ICP- MS方法相媲美     

Ablation Characteristic of Ilmenite using UV Nanosecond and Femtosecond Lasers: Implications for Non‐Matrix‐Matched Quantification

Ilmenite (FeTiO₃) is a common accessory mineral and has been used as a powerful petrogenetic indicator in many geological settings. Elemental fractionation and matrix effects in ilmenite (CRN63E‐K) and silicate glass (NIST SRM 610) were investigated using 193 nm ArF excimer nanosecond (ns) laser and 257 nm femtosecond (fs) laser ablation systems coupled to an inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometer. The concentration‐normalised ⁵⁷Fe and ⁴⁹Ti responses in ilmenite were higher than those in NIST SRM 610 by a factor of 1.8 using fs‐LA. Compared with the 193 nm excimer laser, smaller elemental fractionation was observed using the 257 nm fs laser. When using 193 nm excimer laser ablation, the selected range of the laser energy density had a significant effect on the elemental fractionation in ilmenite. Scanning electron microscopy images of ablation craters and the morphologies of the deposited aerosol materials showed more melting effects and an enlarged particle deposition area around the ablation site of the ns‐LA‐generated crater when compared with those using fs‐LA. The ejected material around the ns crater predominantly consisted of large droplets of resolidified molten material; however, the ejected material around the fs crater consisted of agglomerates of fine particles with ‘rough' shapes. These observations are a result of the different ablation mechanisms for ns‐ and fs‐LAs. Non‐matrix‐matched calibration was applied for the analysis of ilmenite samples using NIST SRM 610 as a reference material for both 193 nm excimer LA‐ICP‐MS and fs‐LA‐ICP‐MS. Similar analytical results for most elements in ilmenite samples were obtained using both 193 nm excimer LA‐ICP‐MS at a high laser energy density of 12.7 J cm^?2 and fs‐LA‐ICP‐MS.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.     

Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.     

Climate benefits of changing diet

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.     

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.