Scaling Properties of Biologically Active Scalar Concentration Fluctuations in the Atmospheric Surface Layer over a Managed Peatland

The higher-order scalar concentration fluctuation properties are examined in the context of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory for a variety of greenhouse gases that have distinct and separate source/sink locations along an otherwise ideal micrometeorological field site. Air temperature and concentrations of water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane were measured at high frequency (10 Hz) above a flat and extensive peat-land soil in the San Joaquin–Sacramento Delta (California, USA) area, subjected to year-round grazing by beef cattle. Because of the heterogeneous distribution of the sources and sinks of CO₂ and especially CH₄ emitted by cattle, the scaling behaviour of the higher-order statistical properties diverged from predictions based on a balance between their production and dissipation rate terms, which can obtained for temperature and H₂O during stationary conditions. We identify and label these departures as ‘exogenous’ because they depend on heterogeneities and non-stationarities induced by boundary conditions on the flow. Spectral analysis revealed that the exogenous effects show their signatures in regions with frequencies lower than those associated with scalar vertical transport by turbulence, though the two regions may partially overlap in some cases. Cospectra of vertical fluxes appear less influenced by these exogenous effects because of the modulating role of the vertical velocity at low frequencies. Finally, under certain conditions, the presence of such exogenous factors in higher-order scalar fluctuation statistics may be ‘fingerprinted’ by a large storage term in the mean scalar budget.     

The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe

Three violent eighteenth-century storms that ravaged the North Sea area (1703), western central Europe (1739) and Portugal (1739) are investigated from the point of view of their meteorological setting, their socio-economic impact, and whether and by what means they secured an enduring place in the cultural memory. The evidence draws on individual narrative sources such as chronicles and poems, and institutional sources such as ship’s logbooks and state-organised ‘windthrow’ inventories of tree loss. Each of the three storms had socio-economic impacts that could be described as ‘war-like’ in the damage caused to buildings and the destruction of forests. The “Great Storm” of December 1703 jeopardized English naval supremacy in the War of the Spanish Succession by sinking a number of Royal Navy ships and taking the life of more than 8000 seamen. In January 1739 two similarly destructive storms swept over mainland Europe. The cultural memory of the three events here considered was however strikingly different. The sequence of storms in January 1739 though being the most protracted of the last centuries, and well-chroniceled, did not persist in the collective memories of those in France, Switzerland and elsewhere who experienced them. Likewise, the “Great Storm” was quickly forgotten on the continent, whereas its memory remained deeply rooted in England through the writings of Defoe (1704). In Portugal the 1739 storm won a lasting place in the country’s cultural memory owing to two poems that it inspired. Furthermore, it was recorded in the Kingdom’s official newspaper, in the astronomical prognoses and in written records of the Old Regime’s cultural elite.     

Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios

We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010–2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040–2069) and late (2070–2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950–1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt’s hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however with large variability among GCMs. Agricultural water supplies will be negatively impacted, especially in the second half of the century.     

Hydrocarbons generated by hydropyrolysis of suspended marine particulate organic matter: Relationship to the oceanography of the Black Sea and the Rhodes Gyre

The suspended particulate organic matter, SPOM, in the autumnal Black Sea has been characterised using catalytic hydropyrolysis (HyPy) of the total (bound plus free) lipid material. The technique, which generates maximum yields of volatile products from sediments, kerogens and phytoplankton, was followed using gas chromatography and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The generated alkanes were dominated by n-C₁₈, hypothesised to arise predominantly from unsaturated C₁₈ fatty acids. Steranes were generated from reductive conversion of free and bound sterols. The generation of branched alkanes and especially of hopanes provided formal evidence for the participation of bacteria in the mineralisation of the SPOM. Whereas similar distributions of n-alkanes were generated from SPOM sampled from different depths of the comparatively well-stirred Rhodes Gyre (eastern Mediterranean), mineralisation of the SPOM at each depth of the central Black Sea produced characteristic changes in the composition and concentration of the HyPy products. Depth profiles of the n-alkanes generated from SPOM in the region of the Rim Current were affected by the local hydrography. Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of anthropogenic origin were present in the surface waters of the central Black Sea. Some methyl benzenes, thiophenes and pyrroles were also generated.     

Krieger’s conceptualization and measurement of discrimination and internalized oppression in studies of adverse health outcomes

Embodiment is a central concept in Krieger’s ecosocial theory, and is said to be of relevance to the understanding of the relationship between social conditions and a variety of adverse health outcomes. The most detailed empirical investigation of this in Krieger’s work is to be found in her studies of the relationship between racial discrimination and high blood pressure. Of especial relevance here is the idea of internalized oppression which is said to explain the observed association between self-reports of no racial discrimination and increased levels of blood pressure among working-class African Americans. Here we critically examine the empirical evidence pertaining to internalized oppression. Specifically, we focus on the measurement of the construct and the quality of the empirical evidence that has been presented in support of the hypothesis that there is an association between internalized oppression and adverse health outcomes. We argue that the validity of the concept has yet to be established and that the available data linking it to poor health outcomes are open to alternative explanations, notably measurement error and misclassification.

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Rheologies and ages of lava flows on Elysium Mons,Mars

We present results of our study of the rheologies and ages of lava flows in the Elysium Mons region of Mars. Previous studies have shown that the geometric dimensions of lava flows reflect rheological properties such as yield strength, effusion rate and viscosity. In this study the rheological properties of lava flows in the Elysium Mons region were determined and compared to the rheologies of the Ascraeus Mons lava flows. We also derived new crater size-frequency distribution measurements (CSFDs) for the Elysium lava flows to identify possible changes in the rheological properties with time. In addition, possible changes in the rheological properties with the distance from the caldera of Elysium Mons were analyzed.In total, 35 lava flows on and around Elysium Mons were mapped, and divided into three groups, lava flows on the flanks of Elysium Mons, in the plains between the three volcanoes Elysium Mons, Hecates and Albor Tholus and lava flows south of Albor Tholus. The rheological properties of 32 of these flows could be determined. Based on our morphometric measurements of each individual lava flow, estimates for the yield strengths, effusion rates, viscosities, and eruption duration of the studied lava flows were made. The yield strengths of the investigated lava flows range from ～3.8 × 10² Pa to ～1.5 × 10⁴ Pa, with an average of ～3.0 × 10³ Pa. These yield strengths are in good agreement with estimates for terrestrial basaltic lava flows. The effusion rates are on average ～747 m³ s^?1, ranging from ～99 to 4450 m³ s^?1. The viscosities are on average ～4.1 × 10⁶ Pa s, with a range of 1.2 × 10⁵ Pa s to 3.1 × 10⁷ Pa s. The eruption durations of the flows were calculated to be between 6 and 183 days, with an average of ～51 days. The determined rheological properties are generally very similar to those of other volcanic regions on Mars, such as on Ascraeus Mons in the Tharsis region. Calculated yield strengths and viscosities point to a basaltic/andesitic composition of the lava flows, similar to basaltic or andesitic a’a lava flows on Earth.Absolute model ages of all 35 lava flows on Elysium Mons were derived from crater size-frequency distribution measurements (CSFD). The derived model ages show a wide variation from about 632 Ma to 3460 Ma. Crater size-frequency distribution measurements of the Elysium Mons caldera show an age of ～1640 Ma, which is consistent with the resurfacing age of Werner (2009). Significant changes of the rheologies with time could not be observed. Similarly, we did not observe systematic changes in ages with increasing distances of lava flows from the Elysium Mons caldera.     

Evaluation of Density Corrections to Methane Fluxes Measured by Open-Path Eddy Covariance over Contrasting Landscapes

Corrections accounting for air density fluctuations due to heat and water vapour fluxes must be applied to the measurement of eddy-covariance fluxes when using open-path sensors. Experimental tests and ecosystem observations have demonstrated the important role density corrections play in accurately quantifying carbon dioxide \((\hbox {CO}_{2})\) fluxes, but less attention has been paid to evaluating these corrections for methane \((\hbox {CH}_{4})\) fluxes. We measured \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes with open-path sensors over a suite of sites with contrasting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) emissions and energy partitioning, including a pavement airfield, two negligible-flux ecosystems (drained alfalfa and pasture), and two high-flux ecosystems (flooded wetland and rice). We found that density corrections successfully re-zeroed fluxes in negligible-flux sites; however, slight overcorrection was observed above pavement. The primary impact of density corrections varied over negligible- and high-flux ecosystems. For negligible-flux sites, corrections led to greater than 100% adjustment in daily budgets, while these adjustments were only 3–10% in high-flux ecosystems. The primary impact to high-flux ecosystems was a change in flux diel patterns, which may affect the evaluation of relationships between biophysical drivers and fluxes if correction bias exists. Additionally, accounting for density effects to high-frequency \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluctuations led to large differences in observed \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) flux cospectra above negligible-flux sites, demonstrating that similar adjustments should be made before interpreting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) cospectra for comparable ecosystems. These results give us confidence in \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes measured by open-path sensors, and demonstrate that density corrections play an important role in adjusting flux budgets and diel patterns across a range of ecosystems.     

Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5–20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning ‘jumps' — abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds — wind, hail, tornadoes — is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.