Forecasting monthly precipitation using sequential modelling

In the hydrological cycle, rainfall is a major component and plays a vital role in planning and managing water resources. In this study, new generation deep learning models, recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), were applied for forecasting monthly rainfall, using long sequential raw data for time series analysis. “All-India” monthly average precipitation data for the period 1871–2016 were taken to build the models and they were tested on different homogeneous regions of India to check their robustness. From the results, it is evident that both the trained models (RNN and LSTM) performed well for different homogeneous regions of India based on the raw data. The study shows that a deep learning network can be applied successfully for time series analysis in the field of hydrology and allied fields to mitigate the risks of climatic extremes.     

A hybrid deterministic and stochastic approach for tsunami hazard assessment in Iquique,Chile

Natural Hazards - This paper presents an investigation of the collapse of a 325-year-old multi-tiered heritage temple during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Kathmandu, Nepal. The research comprises a...     

The study of indoor radon in the urban dwellings using plastic track detectors

Radon and its progeny have been recognized as one of the major contributors to the natural radiation and health hazards in the human dwellings. Even lung cancer is expected if it is present in enhanced levels beyond maximum permissible limit. This paper reports the measurements of indoor radon and its progeny in the urban dwellings of the Etah district of Uttar Pradesh province in Northern India using the cellulose nitrate (LR-115 type-II) plastic track detectors. It is found that the values of radon concentration vary from 3.52 to 248.64 Bq m⁻³ with a standard deviation of 69.19. The values of radon progeny concentration vary from 0.38 to 26.88 mWL with a standard deviation of 7.48. The effective dose has been calculated and found to vary from 0.05 to 3.76 mSv year⁻¹ with a standard deviation of 1.05. The lifetime fatality risk is found to vary from 0.04 × 10⁻⁴ to 2.90 × 10⁻⁴. The results have been compared with the results reported in the rural areas of the same district.     

Equations of motion of elliptic restricted problem of three bodies with variable mass

The differential equations of motion of the elliptic restricted problem of three bodies with decreasing mass are derived. The mass of the infinitesimal body varies with time. We have applied Jeans' law and the space-time transformation of Meshcherskii. In this problem the space-time transformation is applicable only in the special case whenn=1,k=0,q=1/2. We have applied Nechvile's transformation for the elliptic problem. We find that the equations of motion of our problem differ from that of constant mass only by a small perturbing force.     

Late Quaternary drainage reorganization assisted by surface faulting: The example of the Katrol Hill Fault zone,Kachchh, western India

Drainage reorganization on restricted temporal and spatial scales is poorly-documented. We attempt to decode the relatively complicated mechanism of drainage realignment involving two small rivers that show structurally controlled, highly anomalous channel networks. We provide geomorphic and shallow subsurface evidence using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) for the presence of a buried paleo-valley flowing northward through the wind gap and surface faulting along the range bounding Katrol Hill Fault (KHF) which correlates with the previously known three surface faulting events in last ~30 ka bp . Most of the present river channels and the KHF zone are occupied by aeolian miliolite (local name) which is stratigraphic and lithologic equivalent of the Late Quaternary carbonate rich aeolianite deposits occurring in several parts of the globe. The history of drainage evolution in the study area comprises pre-miliolite, syn-miliolite and post-miliolite phases. Geomorphic evidences show that the paleo-Gangeshwar River flowed north through the wind gap and paleo-valley, while the short paleo-Gunawari occupied the saddle zone to the east of Ler dome prior to and during the phase of miliolite deposition which ended by ~40 ka bp . Southward tilting of the Katrol Hill Range (KHR) due to surface faulting cut off the catchment of the paleo-Gangeshwar River. The abandoned catchment stream extended its channel eastward along the strike through top-down process while the paleo-Gunawari River extended its course westward by headward erosion (bottom-up process). As the channels advanced towards each other they joined to produce the “S”-shaped bend which formed the capture point. We conclude that multiple surface faulting events along the KHF in the last ~30 ka bp , resulted in uplift and tilting of the KHR which caused drainage realignment by river diversion, beheading and river capture. Our study shows that the complexity of drainage reorganization processes is more explicit on shorter rather than longer timescales.     

Clay mineralogy of the ocean sediments from the Wilkes Land margin,east Antarctica: implications on the paleoclimate,provenance and sediment dispersal pattern

Core U1359 collected from the continental rise off Wilkes Land, east Antarctica, is analyzed for the clay mineralogy and carbon content. The temporal variation of the clay mineralogical data shows a dominance of illite with chlorite, smectite and kaolinite in decreasing concentration. Clay mineral illite is negatively correlated with smectite which shows enrichment during 6.2–6.8, 5.5–5.8, 4.5 and 2.5 Ma. The mineralogical analyses on the silt size fraction (2–53 μm) of some selected samples were also carried out. The combined result of both the size fractions shows the presence of chlorite and illite in both size fractions, smectite and kaolinite only in clay size fraction (<2 μm) and similarity in the crystallinity and chemistry of illite in both fractions. Similar nature of illite in both fractions suggests negligible role of sorting probably due to the deposition from the waxing ice sheet. During times of ice growth, nearby cratonic east Antarctica shield provided biotite-rich sediments to the depositional site. On the other hand, the presence of smectite, only in the clay size fraction, suggests the effective role of sorting probably due to the deposition from distal source in ice retreat condition. During times of ice retreat, smectite-rich sediment derived from Ross Orogen is transported to the core site through surface or bottom water currents. Poor crystallinity of illite due to degradation further corroborates the ice retreat condition. The ice sheet proximal sediments of U1359 show that in the eastern part of Wilkes Land, the ‘warming’ was initiated during late Miocene.     

Performance evaluation of normalized difference chlorophyll index in northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries using the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) was used to derive chlorophyll-a (chl-a) based on the normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI) in two Gulf of Mexico coastal estuaries. Chl-a data were acquired from discrete in situ water sample analysis and above-water hyperspectral surface acquisition system (HyperSAS) remote sensing reflectance in Pensacola Bay (PB) and Choctawhatchee Bay (CB). NDCI algorithm calibrations and validations were completed on HICO data. Linear and best-fit (polynomial) calibrations performed strongly with R² of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively. The best validation of NDCI resulted with an R² of 0.74 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.64 µg/L. A strong spatial correspondence was observed between NDCI and chl-a, with higher NDCI associated with higher chl-a and these areas were primarily located in the northern PB and eastern CB at the river mouths. NDCI could be effectively used as a qualitative chl-a monitoring tool with a reduced need for site-specific calibration.     

Kinetic Alfven waves in plasma sheet boundary layer—particle aspect analysis

The particle aspect approach is adopted to investigate the trajectories of charged particles in the electromagnetic field of kinetic Alfven wave. Expressions are found for the dispersion relation, damping rate and associated currents in homogenous plasma. Kinetic effects of electrons and ions are included to study kinetic Alfven wave because both are important in the transition region. It is found that the ratio β of electron thermal energy density to magnetic field energy density and the ratio of ion to electron thermal temperature (T_i/T_e) affect the dispersion relation, damping-rate and associated currents in both cases (warm and cold electron limits). The treatment of kinetic Alfven wave instability is based on the assumption that the plasma consists of resonant and non-resonant particles. The resonant particles participate in an energy exchange process, whereas the non-resonant particles support the oscillatory motion of the wave.