Predictions of Solar Cycle 24

A summary and analysis of more than 50 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. All of the predictions were published before solar minimum and represent our efforts to anticipate solar maximum at ever-earlier epochs. The consistency of the predictions within their assigned categories is discussed. Estimates of the significance of the predictions, compared to the climatological average, are presented.     

Temperature dependence of CO2 solubility in high pressure quenched glasses of diopside composition

The temperature dependence of carbon dioxide solubility in glasses of diopside composition, quenched from 20 kbar, has been investigated using a combination of high-temperature mass spectrometry and Raman spectroscopy.CO₂-charged diopside glasses were synthesized in a piston-cylinder apparatus. Because of diffusion of hydrogen through the platinum capsules, significant amounts of H₂O, CH₄ and CO were detected along with CO: in the diopside glasses. All three carbon species show a bimodal release pattern in the mass pyrograms. The CO₂ solubility shows a linear and negative temperature dependence. We do not observe any maxima in the solubility curve as was reported previously (Mysen and virgo, 1980a).None of the additional bands observed in Raman spectra of CO₂-charged diopside glasses compared to those in the spectrum of diopside glass can be assigned to molecular CO₂. These bands are caused by CO^?2₃ ions and indicate that the physical solubility of molecular carbon dioxide is negligible. The bimodal release pattern observed for CO₂ in the mass pyrograms, is consistent with the Raman data which strongly suggests that CO^?2₃ ions are present in at least two distinct sites in the glass.     

Eddy correlation measurements of CO2, latent heat,and sensible heat fluxes over a crop surface

Eddy correlation equipment was used to measure mass and energy fluxes over a soybean crop. A rapid response CO₂ sensor, a drag anemometer, a Lyman-alpha hygrometer and a fine wire thermocouple were used to sense the fluctuating quantities.Diurnal fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat and CO₂ were calculated from these data. Energy budget closure was obtained by summing the sensible and latent heat fluxes determined by eddy correlation which balanced the sum of net radiation and soil heat flux. Peak daytime CO₂ fluxes were near 1.0 mg m^–2 (ground area) s^–1.The eddy correlation technique was also employed in this study to measure nocturnal CO₂ fluxes caused by respiration from plants, soil, and roots. These CO₂ fluxes ranged from - 0.1 to - 0.25 mg m^–2s^–1.From the data collected over mature soybeans, a relationship between CO₂ flux and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was developed. The crop did not appear to be light-saturated at PAR flux densities < 1800 Ei m^–2 s^–1. The light compensation point was found to be about 160 Ei m^–2 s^–1.Published as Paper No. 7402, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station Project 27-003 and Regional Research Project 11–33.Post-doctoral Research Associate, Professor and Professor, respectively. Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728.     

A climate-related oxidizing event in deep-sea sediment from the Bering Sea

Many cores from the deep basins of the Bering Sea have a thin oxidized zone within otherwise reduced sediment. This oxidized zone began to form about 6000 yr ago and represents an interval of about 3200 yr. Mineralogically, the oxidized and reduced sediments are similar, but chemically they differ. Concentrations of Fe and C are lower, and concentrations of Mn, Ba, Co, Mo, and Ni are higher in the oxidized than in the reduced sediment. Mn is enriched about 10-fold in the oxidized zone relative to its concentration in the reduced sediment, Mo about threefold, and Ba, Co, and Ni about twofold. These data suggest that the oxidized zone developed diagenetically as the result of the balance between the flux of organic matter and the available dissolved oxygen in bottom and interstitial waters.We propose that the Bering Sea was substantially ice covered when global glacial conditions prevailed. during the transition to global interglacial conditions, seasonal meltwater from thawing sea ice formed a lens of fresh water that decreased organic productivity. During the winter seasons, however, sea ice reformed and caused downwelling of dense, oxygen-rich waters to recharge bottom waters. The combination of lower organic productivity and more oxygen-rich bottom water allowed oxidized sediment to accumulate. Once full interglacial conditions were established, the volume of sea ice produced was insufficient to affect either productivity or the supply of dissolved oxygen and so bottom conditions again became reducing.Similar events probably occurred during the onset of global glacial conditions, and similar oxidized layers probably formed at these times. Such oxidized zones are highly unstable, however, in a reducing environment and, once buried beyond the influence of bacterial and infaunal activities, are depleted of their available oxygen and converted to reduced sediment.     

The Late Pleistocene Afton Lodge Clay Formation,Ayrshire, Scotland: evidence for Early to Middle Devensian climatic changes and Late Devensian onshore ice flow and rafting from the Firth of Clyde

An investigation into the late Pleistocene sediments exposed at Afton Lodge has helped to clarify the glacial history of western central Scotland. The sequence includes several allochthonous bodies of ‘shelly clay’ (Afton Lodge Clay Formation) associated with Late Devensian (Weichselian) age diamict. The shelly clay contains abundant marine macro- and microfauna, as well as palynomorphs consistent with its deposition within a shallow marine to estuarine environment. Faunal changes within the main body of marine clay record at least one, millennial-scale cycle of Arctic-Boreal, to Boreal, and back to Arctic-Boreal climatic conditions. A radiocarbon date of over 41 ka ¹⁴C BP obtained from the foraminifera indicates that the marine clays are older than the surrounding till. Afton Lodge is thus one of a suite of ‘high-level’ shelly clay occurrences around the Scottish coasts that are now considered to be glacially transported. Together with closely associated ‘shelly tills’, the rafts were emplaced during an early phase of the last glaciation by ice flowing from the western Grampian Highlands of Scotland through the topographically-confined Firth of Clyde basin. The blocks of marine sediment were detached subglacially, unfrozen, and carried at least 10 km by ice that splayed out onshore against reversed slopes favouring raft emplacement and the creation of closely associated ribbed moraine. Transport of the rafts was facilitated by water-lubricated décollement surfaces and their accretion was accompanied by dewatering. The shelly tills were formed mainly by the attenuation and crushing of rafts of shelly clay during their transport within the subglacial deforming bed.     

Vertical Structure Of Turbulence In Offshore Flow During Rasex

The adjustment of the boundary layer immediately downstream froma coastline is examined based on two levels of eddy correlation data collected on a mast at the shore and six levels of eddy correlation data and profiles of mean variables collected from a mast 2 km offshore during the Risø Air-Sea Experiment. The characteristics of offshore flow are studied in terms of case studies and inter-variable relationships for the entire one-month data set. A turbulent kinetic energy budget is constructed for each case study.The buoyancy generation of turbulence is small compared to shear generation and dissipation. However, weakly stable and weakly unstable cases exhibit completely different vertical structure. With flow of warm air from land over cooler water, modest buoyancy destruction of turbulence and reduced shear generation of turbulence over the less rough sea surface cause the turbulence to rapidly weaken downstream from the coast. The reduction of downward mixing of momentum by the stratification leads to smaller roughness lengths compared to the unstable case. Shear generation at higher levels and advection of stronger turbulence from land often lead to an increase of stress and turbulence energy with height and downward transport of turbulence energy toward the surface.With flow of cool air over a warmer sea surface, a convective internal boundary layer develops downstream from the coast. An overlying relatively thick layer of downward buoyancy flux (virtual temperature flux) is sometimes maintained by shear generation in the accelerating offshore flow.     

Efficient reservoir history matching using subspace vectors

In this paper, we describe a method of history matching in which changes to the reservoir model are constructed from a limited set of basis vectors. The purpose of this reparameterization is to reduce the cost of a Newton iteration, without altering the final estimate of model parameters and without substantially slowing the rate of convergence. The utility of a subspace method depends on several factors, including the choice and number of the subspace vectors to be used. Computational gains in efficiency result partly from a reduction in the size of the matrix system that must be solved in a Newton iteration. More important contributions, however, result from a reduction in the number of sensitivity coefficients that must be computed, reduction in the dimensions of the matrices that must be multiplied, and elimination of matrix products involving the inverse of the prior model covariance matrix. These factors affect the efficiency of each Newton iteration. Although computation of the optimal set of subspace vectors may be expensive, we show that the rate of convergence and the final results are somewhat insensitive to the choice of subspace vectors. We also show that it is desirable to start with a small number of subspace vectors and gradually increase the number at each Newton iteration until an acceptable level of data mismatch is obtained.     

Seyfert galaxies and the cosmic γ-ray diffuse background

Three active galaxies, generally classified as Seyferts, have been discovered recently to be powerful, low energy -ray sources. The similarity between their spectral characteristics and those of the cosmic background at -ray energies suggests that these objects could make a significant contribution to this diffuse flux. This contribution has been assessed using two different number densities of -ray-emitting Seyfert galaxies based on optical and X-ray data. The comparison of the estimated and measured diffuse -ray background intensities is used to gain a deeper understanding of the metabolism of Seyfert galaxies.     

建筑塔机吊装作业GNSS精准定点放样

GNSS是塔机精准管控重要传感器之一,基于伪距的米级定位因精度低不适应智能化塔机发展要求,为提高塔机GNSS位置定位精度,本文利用一种基于GNSS载波相位观测值的精密定位方法,提出一种GNSS精准定点放样方法,应用于建筑塔机智能指挥中。设计并开发了一套基于GNSS的塔机吊装作业定点放样辅助系统（GNSS_PLS）。初步试验结果表明：GNSS_PLS系统的智能指挥精度在厘米级水平,本文算法是行之有效的。