A high-quality monthly total cloud amount dataset for Australia

A high-quality monthly total cloud amount dataset for 165 stations has been developed for monitoring and assessing long-term trends in cloud cover over Australia. The dataset is based on visual 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. observations of total cloud amount, with most records starting around 1957. The quality control process involved examination of historical station metadata, together with an objective statistical test comparing candidate and reference cloud series. Individual cloud series were also compared against rainfall and diurnal temperature range series from the same site, and individual cloud series from neighboring sites. Adjustments for inhomogeneities caused by relocations and changes in observers were applied, as well as adjustments for biases caused by the shift to daylight saving time in the summer months. Analysis of these data reveals that the Australian mean annual total cloud amount is characterised by high year-to-year variability and shows a weak, statistically non-significant increase over the 1957–2007 period. A more pronounced, but also non-significant, decrease from 1977 to 2007 is evident. A strong positive correlation is found between all-Australian averages of cloud amount and rainfall, while a strong negative correlation is found between mean cloud amount and diurnal temperature range. Patterns of annual and seasonal trends in cloud amount are in general agreement with rainfall changes across Australia, however the high-quality cloud network is too coarse to fully capture topographic influences. Nevertheless, the broadscale consistency between patterns of cloud and rainfall variations indicates that the new total cloud amount dataset is able to adequately describe the broadscale patterns of change over Australia. Favourable simple comparisons between surface and satellite measures of cloudiness suggest that satellites may ultimately provide the means for monitoring long-term changes in cloud over Australia. However, due to the relative shortness and homogeneity problems of the satellite record, a robust network of surface cloud observations will be required for many years to come.     

Response of a mid‐latitude cirque glacier to climate over the last two decades: Mangaehuehu Glacier,Mt Ruapehu

The recent loss of mountain glaciers in response to climate warming has been reported across a range of latitudes globally, but the processes involved are not always straightforward. In southern Pacific mid‐latitudes, twentieth‐century glacier fluctuations are thought to reflect the strength of westerly atmospheric circulation, which brings increased precipitation, leading to mass gains. We present a study of the response of Mangaehuehu Glacier, a cirque glacier on Mt Ruapehu, to climate over the last two decades. Glacier surface area fluctuated in size over this period, corresponding closely with mean end‐of‐summer snowlines in the Southern Alps. The key control on glacier extent appears to be ablation season temperature, itself controlled by regional atmospheric circulation, including El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and to a lesser extent, Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trophic cascades and future harmful algal blooms within ice-free Arctic Seas north of Bering Strait: A simulation analysis

Within larger ice-free regions of the western Arctic Seas, subject to ongoing trophic cascades induced by past overfishing, as well as to possible future eutrophication of the drainage basins of the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers, prior very toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) – first associated with ∼100 human deaths near Sitka, Alaska in 1799 – may soon expand. Blooms of calcareous coccolithophores in the Bering Sea during 1997–1998 were non-toxic harbingers of the subsequent increments of other non-siliceous phytoplankton. But, now saxitoxic dinoflagellates, e.g. Alexandrium tamarense, were instead found by us within the adjacent downstream Chukchi Sea during SBI cruises of 2002 and 2003. A previous complex, coupled biophysical model had been validated earlier by ship-board observations from the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas during the summer of 2002. With inclusion of phosphorus as another chemical state variable to modulate additional competition by recently observed nitrogen-fixers, we now explore here the possible consequences of altered composition of dominant phytoplankton functional groups [diatoms, microflagellates, prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis colonies, coccolithophores, diazotrophs, and dinoflagellates] in relation to increases of the toxic A. tamarense, responding to relaxation of grazing pressure by herbivores north of Bering Strait as part of a continuing trophic cascade. Model formulation was guided by validation observations obtained during 2002–2004 from: cruises of the SBI, CHINARE, and CASES programs; moored arrays in Bering Strait; other RUSALCA cruises around Wrangel Island; and SBI helicopter surveys of the shelf-break regions of the Arctic basin. Our year-long model scenarios during 2002–2003 indicate that post bloom silica-limitation of diatoms, after smaller simulated spring grazing losses, led to subsequent competitive advantages in summer for the coccolithophores, dinoflagellates, and diazotrophs. Immediate top-down control is exerted by imposed grazing pressures of the model’s herbivores and bottom-up control is also effected by light-, nitrate-, ammonium-, silicate-, and phosphate-modulated competition among the six functional groups of the simulated phytoplankton community. Similar to the history of the southern North Sea adjacent to the Rhine River, possible farming of northwestern Alaska and Canada, in conjunction with other human activities of ice retreat and overfishing, may lead to future exacerbations of poisonous phytoplankton. These potential killers include both toxic dinoflagellate and diazotroph HABs, deadly to terrestrial and marine mammals, as well as those of prymnesiophytes, some of which have already foamed beaches, while others have killed fishes of European waters.     

Evaluation and error analysis: Kalman gain regularization versus covariance regularization

Ensemble size is critical to the efficiency and performance of the ensemble Kalman filter, but when the ensemble size is small, the Kalman gain generally cannot be well estimated. To reduce the negative effect of spurious correlations, a regularization process applied on either the covariance or the Kalman gain seems to be necessary. In this paper, we evaluate and compare the estimation errors when two regularization methods including the distance-dependent localization and the bootstrap-based screening are applied on the covariance and on the Kalman gain. The investigations were carried out through two examples: 1D linear problem without dynamics but for which the true Kalman gain can be computed and a 2D highly nonlinear reservoir fluid flow problem. The investigation resulted in three primary conclusions. First, if localizations of two covariance matrices are not consistent, the estimate of the Kalman gain will generally be poor at the observation location. The consistency condition can be difficult to apply for nonlocal observations. Second, the estimate of the Kalman gain that results from covariance regularization is generally subject to greater errors than the estimate of the Kalman gain that results from Kalman gain regularization. Third, in terms of removing spurious correlations in the estimation of spatially correlated variables, the performance of screening Kalman gain is comparable as the performance of localization methods (applied on either covariance or Kalman gain), but screening Kalman gain outperforms the localization methods in terms of generality for application, as the screening method can be used for estimating both spatially correlated and uncorrelated variables, and moreover, no assumption about the prior covariance is required for the screening method.     

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was launched on 11 February 2010 at 15:23 UT from Kennedy Space Center aboard an Atlas V 401 (AV-021) launch vehicle. A?series of apogee-motor firings lifted SDO from an initial geosynchronous transfer orbit into a circular geosynchronous orbit inclined by 28° about the longitude of the SDO-dedicated ground station in New Mexico. SDO began returning science data on 1 May 2010. SDO is the first space-weather mission in NASA’s Living With a Star (LWS) Program. SDO’s main goal is to understand, driving toward a predictive capability, those solar variations that influence life on Earth and humanity’s technological systems. The SDO science investigations will determine how the Sun’s magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is released into the heliosphere and geospace as the solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar irradiance. Insights gained from SDO investigations will also lead to an increased understanding of the role that solar variability plays in changes in Earth’s atmospheric chemistry and climate. The SDO mission includes three scientific investigations (the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI)), a spacecraft bus, and a dedicated ground station to handle the telemetry. The Goddard Space Flight Center built and will operate the spacecraft during its planned five-year mission life; this includes: commanding the spacecraft, receiving the science data, and forwarding that data to the science teams. The science investigations teams at Stanford University, Lockheed Martin Solar Astrophysics Laboratory (LMSAL), and University of Colorado Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) will process, analyze, distribute, and archive the science data. We will describe the building of SDO and the science that it will provide to NASA.     

Experimental Effects of the Grass Shrimp, Palaemonetes pugio, on Hard-Substrate Communities in Chesapeake Bay and an Adjacent Coastal Bay, USA

With increased shoreline hardening and development, it is important to understand the ecological processes occurring in these and adjacent coastal habitats. A common species found associated with these hard-substrate habitats in Chesapeake Bay is the grass shrimp, Palaemonetes pugio. Caging experiments were conducted from June to August 2010 to examine the effects of shrimp on the recruitment and development of hard-substrate communities. Experiments were conducted at two low-salinity sites within Chesapeake Bay and one high-salinity site in an adjacent coastal bay in Virginia. The addition of grass shrimp reduced recruitment of polychaetes and scyphistomae of the sea nettle, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, and increased recruitment of encrusting bryozoans and the oyster, Crassostrea virginica. After 12?weeks, sea nettles at one low-salinity site, dominated predator-exclusion treatments. At the high-salinity site, oysters dominated when shrimp were present. Although it is unclear whether the results of short-term caging studies can be applied across larger temporal and spatial scales, the significant effects of grass shrimp on two important Chesapeake Bay species suggests that increases in hard-substrate habitat could have broader impacts within this and other systems.     

Characterization of lake water and ground water movement in the littoral zone of Williams Lake,a closed‐basin lake in north central Minnesota

Williams Lake, Minnesota is a closed‐basin lake that is a flow‐through system with respect to ground water. Ground‐water input represents half of the annual water input and most of the chemical input to the lake. Chemical budgets indicate that the lake is a sink for calcium, yet surficial sediments contain little calcium carbonate. Sediment pore‐water samplers (peepers) were used to characterize solute fluxes at the lake‐water–ground‐water interface in the littoral zone and resolve the apparent disparity between the chemical budget and sediment data. Pore‐water depth profiles of the stable isotopes δ¹⁸O and δ²H were non‐linear where ground water seeped into the lake, with a sharp transition from lake‐water values to ground‐water values in the top 10 cm of sediment. These data indicate that advective inflow to the lake is the primary mechanism for solute flux from ground water. Linear interstitial velocities determined from δ²H profiles (316 to 528 cm/yr) were consistent with velocities determined independently from water budget data and sediment porosity (366 cm/yr). Stable isotope profiles were generally linear where water flowed out of the lake into ground water. However, calcium profiles were not linear in the same area and varied in response to input of calcium carbonate from the littoral zone and subsequent dissolution. The comparison of pore‐water calcium profiles to pore‐water stable isotope profiles indicate calcium is not conservative. Based on the previous understanding that 40–50 % of the calcium in Williams Lake is retained, the pore‐water profiles indicate aquatic plants in the littoral zone are recycling the retained portion of calcium. The difference between the pore‐water depth profiles of calcium and δ¹⁸O and δ²H demonstrate the importance of using stable isotopes to evaluate flow direction and source through the lake‐water–ground‐water interface and evaluate mechanisms controlling the chemical balance of lakes. Published in 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.