Crop yield model validation for Cameroon

A crop simulation model must first be capable of representing the actual performance of crops grown in any region before it can be applied to the prediction of climate variability and change impacts. A cropping systems model (CropSyst) simulations of crop productivity in the sub-Saharan Central African (using Cameroon as the case study) region, under the current climate were compared with observed yields of maize, sorghum, groundnut, bambara groundnut and soybean from eight sites. The model produced both over-and-under estimates, but with a mean percentage difference of only –2.8%, ranging from –0.6% to –4.5%. Based on these results, we judged the CropSyst simulations sufficiently reliable to justify use of the model in assessing crop growth vulnerability to climatic changes in Cameroon and else where.     

Soiling of limestone in an urban environment characterized by heavy vehicular exhaust emissions

The inorganic and organic chemical composition of weathering sulphate patinas on the limestone walls of Emmanuel College, Cambridge, UK, have been analysed by FT-IR spectroscopy, pyrolysis gas-chromatography/mass spectrometry and scanning electron microscopy. The College location is characterized by heavy vehicular exhaust emissions including those from diesel powered public transport vehicles due to its proximity to the main Cambridge coach station. A complex mixture of gaseous and particulate air pollutants are found deposited in the weathering patinas including organic compounds (such as PAHs), which represent markers for present-day vehicular pollution. Slight differences in composition between patinas collected at different heights on the building facades with, in particular, more evidence for a biogenic overprint in samples collected at roof level as opposed to ground (street) level are found. Analytical results confirm how building stones in urban areas acted in the past and still do today as passive repositories for any kind of gaseous and particulate air pollutant present in the surrounding atmosphere; accordingly, weathering patinas are slowly changing their composition to accommodate new classes of present-day air pollutants.     

The distribution of daily snow water equivalent in the central Italian Alps

The statistical distribution of the daily Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is investigated for a network of gauging stations in the Alpine part of Lombardia region, in the central Italian Alps. An event based data analysis is carried out using a 14 year long data set dating back to 1989. SWE is estimated when the new snow depth is greater than 6 cm. The SWE sample average in time is shown to be related to physiographic attributes of the gauging area, thus not being homogeneous in space. The values of SWE scaled by their average, or index value, instead show well approximated homogeneity of the second order moment, or coefficient of variation, in space. This suggests the use of a regional approach for frequency estimation of SWE. The frequency of occurrence of the normalized values of SWE is evaluated and tentatively accommodated by four probability distributions, often adopted in statistical modeling of hydrological variables. The Lognormal distribution shows the best performance. Single site distribution fitting is then carried out using the regional distribution, providing satisfactory results.     

Source parameters and stress release of seismic sequences occurred in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia

The source parameters of the major events of a swarm and of two seismic sequences, occurred in the Friuli area (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia, were estimated. The Claut swarm (C96) occurred since the end of January to June 1996, with a M_D 4.3 major shock and it appears composed of three sub-sequences. The two sequences are the Kobarid sequence (K98) started on April 12, 1998 with a M_D 5.6 mainshock and the M.te Sernio (S02) sequence caused by the February 14, 2002 earthquake (M_D = 4.9). Acceleration and velocity data recorded by the local seismic network of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimenale (OGS) and corrected for attenuation, were employed to estimate seismic moments and radiated energies. Source dimensions were inferred from the computed corner frequencies and the stress release was estimated from the Brune stress drop, the apparent stress and the RMS stress drop. On the whole, seismic moments range from 1.7 × 10¹² to 1.1 × 10¹⁷ N m, and radiated energies are in the range 10⁶–10¹³ J. Brune stress drops are scattered and do not show any evidence of a self-similarity breakdown for sources down to 130 m radius. The radiated seismic energy scales as a function of seismic moment, with a slope of the scaling relation that decreases for increasing seismic moments.The mechanism of stress release was analyzed by computing the ɛ parameter of Zuniga [Zuniga, R., 1993. Frictional overshoot and partial stress drop. Which one? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83, 939–944]. The K98 and S02 sequences are characterized by a wide range of the ɛ parameter with stress drop mechanism varying from partial locking to overshoot cases. The ɛ values of the C96 swarm are more homogeneous and close to the Orowan's condition. The radiated seismic energy and the ratio of stress drop between mainshock and aftershocks appear different among the analyzed cases. We therefore investigated the relationship between the stress parameters of the main shock and the energy radiated by the aftershock sequences. For this purpose, we also estimated the source parameters of two other sequences occurred in the area, with mainshocks of M_D 4.1 and 5.1, respectively. We found a positive correlation between the Brune stress drop of the mainshock and the ratio between the radiated energy of the mainshock and the summation of the energies radiated by the aftershocks.     

Review of Microgravity Observations at Mt. Etna: A Powerful Tool to Monitor and Study Active Volcanoes

Microgravity observations at Mt. Etna have been routinely performed as both discrete (since 1986) and continuous (since 1998) measurements. In addition to describing the methodology for acquiring and reducing gravity data from Mt. Etna, this paper provides a collection of case studies aimed at demonstrating the potential of microgravity to investigate the plumbing system of an active volcano and detect forerunners to paroxysmal volcanic events. For discrete gravity measurements, results from 1994–1996 and 2001 are reported. During the first period, the observed gravity changes are interpreted within the framework of the Strombolian activity which occurred from the summit craters. Gravity changes observed during the first nine months of 2001 are directly related to subsurface mass redistributions which preceded, accompanied and followed the July-August 2001 flank eruption of Mt. Etna. Two continuous gravity records are discussed: a 16-month (October 1998 to February 2000) sequence and a 48-hour (26–28 October, 2002) sequence, both from a station within a few kilometers of the volcano's summit. The 16-month record may be the longest continuous gravity sequence ever acquired at a station very close to the summit zone of an active volcano. By cross analyzing it with contemporaneous discrete observations along a summit profile of stations, both the geometry of a buried source and its time evolution can be investigated. The shorter continuous sequence encompasses the onset of an eruption from a location only 1.5 km from the gravity station. This gravity record is useful for establishing constraints on the characteristics of the intrusive mechanism leading to the eruption. In particular, the observed gravity anomaly indicates that the magma intrusion occurred “passively” within a fracture system opened by external forces.     

Alert system to mitigate tephra fallout hazards at Mt. Etna Volcano,Italy

Volcanic eruptions may create a wide range of risks in inhabited areas and, as a consequence, major economic damage to the surrounding territory. An example of volcanic hazard was given between 1998 and 2001 by Mt. Etna volcano, in Italy, with its frequent paroxysmal explosive activity that caused more than a hundred fire-fountain episodes. In the period January–June 2000, in particular, 64 lava fountains took place at the Southeast Crater. During the most intense explosive phase of each episode, a sustained column often formed, reaching up to 6 km above the eruptive vent. Then, the column started to expand laterally causing more or less copious tephra fallout on the slopes of Etna; ash and lapilli, therefore, constituted a serious danger for vehicular and air traffic. A software and hardware warning system was developed to mitigate the volcanic hazard indicating the areas affected by potential ash and lapilli fallout. The alert system was mainly based on the good correspondence between the pattern of volcanic tremor amplitude and the evolution of explosive activity. When a fixed tremor threshold was exceeded, a semiautomatic process started to send faxes to Civil Defence and Municipalities directly affected by tephra fallout, together with information on wind directions from the Meteorological Office. The application of this methodology, during the last 14 eruptive episodes in 2000 and the 14 events occurred in 2001, demonstrated the good correspondence between the forecasts on the areas affected by tephra fallout and the effective tephra distribution on land. Despite the integrity of the performance provided by the alert system, small discrepancies occurred in the technical procedure of alerting, for which possible solutions have been discussed. The improvement of this type of system, could become basic for the Etnean region and be proposed for similar volcanic areas throughout the world.