Effects of pore-scale dispersion,degree of heterogeneity,sampling size,and source volume on the concentration moments of conservative solutes in heterogeneous formations

Pore-scale dispersion (PSD), aquifer heterogeneity, sampling volume, and source size influence solute concentrations of conservative tracers transported in heterogeneous porous formations. In this work, we developed a new set of analytical solutions for the concentration ensemble mean, variance, and coefficient of variation (CV), which consider the effects of all these factors. We developed these models as generalizations of the first-order solutions in the log-conductivity variance of point concentration proposed by [Fiori A, Dagan G. Concentration fluctuations in aquifer transport: a rigorous first-order solution and applications. J Contam Hydrol 2000;45(1–2):139–163]. Our first-order solutions compare well with numerical simulations for small and moderate formation heterogeneity and from small to large sampling and source volumes. However, their performance deteriorates for highly heterogeneous formations. Successively, we used our models to study the interplay among sampler size, source volume, and PSD. Our analysis shows a complex and important interaction among these factors. Additionally, we show that the relative importance of these factors is also a function of plume age, of aquifer heterogeneity, and of the measurement location with respect to the mean plume center of gravity. We found that the concentration moments are chiefly controlled by the sampling volume with pore-scale dispersion playing a minor role at short times and for small source volumes. However, the effect of the source volume cannot be neglected when it is larger than the sampling volume. A different behavior occurs for long periods, which may be relevant for old contaminations, or for small injection volumes. In these cases, PSD causes a significant dilution, which is reflected in the concentration statistics. Additionally, at the center of the mean plume, where high concentrations are most likely to occur, we found that sampling volume and PSD are attenuating mechanisms for both concentration ensemble mean and coefficient of variation, except at very large source and sampler sizes, where the coefficient of variation increases with sampler size and PSD. Formation heterogeneity causes a faster reduction of the ensemble mean concentrations and a larger uncertainty at the center of the mean plume. Therefore, our results highlight the importance of considering the combined effect of formation heterogeneity, exposure volume, PSD, source size, and measurement location in performing risk assessment.     

Water table variations in Atacama Desert alluvial fans: discussion of “Evidence of short-term groundwater recharge signal propagation from the Andes to the central Atacama Desert: a singular spectrum analysis approach”*

ABSTRACT

Using a statistical approach, Scheihing attempts to demonstrate the direct influence of recharge events in the Precordillera and the Andean Piedmont on water table variations in downstream alluvial fans. The author “unquestionably” discards the existence of ephemeral recharge processes in alluvial fans although they are frequently impacted by major floods. However, the author does not consider previous publications about recharge processes in arid alluvial fans, the hydraulic setting of the Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) and anthropogenic pressure changes in the PTA. Because the sustainable management of groundwater resources in drylands depends on a good understanding of hydrogeological processes, we propose a thorough reinterpretation of the short- and long-term PTA water table variations addressed by the author. In this comment, we illustrate the limits of the sole use of a statistical approach for characterizing both recharge processes and factors controlling the water table variations in the Atacama Desert.     

A multi-arc approach for chaotic orbit determination problems

Chaotic dynamical systems are characterized by the existence of a predictability horizon, connected to the notion of Lyapunov time, beyond which predictions of the state of the system are meaningless. In order to study the main features of orbit determination in the presence of chaos, Spoto and Milani (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 124:295–309, 2016) applied the classical least-squares fit and differential correction algorithm to determine a chaotic orbit and a dynamical parameter of a simple discrete system—Chirikov standard map (cf. Chirikov in Phys Rep 52:263, 1979)—with observations distributed beyond the predictability horizon. They found a time limit beyond which numerical calculations are affected by numerical instability: the computability horizon. In this article, we aim at pushing forward such inherent obstacle to numerical calculations in chaotic orbit determination by applying the classical and the constrained multi-arc method (cf. Alessi et al. in Mon Not R Astron Soc 423:2270–2278, 2012) to the same dynamical system. These strategies entail the determination of an orbit when observations are grouped in separate observed arcs. For each arc, a set of initial conditions is determined and, in the case of the constrained multi-arc method, all subsequent arcs are constrained to belong to the same trajectory. We show that the use of these techniques in place of the standard least-squares method has significant advantages: Not only can we perform accurate numerical calculations well beyond the computability horizon, in particular, the constrained multi-arc strategy improves considerably the determination of the dynamical parameter.     

Luminescence dating of Late Pleistocene faults as evidence of uplift and active tectonics in Sardinia,W Mediterranean

Precise dating of the activity of Late Pleistocene to Holocene neo‐tectonic structures is crucial to quantify the rate of deformation in low‐seismicity regions. Sardinia is a relatively stable continental fragment set in the middle of the tectonically active Western Mediterranean belt. This paper provides evidences of significant uplift of northwest Sardinia that support an ongoing tectonic activity since the Marine Isotopic Stage 7 (MIS 7; ca. 220 ka). In particular, it documents for the first time Late Pleistocene to Holocene tectonics based on luminescence dating of travertine sealing a major NNE‐SSW fault.     

Potentially modified hydropower production under climate change in the Italian Alps

We present an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower production within a paradigmatic, very highly exploited cryospheric area of upper Valtellina valley in the Italian Alps. Based on dependable and unique hydrological measures from our high‐altitude hydrometric network Idrostelvio during 2006–2015, we set up the Poly‐Hydro model to mimic the cryospheric processes driving hydrological flow formation in this high‐altitude area. We then set up an optimization tool, which we call Poly‐Power, to maximize the revenue of the plant manager under given hydrological regimes, namely, by proper operation of the hydroelectric production scheme (reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants) of the area. We then pursue hydrological projections until 2100, feeding Poly‐Hydro with the downscaled outputs of three general circulation models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, under the scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We assess hydrological flows in two reference decades, that is, at half century (2040–2049), and end of century (2090–2099). We then feed the so obtained hydrological scenarios as inputs to Poly‐Power, and we project future production of hydroelectric power, with and without reoperation of the system. The average annual stream flows for hydropower production decreases along the century under our scenarios (?21 to +7%, on average ? 5% at half century; ?17 to ?2%, average ? 8%, end of century), with ice cover melting unable to offset such decrease. Reduction in snowfall and increase in liquid rainfall are the main factors affecting the modified hydrological regime. Energy production (and revenues) at half century may increase under our scenarios (?9 to +15%, +3% on average). At the end of century in spite of a projected increase on average (?7 to +6%, +1% on average), under the warmest scenario RCP 8.5 decrease of energy production is consistently projected (?4% on average). Our results provide an array of potential scenarios of modified hydropower production under future climate change and may be used for brain storming of adaptation strategies.     

Contrasting styles of Mount Vesuvius activity in the period between the Avellino and Pompeii Plinian eruptions,and some implications for assessment of future hazards

Intense explosive activity occurred repeatedly at Vesuvius during the nearly 1,600-year period between the two Plinian eruptions of Avellino (3.5 ka) and Pompeii (79 A.D.). By correlating stratigraphic sections from more than 40 sites around the volcano, we identify the deposits of six main eruptions (AP1-AP6) and of some minor intervening events. Several deposits can be traced up to 20 km from the vent. Their stratigraphic and dispersal features suggest the prevalence of two main contrasting eruptive styles, each involving a complex relationship between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases. The two main eruption styles are (1) sub-Plinian to phreato-Plinian events (AP1 and AP2 members), where deposits consist of pumice and scoria fall layers alternating with fine-grained, vesiculated, accretionary lapilli-bearing ashes; and (2) mixed, violent Strombolian to Vulcanian events (AP3-AP6 members), which deposited a complex sequence of fallout, massive to thinly stratified, scoria-bearing lapilli layers and fine ash beds. Morphology and density variations of the juvenile fragments confirm the important role played by magma-water interaction in the eruptive dynamics. The mean composition of the ejected material changes with time, and shows a strong correlation with vent position and eruption style. The ranges of intensity and magnitude of these events, derived by estimations of peak column height and volume of the ejecta, are significantly smaller than the values for the better known Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions of Vesuvius, enlarging the spectrum of the possible eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius, useful in the assessment of its potential hazard.     

Rotating magnetopolytropes: spherical figures of equilibrium due to balance of magnetic field and rotation

In this paper we compute spherical figures of equilibrium resulting from the balance of toroidal magnetic field and rotation. These two distortion effects are assumed to act on rotating magneto-polytropic constant-mass sequences, that is, sequences with each of their members having mass constant and equal to that of the corresponding nondistorted model.     

Seasonal snow cover decreases young water fractions in high Alpine catchments

Estimation of young water fractions (F_yw), defined as the fraction of water in a stream younger than approximately 2–3 months, provides key information for water resource management in catchments where runoff is dominated by snowmelt. Knowing the average dependence of summer flow on winter precipitation is an essential context for comparing regional drought severity and provides the hydrological template for downstream water users and ecosystems. However, F_yw estimation based on seasonal signals of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen has not yet explicitly addressed how to parsimoniously include the seasonal shift of water input from snow. Using experimental data from three high-elevation, Alpine catchments (one dominated by glacier and two by snow), we propose a framework to explicitly include the delays induced by snow storage into estimates of F_yw. Scrutinizing the key methodological choices when estimating F_yw from isotope data, we find that the methods used to construct precipitation input signals from sparse isotope samples can significantly impact F_yw. Given this sensitivity, our revised procedure estimates a distribution of F_yw values that incorporates a wide range of possible methodological choices and their uncertainties; it furthermore compares the commonly used amplitude ratio approach to a direct convolution approach, which circumvents the assumption that the isotopic signals have a sine curve shape, an assumption that is generally violated in snow-dominated environments. Our new estimates confirm that high-elevation Alpine catchments have low F_yw values, spanning from 8 to 11%. Such low values have previously been interpreted as the impact of seasonal snow storage alone, but our comparison of different F_yw estimation methods suggests that these low F_yw values result from a combination of both snow cover effects and longer storage in the subsurface. In contrast, in the highest elevation, glacier dominated catchment, F_yw is 3–4 times greater compared to the other two catchments, due to the lower storage and faster drainage processes. A future challenge, capturing spatio-temporal snowmelt isotope signals during winter baseflow and the snowmelt period, remains to improve constraints on the F_yw estimation technique.     

Assessing seasonal variations and aquifer vulnerability in coastal aquifers of semi-arid regions using a multi-tracer isotopic approach: the case of Grombalia (Tunisia)

The Grombalia aquifer (NE Tunisia) is an example of an important source of water supply for regional and national development, where the weak controls over abstraction, fertilizer application and waste disposal, coupled with limited knowledge of aquifer dynamics, is causing aquifer over-exploitation and water quality degradation. Assessing the key role of groundwater in water-resources security is therefore of paramount importance to support new actions to preserve water quality and quantity in the long-run. This study presents one of the first investigations targeted at a complete assessment of aquifer dynamics in the Grombalia aquifer. A multi-tracer hydrogeochemical and isotopic (δ²H, δ¹⁸O and ³H) approach was used to study the influence of seasonal variation on piezometric levels, chemical and isotopic compositions, and groundwater recharge. A total of 116 samples were collected from private wells and boreholes during three periods in a 1 year monitoring campaign (February–March 2014, September 2014 and February 2015). Results revealed the overall unsuitability of groundwater for drinking and irrigation purposes (NO₃?>?50 mg/L in 51% of the wells; EC >1,000 μS/cm in 99% of the wells). Isotopic balance coupled to piezometric investigation indicated the contribution of the shallow aquifer to deep groundwater recharge. The study also revealed the weakness of ‘business as usual’ management practices, highlighting possible solutions to tackle water-related challenges in the Grombalia region, where climate change, population growth and intensive agricultural activities have generated a large gap between demand and available water reserves, hence becoming a possible driver for social insecurity.     

Optical satellite imagery for quantifying spatio-temporal dimension of physical exposure in disaster risk assessments

This work addresses the use of remote sensing imagery to quantify the built environment and its spatial and temporal changes. It identifies building footprint map, building location map and built-up area map as information products that can be used to quantify physical exposure, one of the variables required in disaster risk assessments. The paper also reviews urban land use maps and urban classes in land cover maps as potential source for deriving exposure information. The paper focuses on the latest generation of satellite-borne remote sensing imaging systems that deliver high-resolution optical imagery able to resolve buildings and other three-dimensional man-made constructions. This work also reviews the semantics, the spatial unit used to define physical exposure, image processing procedures and change techniques.