Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa.     

A chronological assessment of Lake Okeechobee (Florida) sediments using multiple dating markers

Reconstructing recent limnological history often relies on lead-210 dating to accurately ascribe a chronology to a sediment profile. In Lake Okeechobee, Florida, a large, shallow subtropical lake that may experience severe mixing, multiple dating methods are required to confirm that conformable sedimentation has been preserved and that the assumptions of the ²¹⁰Pb method are satisfied. This study uses stratigraphic profiles of heavy metals, ¹³⁷Cs, PCBs and pollen as independent dating markers to validate the sediment chronology as determined by ²¹⁰Pb for three cores from the central mud zone of the lake. Unsupported ²¹⁰Pb and most dating markers show distinct concentration/depth profiles, suggesting that the sediments have not been severely mixed for at least the last 75 years. Onset and maximum activity of the radioisotope ¹³⁷Cs in the cores coincides with the ²¹⁰Pb-dated interval of 1945–1970. This agrees well with the known timing of atmospheric deposition of ¹³⁷Cs that resulted from above-ground nuclear testing during late 1940s until 1963. Sediment core profiles of atmospherically deposited metals such as Zn and Pb, which reflect regional increases during industrialization and decreases after regulation in the 1970s, exhibit expected concentration increases and peaks coinciding within 5–15 years of the predicted ²¹⁰Pb dates. Uranium, a contaminant in some phosphate fertilizers, shows large concentration increases at core depths dated to be about 1950 by ²¹⁰Pb, matching the intensification of agriculture after WWII. PCBs, which are expected to peak in the early 1970s, were measured in one core, and the observed peak corresponds to a ²¹⁰Pb date of about 1960. Pollen makers were unable to verify specific events, but increases in disturbance taxa and declines in native types correspond generally with the expected dates assigned by ²¹⁰Pb dating. Conformity between the ²¹⁰Pb defined dates and independent markers of < ±15 years confirm that Lake Okeechobee sediments do preserve a sequential and reliable stratigraphic history of the lake, useful for reconstructing past limnological conditions.     

Clinoform architecture and along‐strike facies variability through an exhumed erosional to accretionary basin margin transition

Exhumed basin margin‐scale clinothems provide important archives for understanding process interactions and reconstructing the physiography of sedimentary basins. However, studies of coeval shelf through slope to basin‐floor deposits are rarely documented, mainly due to outcrop or subsurface dataset limitations. Unit G from the Laingsburg depocentre (Karoo Basin, South Africa) is a rare example of a complete basin margin scale clinothem (>60 km long, 200 m‐high), with >10 km of depositional strike control, which allows a quasi‐3D study of a preserved shelf‐slope‐basin floor transition over a ca. 1,200 km² area. Sand‐prone, wave‐influenced topset deposits close to the shelf‐edge rollover zone can be physically mapped down dip for ca. 10 km as they thicken and transition into heterolithic foreset/slope deposits. These deposits progressively fine and thin over tens of km farther down dip into sand‐starved bottomset/basin‐floor deposits. Only a few km along strike, the coeval foreset/slope deposits are bypass‐dominated with incisional features interpreted as minor slope conduits/gullies. The margin here is steeper, more channelized and records a stepped profile with evidence of sand‐filled intraslope topography, a preserved base‐of‐slope transition zone and sand‐rich bottomset/basin‐floor deposits. Unit G is interpreted as part of a composite depositional sequence that records a change in basin margin style from an underlying incised slope with large sand‐rich basin‐floor fans to an overlying accretion‐dominated shelf with limited sand supply to the slope and basin floor. The change in margin style is accompanied with decreased clinoform height/slope and increased shelf width. This is interpreted to reflect a transition in subsidence style from regional sag, driven by dynamic topography/inherited basement configuration, to early foreland basin flexural loading. Results of this study caution against reconstructing basin margin successions from partial datasets without accounting for temporal and spatial physiographic changes, with potential implications on predictive basin evolution models.     

Sediment routing in the Zagros foreland basin: Drainage reorganization and a shift from axial to transverse sediment dispersal in the Kurdistan region of Iraq

In the northwestern sector of the Zagros foreland basin, axial fluvial systems initially delivered fine-grained sediments from northwestern source regions into a contiguous basin, and later transverse fluvial systems delivered coarse-grained sediments from northeastern sources into a structurally partitioned basin by fold-thrust deformation. Here we integrate sedimentologic, stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data from the northwestern Zagros foreland basin to define the Neogene history of deposition and sediment routing in response to progressive advance of the Zagros fold-thrust belt. This study constrains the depositional environments, timing of deposition and provenance of nonmarine clastic deposits of the Injana (Upper Fars), Mukdadiya (Lower Bakhtiari) and Bai-Hasan (Upper Bakhtiari) Formations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Sediments of the Injana Formation (~12.4–7.75 Ma) were transported axially (orogen-parallel) from northwest to southeast by meandering and low-sinuosity channel belt system. In contrast, during deposition of the Mukdadiya Formation (~7.75–5 Ma), sediments were delivered transversely (orogen-perpendicular) from northeast to southwest by braided and low-sinuosity channel belt system in distributive fluvial megafans. By ~5 Ma, the northwestern Zagros foreland basin became partitioned by growth of the Mountain Front Flexure and considerable gravel was introduced in localized alluvial fans derived from growing topographic highs. Foredeep accumulation rates during deposition of the Injana, Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations averaged 350, 400 and 600 m/Myr respectively, suggesting accelerated accommodation generation in a rapidly subsiding basin governed by flexural subsidence. Detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra show that in addition to sources of Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover strata, the Injana Formation was derived chiefly from Palaeozoic-Precambrian (including Carboniferous and latest Neoproterozoic) strata in an axial position to the northwest, likely from the Bitlis-Puturge Massif and broader Eastern Anatolia. In contrast, the Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations yield distinctive Palaeogene U-Pb age peaks, particularly in the southeastern sector of the study region, consistent with transverse delivery from the arc-related terranes of the Walash and Naopurdan volcano-sedimentary groups (Gaveh-Rud domain?) and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc to the northeast. These temporal and spatial variations in stratigraphic framework, depositional environments, sediment routing and compositional provenance reveal a major drainage reorganization during Neogene shortening in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Whereas axial fluvial systems initially dominated the foreland basin during early orogenesis in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, transverse fluvial systems were subsequently established and delivered major sediment volumes to the foreland as a consequence of the abrupt deformation advance and associated topographic growth in the Zagros.     

The Qijurittuq site (IbGk-3), Eastern Hudson Bay: An IPY Interdisciplinary Study

Geografisk Tidsskrift—Danish Journal of Geography 110(2):227–243, 2010

An interdisciplinary study was conducted at Qijurittuq (IbGk-3), an archaeological site located on Drayton Island along the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, Nunavik. Local Inuit made important contributions to the research. High school students participated in the field school, and elders shared their traditional knowledge. The elders expressed an interest in the source of the wood used to construct Qijurittuq's semi-subterranean dwellings, and this inspired us to expand our research in that direction. This interdisciplinary study included a reconstruction of the geomorphological and environmental history of Drayton Island, wood provenance and dendrochronology studies, research on house architecture and settlement patterns, and a zooarchaeological analysis. This paper synthesizes the preliminary results of this interdisciplinary investigation within the context of climate change. We discuss the persistence of semi-subterranean dwellings in eastern Hudson Bay long after they had been abandoned elsewhere. At Qijurittuq, their abandonment corresponds with the end of Little Ice Age. However, at the same time, the development of more permanent contact with Euro-Canadians was having a strong impact upon Inuit culture.     

A whole-basin, mass-balance approach to paleolimnology

Lake sediments record the flux of materials (nutrients, pollutants, particulates) through a lake system both qualitatively, as changes in the composition of geochemical and biological tracers, as well as quantitatively, through changes in their rate of burial. Burial rates provide a direct link to contemporary (neo-) limnological studies as well as management efforts aimed at load reductions, but are difficult to reconstruct accurately from single cores owing to the spatial and temporal variability of sediment deposition in most lakes. The accurate determination of whole-lake burial rates from analysis of multiple cores, though requiring more effort per lake, can help resolve such problems and improve our understanding of sediment heterogeneity at multiple scales. Partial solutions to these problems also include focusing corrections based on ²¹⁰Pb flux, co-evaluation of concentration profiles, trend analysis using multiple lakes, and trend replication based on a small number of cores from the same lake. Recent multi-core studies demonstrate that no single core site faithfully records the whole-lake time-resolved input of materials, but that as few as five well-placed cores can provide a reliable record of whole-lake sediment flux for morphometrically simple basins. Lake-wide sediment fluxes can be coupled with reconstructed outflow losses to calculate historical changes in watershed and atmospheric loading of nutrients, metals, and other constituents. The ability of paleolimnology to accurately assess the sedimentary flux and extend the period of reference into the distant past represents an important contribution to the understanding of biogeochemical processes and their response to human and natural disturbance.     

Estimation of precipitation fields from 1-minute rain gauge time series – comparison of spatial and spatio-temporal interpolation methods

Accurate estimations of spatio-temporal fields at unsampled locations are important in a number of applications. Often, spatio-temporal fields are advected, which means the change in field values over time at a particular point in space stems to a large extent from motion of a more or less constant spatial field. For such dynamic fields, interpolation methods including information on the motion behaviour of the field are promising extensions of solely spatial (snapshot) and symmetric spatio-temporal methods. In this paper, the performance of different deterministic and geostatistical interpolation methods is compared for precipitation estimation from 1-minute time series of spatially distributed rain gauges. The focus is on spatio-temporal methods that include information on the motion behaviour of the rainfield, estimated from weather radar using optical flow. The different interpolation methods are introduced and evaluated using rain gauge measurements of a 15-day period and cross-validation. The results show that including information on the motion behaviour significantly improves interpolation quality in terms of RMSE.     

The DAV and Periadriatic fault systems in the Eastern Alps south of the Tauern window

Alpine deformation of Austroalpine units south of the Tauern window is dominated by two kinematic regimes. Prior to intrusion of the main Periadriatic plutons at ~30 Ma, the shear sense was sinistral in the current orientation, with a minor north-side-up component. Sinistral shearing locally overprints contact metamorphic porphyroblasts and early Periadriatic dykes. Direct Rb-Sr dating of microsampled synkinematic muscovite gave ages in the range 33-30 Ma, whereas pseudotachylyte locally crosscutting the mylonitic foliation gave an interpreted ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar age of ~46 Ma. The transition from sinistral to dextral (transpressive) kinematics related to the Periadriatic fault occurred rapidly, between solidification of the earlier dykes and of the main plutons. Subsequent brittle-ductile to brittle faults are compatible with N-S to NNW-SSE shortening and orogen-parallel extension. Antithetic Riedel shears are distinguished from the previous sinistral fabric by their fine-grained quartz microstructures, with local pseudotachylyte formation. One such pseudotachylyte from Speikboden gave a ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar age of 20 Ma, consistent with pseudotachylyte ages related to the Periadriatic fault. The magnitude of dextral offset on the Periadriatic fault cannot be directly estimated. However, the jump in zircon and apatite fission-track ages establishes that the relative vertical displacement was ~4-5 km since 24 Ma, and that movement continued until at least 13 Ma.