Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.     

Mechanical Behavior of Light-Weight Soil Under Consolidated Drained Shear Condition

To reveal the influence of material composition on mechanical properties of light-weight soil, stress-strain -volumetric strain characteristics and Poisson's ratio of mixed soil were researched by consolidated drained shear tests. The results show that light-weight soil is a kind of structural soil, so its mechanical properties are affected by mixed ratio and confining pressure, and mixed soil possesses structural yield stress. When confining pressure is less than the structural yield stress, strain softening occurs; when confining pressure is more than the structural yield stress, strain hardening is observed. There are two kinds of volume change behavior: shear contraction and shear dilatancy. Shear dilatancy usually leads to strain softening, but there isn't an assured causal relationship between them. Poisson's ratio of mixed soil is a variational state parameter with the change of stress state, it decreases with increased confining pressure, and it increases with increased stress level. When axial strain is near 5%, Poisson’ ratio is gradually close to a steady value. The main range of Poisson's ratio is 0.25～0.50 when confining pressure changes from 50 to 300 kPa. When unconfined compressive strength of mixed soil is less than 328 kPa, its stress-strain-volumetric strain characteristics can be predicted very well by Duncan-Chang model (E-B model). However, when the range of unconfined compressive strength is [328 kPa, 566 kPa], the model can't predict stress-strain characteristics accurately when confining pressure is under 200 kPa, and it also can't predict the strong shear dilatancy phenomenon of mixed soil under low confining pressure.     

LLSVPs与全球热点空间叠置性再分析

地震层析成像显示在非洲和太平洋之下的核幔边界处(～2800 km)存在两个大型低剪切波速省(LLSVPs),分别被命名为Tuzo和Jason,指示温度或成分的异常。前人通过研究发现,大火成岩省喷发的古位置以及现今活动热点位置多位于LLSVPs边界±10°附近。由此,基于空间相关性,将LLSVPs狭窄的边界视为地幔热柱生成区,广泛用于解释地幔柱与热点的成因。但是,将一个深度2800 km的地球物理异常与地表热点建立联系,仍存在诸多不确定性。而且LLSVPs作为全球尺度的异常区,在地表的映射范围巨大,不可避免地与大量热点存在天然的空间叠置性,这种空间关联的程度以及是否具有成因联系仍然未知。本文考虑随机状态下热点落入LLSVPs范围的概率,对全球热点与LLSVPs边界重新进行空间分析,判断两者之间的空间叠置性。统计结果显示,全球热点与LLSVPs边界的空间相关性不及预期,Tuzo和Jason之间存在较大差异,Jason与热点缺乏空间位置相关性,而Tuzo与热点空间相关性较强。热点的分布与成因可能并不完全受控于LLSVPs。研究结果对普遍认为的LLSVPs与热点分布之间的强相关性提出质疑,在具...     

华南地区含硫化物金属矿山生态环境中的重金属元素地球化学迁移模型——重点对粤北大宝山铁铜多金属矿山的观察

粤北大宝山是华南金属成矿带的大型铁铜、铅、锌、钼等多金属综合性矿床,富含硫化物,位于北江支流横石河的上游分水岭,流域封闭性很好。矿山开发引起横石河下游的上坝村成为远近闻名的"癌症"村,部分村民出现"痛痛病"疑似症状。由于其特殊的地理位置和对下游引发的严重污染,该矿山成为研究湿热地区含硫化物金属矿山重金属元素生态-环境地球化学迁移的理想场所。以Zn为例,该矿山重金属元素从矿体中向生物体迁移过程经过尾砂/水反应界面、水/沉积物反应界面、土壤/间隙水溶液界面和土壤/植物界面4个重要的反应界面。其中,尾砂/水反应界面控制重金属从源头尾砂中的释放;水/沉积物反应界面控制重金属在水体中与河流沉积物的沉淀与释放的平衡;土壤/间隙水溶液界面控制土壤生物有效性;土壤/植物界面控制生物对重金属的吸收与利用。4个界面的介质间相互作用较好地刻画大宝山矿山因为开采,重金属元素从内生环境中曝露出来,然后在表生环境中释放、迁移、转化、归宿的迁移模式。上述认识对矿山重金属污染治理具有重要的指导意义。通过改变重金属迁移反应界面的条件,可以阻断矿山元素的迁移,达到污染治理的目的。     

8805号登陆台风特大暴雨的数值模拟

应用中尺度模式ＭＭ４,使用了一种简单的模式台风处理方法,成功地模拟了８８０５号台风登陆前后的演变及其伴随的特五暴雨过程,即对分析的台风中心物理量场进行修正而形成与实况极为一致的初值,以期能更好地模拟台风过程。从模拟结果可以看出,台风降水强度中心基本上是随台风登陆移动而变化的,每一时期的降水中心基本上与台风移动的路径一致或略偏前方,在登陆时的降水最大,这种降水变化与台风上升运动的烛一致的,上升运动越     

广州市室内地温的变化规律分析

对2012年2月—2014年2月间广州室内地温进行了分析,同时还分析了其与室外气温的相互关系,结果表明：室内日平均地温随月份的变化呈正弦曲线变化,并且其变化与室外平均气温的变化有很高的相关性,但室内地温的升降幅小于室外气温的升降幅,春夏季室外气温高于室内地温,而秋冬季节相反;室内地温的日较差通常很小,一般小于1℃;当室内地温日较差在1～2℃时,多是室外处于持续的升温或持续降温状态;当室内地温日较差大于2℃时,多是因受冷空气影响。有冷（暖）空气影响时,室内地温下降（上升）较室外气温有一定程度的滞后,室内地温下降（上升）幅度较小但保持一致下降（上升）趋势,二者日平均温度变化趋势较为一致。     

中国钴资源及其开发利用概况

文章概述了中国钴矿床的类型、时空分布、最新研究进展及开发利用现状，指出世界上共(伴)生主要钴矿床类型在中国均已发现，可归纳为4大类，其中以岩浆型Ni—Cu—Co硫化物矿床、热液及火山成因钴多金属矿床最为重要；中国钴矿的形成可分为6个重要成矿期，划分出7个重要成矿带；尽管钴多以伴生组分产在镍、铜、铁等矿床中，但近年来中国先后发现了一些不同元素组合、不同成因类型的独立钴矿床。鉴于中国当前钴资源比较紧缺和钴消费快速增长，建议既要充分利用好国内外资源，又要加大钴资源勘查及开发利用力度，以满足国民经济发展的需要。     

A Study on the Dissolution Kinetics of Basalt—Water Interaction under Different pH Conditions I：Release of Elements and pH Neutralization Effect

Experimental research on the chemical weathering of alkaline-olivine basalt from Huangyi Mountain,Kuandain County,Liaoning.Province and olivine basalt from Dayangke,Mingxi County,Fujian Province has shown that the acidity of the solution tends to become neutral regardless of what the acidity of the starting solution would be during basalt0-water interaction.We call this phenome-non“pH neutralized Effect”.The dissolved species in the solution were determined and unreacted and reacted sample-surface chemical components involved or uninvolved in reaction were analyzed using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS).The results revealed two different mechanisms of dissolution of basalt in acidic and basic solutions.     

1961—2017年华北地区高温日数及高温热浪时空变化特征

利用华北地区85个气象站1961—2017年逐日最高气温资料,统计分析了华北地区高温日数及高温热浪(频次、持续时间、强度)的时空变化特征。结果表明:①华北地区年高温日数整体呈增加趋势,自20世纪90年代中期之后年均高温日数明显增多;高温多出现在华北地区的南部和西部,华北地区大部分站点的高温日数呈增加趋势。②就气候平均态而言,高温初日有略提前趋势,高温终日则明显推迟;空间上,绝大多数台站的高温终日呈推迟的趋势,其中京津冀中北部地区尤为明显。③累计高温热浪次数、轻度和中度热浪次数均整体增加,并在1990年左右明显由少变多,重度热浪次数增加趋势更为显著;1987年之后,平均每次高温热浪事件的高温有效积温明显增加,表明高温热浪的平均强度增大。④不同等级高温热浪总频次的空间分布特征相近,高频次区域均集中在内蒙古西部、山西西南部和河北南部;热浪累计频次的变化趋势在内蒙和山西以增多为主,在京津冀地区以减少为主。除山西南部和河北南部的个别站点以外,绝大多数站点的热浪平均持续天数和平均高温有效积温的变化呈增多增强趋势。总体来看,华北大部分区域自20世纪90年代以来,高温日数及热浪事件明显增强,同时存在明...