Review and new interpretation for the propagation characteristics associated with the 1999 Chi‐Chi earthquake faulting event

The Chi‐Chi earthquake (M_W = 7.6) took place in central western Taiwan in 1999. The earthquake caused reactivation of the Chelungpu Fault and resulted in 100‐km‐long surface ruptures. The fault strikes mostly north–south to NNE–SSW; however, the northern tip of the southern segment of the surface ruptures rotates clockwise to define an east–west trend, then jumps to a shorter NNW‐trending rupture. The largest vertical displacement is recorded in the Shihkang area of the Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone, where vertical slips are up to 8–10 m. The Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone displays a complex fault pattern as a linkage damage zone between two fault segments with the greatest concentration of faults and fractures. Our new interpretation, based on recent published geometric, kinematic, and geophysical studies on the Chi‐Chi earthquake fault, suggests that the Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone is not a simple termination zone, but may be an ‘overstep zone’ or a ‘transfer zone’. Slip analysis along the surface ruptures indicates that they are composed of three fault segments and the amount of slip partly depends on the intersection angle between slip direction and fault strike. Our numerical modeling for the area indicates that Coulomb stress changes are mainly concentrated on tips and bends of the surface ruptures. Slip patterns indicate that the fault propagates toward the northeast. Therefore, this study suggests high potential for future earthquake activity along the unruptured Shangchi segment. Hence, future geohazard studies should focus on the Shangchi segment to evaluate potential earthquakes, determine recurrence intervals, and reduce future earthquake hazards.     

Simulation of snowstorm over the Yellow Sea using a mesoscale coupled model

This study aims to examine the favorable conditions for an ocean effect snowstorm across the Yellow Sea over the southwestern coast of Korea on 21 December 2005, using a coupled model with a Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System as the atmospheric component and the Regional Ocean Modeling System as the oceanic component. Simulation of heavy snowfall event, which was 44.3 cm of snow accumulated in 24-hour, was performed to investigate the mesoscale structure, dynamics and development mechanisms in the snowstorm. As a result from 48-hour integration, the results of simulation showed that barotropic instability and turbulent heat fluxes played important roles in the formation of snowstorm. The enhanced surface diabatic heating was dominant in the latent heat flux, and eventually induced convective instability. An additional factor was the favorable condition of synoptic environment, accessing the cold air transport by the approach of the upper-level cold vortex over the warm ocean. Besides these factors, conditional symmetric instability (CSI) is a mechanism which can result in a heavy snowfall with sufficient moisture and upward vertical motion. A slantwise convection from the release of CSI could support a complex snowfall event with heavier than expected amounts. The result comparison between a coupled model and an uncoupled model supports that airsea coupling has an impact of decreasing of about 10% in a snowfall amount on the snowstorm.     

Hydrological modelling uncertainty analysis for different flow quantiles: a case study in two hydro-geographically different watersheds

This study focuses on analysis of hydrological model parameter uncertainty at varying sub-basin spatial scales. It was found that the variation in sub-basin spatial scale had little influence on the entire flow simulations. However, the different sub-basin spatial scales had a significant impact on the reproduction of the flow quantiles. The coarser sub-basin spatial scale provided a better coverage of most prediction uncertainty in observations. However, the finer sub-basin spatial scale produced the best single simulation output closer to the observations. In general, the optimal sub-basin spatial scales (ratio to the entire watershed size) in the two test watersheds were found to be in the ranges 14–19% and 2–4% for good simulation of high and low flows, respectively. It is therefore worthwhile to put more effort into reproducing different flow quantiles by investigating an appropriate sub-basin spatial scale.     

Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO₂ emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO₂ emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO₂ in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.     

Effects of Meteorological Factors on Toxic Red Tide Events in Sabah, Malaysia

Abstract. Red tides of the toxic dinoflagellate Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum have occurred almost annually since 1976 in the coastal waters of the west coast of Sabah, Malaysia. Field obSérvations have indicated that the timings of these outbreaks could be linked to meteorological forcings. All the red tides have occurred during either the northeast or southwest monsoon periods. Matching of red tide outbreaks with total monthly rainfall, monthly-averaged index of wind-induced surface water mixing, and monthly-averaged upwelling index for the period from 1975 to 1989 failed to show any definite pattern. However, more red tide events occurred in months with high mixing index values. The absence of definable patterns could be due to the use of monthly, rather than daily, values in the calculations.     

Basin-To-Basin and Year-To-Year Variation of Temperature and Salinity Characteristics in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Analysis of CTD data from four CREAMS expeditions carried out in summers of 1993–1996 produces distinct T-S relationships for the western and eastern Japan Basin, the Ulleung Basin and the Yamato Basin. T-S characteristics are mainly determined by salinity as it changes its horizontal pattern in three layers, which are divided by isotherms of 5°C and 1°C; upper warm water, intermediate water and deep cold water. Upper warm water is most saline in the Ulleung Basin and the Yamato Basin. Salinity of intermediate water is the highest in the eastern Japan Basin. Deep cold water has the highest salinity in the Japan Basin. T-S curves in the western Japan Basin are characterized by a salinity jump around 1.2–1.4°C in the T-S plane, which was previously found off the east coast of Korea associated with the East Sea Intermediate Water (Cho and Kim, 1994). T-S curves for the Japan Basin undergo a large year-to-year variation for water warmer than 0.6°C, which occupies upper 400 m. It is postulated that the year-to-year variation in the Japan Basin is caused by convective overturning in winter. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Variation in summer surface air temperature over Northeast Asia and its associated circulation anomalies

This study investigates the interannual variation of summer surface air temperature over Northeast Asia(NEA) and its associated circulation anomalies.Two leading modes for the temperature variability over NEA are obtained by EOF analysis.The first EOF mode is characterized by a homogeneous temperature anomaly over NEA and therefore is called the NEA mode.This anomaly extends from southeast of Lake Baikal to Japan,with a central area in Northeast China.The second EOF mode is characterized by a seesaw pattern,showing a contrasting distribution between East Asia(specifically including the Changbai Mountains in Northeast China,Korea,and Japan) and north of this region.This mode is named the East Asia(EA) mode.Both modes contribute equivalently to the temperature variability in EA.The two leading modes are associated with different circulation anomalies.A warm NEA mode is associated with a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEA and thus a weakened upper-tropospheric westerly jet.On the other hand,a warm EA mode is related to a positive height anomaly over EA and a northward displaced jet.In addition,the NEA mode tends to be related to the Eurasian teleconnection pattern,while the EA mode is associated with the East Asia-Pacific/PacificJapan pattern.     

Seasonal evolution mechanism of the East Asian winter monsoon and its interannual variability

This study investigates the space–time evolution of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and its relationship with other climate subsystems. Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis and the multiple regression method are used to delineate the detailed evolution of various atmospheric and surface variables in connection with the EAWM. The 120 days of winter (November 17–March 16) per year over 62 years (1948–2010) are analyzed using the NCEP daily reanalysis dataset. The first CSEOF mode of 850-hPa temperatures depicts the seasonal evolution of the EAWM. The contrast in heat capacity between the continent and the northwestern Pacific results in a differential heating in the lower troposphere. Its temporal evolution drives the strengthening and weakening of the Siberian High and the Aleutian Low. The anomalous sea level pressure pattern dictates anomalous circulation, in compliance with the geostrophic relationship. Thermal advection, in addition to net surface radiation, partly contributes to temperature variations in winter. Latent and sensible heat fluxes (thermal forcing from the ocean to the atmosphere) increase with decreased thermal advection. Anomalous upper-level circulation is closely linked to the low-level temperature anomaly in terms of the thermal wind equation. The interannual variability of the seasonal cycle of the EAWM is strongly controlled by the relative strength of the Siberian High to the Aleutian Low. A stronger than normal gradient between the two pressure systems amplifies the seasonal cycle of the EAWM. The EAWM seasonal cycle in the mid-latitude region exhibits a weak negative correlation with the Arctic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russia indices.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis and its verification using likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models: case study of Youngin, Korea

The likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural networks models are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility in Youngin, Korea, using the geographic information system. From a spatial database containing such data as landslide location, topography, soil, forest, geology, and land use, the 14 landslide-related factors were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models. Before the calculation, the study area was divided into two sides (west and east) of equal area, for verification of the models. Thus, the west side was used to assess the landslide susceptibility, and the east side was used to verify the derived susceptibility. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates. The verification results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations.     

Characteristics of evapotranspiration from a permafrost black spruce forest in interior Alaska

Here, the year 2011 characteristics of evapotranspiration and the energy budget of a black spruce forest underlain by permafrost in interior Alaska were explored. Energy balance was nearly closed during summer, and the mean value of the daily energy balance ratio (the ratio of turbulent energy fluxes to available energy) from June to August was 1.00, though a large energy balance deficit was observed in the spring. Such a deficit was explained partly by the energy consumed by snowmelt. Ground heat flux played an important role in the energy balance, explaining 26.5% of net radiation during summer. The mean daily evapotranspiration of this forest during summer was 1.37 mm day^?1 – considered typical for boreal forests. The annual evapotranspiration and sublimation yielded 207.3 mm year^?1, a value much smaller than the annual precipitation. Sublimation accounted for 8.8% (18.2 mm year^?1) of the annual evapotranspiration and sublimation; thus, the sublimation is not negligible in the annual water balance in boreal forests. The daytime average decoupling coefficient was very small, and the mean value was 0.05 during summer. Thus, evapotranspiration from this forest was mostly explained by the component from the dryness of the air, resulting from the aerodynamically rough surface of this forest.