美国气候新政背景下的中国未来CO2排放情景预测

本文应用LMDI分解分析方法对中国2000—2014年生产部门CO₂排放量变化做因素分解分析,同时结合STIRPAT模型建立CO₂预测模型,分析2017—2030年中国的CO₂排放情况。结果表明,经济增长和能耗强度变化对中国CO₂排放量变化的影响分别为114.9%、-22.6%。基于预测模型变量构建未来情景,设定正常路线、减排路线和激进路线3条路线,共包含9种情景。正常路线的低碳情景和减排路线的基准情景下可实现2025年达到CO₂排放峰值,减排路线的低碳情景可实现2020年达到排放峰值。     

孤岛分布式能源系统的反步控制策略研究

针对含分布式能源（DER）的微电网在孤岛运行模式下自身调节能力有限的问题,基于反步控制方法设计了一种DER系统孤岛运行电压控制策略,解决了DER系统在孤岛运行模式下的电压控制问题.首先,给出了孤岛运行模式下DER系统模型及输出电压数学模型;其次,利用反步控制方法设计了控制器,同时利用李雅普诺夫稳定性理论进行了稳定性分析;最后,利用此控制器在平衡负载及不平衡负载的情况下对输出电压进行控制,并通过仿真验证了反步控制器的有效性.     

北京地区东京樱花花期对气候变化的分段响应

基于1965—2014年北京颐和园观测的东京樱花(Cerasus yedoensis)始花期数据和同期日均气温资料,运用相关、回归分析法和M-K突变检验法分析了北京地区东京樱花始花期对气候变化的分段响应情况。结果表明:1965—2014年间,北京地区东京樱花始花期总体呈现显著提前趋势,且于1990年发生了突变。1990—2014年的平均始花期较1965—1989年提前了10 d。始花期与2—4月气温最为相关,气温的敏感度总体为-4. 1 d/℃。对比1990年前后两个时段东京樱花始花期的气温敏感度,发现1990年后始花期的气温敏感度有所增加,从-2. 9 d/℃增至-4. 6 d/℃。根据时空物候模型分析,后一时段樱花开花当日温度相对较低,积温累积的时间也相对较长,这是导致樱花始花期气温敏感度在后一时段较高的直接原因。     

Responses of aboveground biomass of alpine grasslands to climate changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Aboveground biomass in grasslands of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has displayed an overall increasing trend during 2003-2016, which is profoundly influenced by climate change. However, the responses of different biomes show large discrepancies, in both size and magnitude. By applying partial least squares regression, we calculated the correlation between peak aboveground biomass and mean monthly temperature and monthly total precipitation in the preceding 12 months for three different grassland types (alpine steppe, alpine meadow, and temperate steppe) on the central and eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results showed that mean temperature in most preceding months was positively correlated with peak aboveground biomass of alpine meadow and alpine steppe, while mean temperature in the preceding October and February to June was significantly negatively correlated with peak aboveground biomass of temperate steppe. Precipitation in all months had a promoting effect on biomass of alpine meadow, but its correlations with biomass of alpine steppe and temperate steppe were inconsistent. It is worth noting that, in a warmer, wetter climate, peak aboveground biomass of alpine meadow would increase more than that of alpine steppe, while that of temperate steppe would decrease significantly, providing support for the hypothesis of conservative growth strategies by vegetation in stressed ecosystems.     

Regional Differentiation and Classification for Carrying Constraints on the Resources and Environment of China

Research on the relationship between national resource constraint-region types and environmental carrying capacity is essential for the continued development of Chinese industrialization and urbanization. Thus, utilizing a series of key indexes including the per-capita potential of available land resources, the per-capita potential of available water resources, the degree of environmental stress, and the degree of ecological restriction, a step-by-step, integrated measuring method is presented here to understand the constrained carrying elements of water and land resources as well as environment and ecology. Spatial differences are analyzed and area types classified at the county level across China. Results reveal that: (1) Almost 90% of China is strongly constrained by both resources and the environment, while nearly 50% of national territory is strongly constrained by two elements, especially in areas of intensive population and industry to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line; (2) Densely populated areas of eastern and central China, as well as on the Tibetan Plateau, are strongly constrained by a shortage of land resources, while North China, the northwest, northeast, the Sichuan basin, and some southern cities are experiencing strong constraints because of water shortages. In contrast, the North China plain, the Yangtze River delta, northern Jiangsu, Sichuan province, Chongqing municipality, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces, the northeast plain, and the northern Loess Plateau are constrained by high levels of environmental stress. Areas of China that are strongly ecologically constrained tend to be concentrated to the southwest of the Tianshan-Dabie Mountain line, as well as in the northeast on the Loess Plateau, in the Alashan of Inner Mongolia, in northeast China, and in the northern Jiangsu coastal area; (3) Constraints on national resources and environmental carrying capacity are diverse and cross-cut China, meanwhile, multi-element spatial distribution does reveal a degree of relative centralization. With the exception of the Tibetan Plateau which is resources-ecological constraint , other areas subject to cross constraints are mainly concentrated to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line.     

Earth Summit Mission 2022: Scientific Expedition and Research on Mt. Qomolangma Helps Reveal the Synergy between Westerly Winds and Monsoon and the Resulting Climatic and Environmental Effects

“Earth summit mission 2022” is one of the landmark scientific research activities of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP). This scientific expedition firstly used advanced technology and methods to detect vertical meteorological elements and produce forecasts for mountain climbing. The “Earth summit mission 2022”Qomolangma scientific expedition exceeded an altitude of over 8000 meters for the first time and carried out a comprehensive scientific investigation missi...     

考虑围岩破坏条件时优化小净距隧道最小净距的研究

小净距隧道由于不受地形条件以及总体线路线型的限制,较连拱隧道有施工工艺简单、造价较低等优点,越来越受到青睐。用有限单元法对小净距隧道不同中柱厚度进行数值模拟,通过格里菲斯破坏判据以及德鲁克-普拉格判据,拟合出最大拉应力及各判据屈服函数与净距的拟合曲线,在保证其稳定的基础上,对小净距隧道最合理净距做出分析。     

砂岩全应力-应变曲线二分段特征的Lyapunov定性分析

提出砂岩全应力.应变曲线的二分法原则,应用混沌动力学Lyapunov评价准则定性研究得到了曲线新的分段特征:试验曲线的所有峰前段均处于混沌状态,证明岩石节理裂隙这一复杂系统的非线性状态演化是客观存在、线性是近似的;节理裂隙系统有85%演化到峰后段时呈有序定常态,表明节理裂隙贯通后的岩石已呈现宏观破坏,线性特征明显:围压作用将延长节理裂隙的贯通过程,使之在峰后呈抵抗性破坏特征;峰后应变长度占总应变长度的2/3及以上时,该阶段节理裂隙系统的状态将主导其演化全过程的状态特征.     

泾阳南塬黄土滑坡特征参数统计分析

1976年泾阳南塬大面积提水灌溉以来,沿泾河右岸诱发了27处、50余起黄土层内滑坡,使得台塬面积不断缩小、水土流失加剧。本文在对南塬黄土滑坡特征参数测量的基础上,对其进行了统计分析,主要包括滑坡后壁陡坎高度、整体坡度、地裂缝发育情况以及滑距坡度等。分析表明:①滑坡后壁陡坎高度与马兰黄土厚度一致,受黄土垂直节理控制;后壁总体坡度较大,是黄土滑坡演化的重要因素;②裂缝发育规模总体偏小,但活动特征明显;③滑距坡度可作为研究区远程、短程滑坡划分的一种依据。同时,对滑距坡度在黄土滑坡滑距预测及危险性区划中的应用前景进行了探讨。     

Calculation of the CO2 Degassing during Contact Metamorphism and Its Geological Significance: The Model and Example from the Shuanshan Area of the South Tan–Lu Fault Belt

The paper studies CO2 degassing and controlling factors under the condition of contact metamorphism in the Shuangshan area, southern Tan-Lu fault belt and the method of calculating the amount of CO2 degassing. The results show that the amount of CO2 degassing is controlled by the characteristics of the country rocks, including the thermal conductivity, penetrability, porosity and connectivity. Compositions, size and depth of intrusive rock also have an important influence on CO2 degassing, i.e., they generated numerous cracks in the country rocks, and thus allowed the easy flow and accumulation of fluids. The amount of CO2 flux in contact metamorphism is calculated quantitatively based on the metamorphic reaction and time-integrated fluid flux. The value （0.729- 2.446×10^4 mol/cm^2） of CO2 flux suggests that CO2 was provided mainly by the contact metamorphic reaction. The generation and releasing of CO2 are positively correlated with the degree of metamorphism, and XCO2 in fluids gradually increases from dolomite zone to calcite zone, but in the zone of grossular, fluid flux is the largest and XCO2 sharply decreases due to involvement of magmatic water. This study presents evidence that a large amount of industrial-scale CO2 can be produced during contact metamorphism. On the basis of theoretical and practical studies, a cone model has been proposed to response CO2 degassing for the contact metamorphism, and it can be used to explore CO2 accumulations beyond the oil-gas basins. This model can also be applied to the study of inorganic genesis of CO2 accumulations.