How can spirals persist?

The image of a spiral galaxy is one of the most tantalizing images in nature. It demands that we ask: why do so many galaxies present this morphology? We currently have two main schools of thought concerning galaxy morphology, one based on gravitational effects and the other based on electromagnetic effects. The older gravitational models can explain how spirals might form, but they also predict that the spirals would quickly disintegrate. And the observed pervasiveness of spirals seems to imply not only their formation, but also their persistence over time. The newer plasma cosmology model is an improvement in that it explains how spirals might form and persist so long as plasma persists. But the formation of charge-neutral stars seems to return the scenario to the gravitational domain, and to subsequent dissolution. Clearly we need an additional idea to account for pervasive and persistent spiral galaxy structure. The present paper attempts to uncover a previously unrecognized gravitational mechanism that can serve as a viable candidate for sustaining persistent spiral galaxy structure.     

Chemical evidence for advection of hydrothermal solutions in the sediments of the Galapagos Mounds Hydrothermal Field

Pore water profiles of Ca, Mg, F, PO₄^?3 and Mn in the Galapagos Mounds Hydrothermal Field are believed to reflect, in part, upwelling of hydrothermal solutions through the sediments. Concentration-depth profiles in a low heat flow area just north of the Mounds Field display diagenetic changes typical of those found in pore waters underlying highly productive surface waters, consistent with the inference of no water flow or very slow downwelling ($\text{w < 5}\text{cm/yr}$) of bottom water through these sediments. Rates of upward advection calculated from Mounds Field pore water profiles of Ca, Mg, and F profiles agree well with each other, averaging about 1 cm/yr in the pelagic sediments near the mounds and 15–30 cm/yr within the hydrothermal mounds themselves. The upward advection also modifies the shape of PO₄^?3 and Mn profiles.Advection rates inferred from the pore water data are generally in reasonable agreement with those made from heat flow data.The higher Ca and lower Mg, F, PO₄^?3 and Mn concentrations in Mounds Field pore waters (compared with those of the low heat flow area) suggest chemical exchange between the solution and basalt prior to upwelling. Li⁺, K⁺, Rb⁺, Sr⁺⁺ and SO₄^? concentrations are indistinguishable from bottom water. This suggests very high effective water/rock ratios during the reactions which produced the upwelling solutions, perhaps due to extensive prior alteration of basalt adjacent to the flow path of water through the crust Inferred reaction temperatures are between 70–150°C.     

Tephra-fall deposits from the 1992 eruption of Crater Peak, Alaska: implications of clast textures for eruptive processes

 The 1992 eruption of Crater Peak, Mount Spurr, Alaska, involved three subplinian tephra-producing events of similar volume and duration. The tephra consists of two dense juvenile clast types that are identified by color, one tan and one gray, of similar chemistry, mineral assemblage, and glass composition. In two of the eruptive events, the clast types are strongly stratified with tan clasts dominating the basal two thirds of the deposits and gray clasts the upper one third. Tan clasts have average densities between 1.5 and 1.7 g/cc and vesicularities (phenocryst free) of approximately 42%. Gray clasts have average densities between 2.1 and 2.3 g/cc, and vesicularities of approximately 20%; both contain abundant microlites. Average maximum plagioclase microlite lengths (13–15 μm) in gray clasts in the upper layer are similar regardless of eruptive event (and therefore the repose time between them) and are larger than average maximum plagioclase microlite lengths (9–11 μm) in the tan clasts in the lower layer. This suggests that microlite growth is a response to eruptive processes and not to magma reservoir heterogeneity or dynamics. Furthermore, we suggest that the low vesicularities of the clasts are due to syneruptive magmatic degassing resulting in microlitic growth prior to fragmentation and not to quenching of clasts by external groundwater. Received: 5 September 1997 / Accepted: 1 February 1998     

Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies

This integrated study examines the implications of changes in crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation, taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explores the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to study water availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production, population, technology, and GDP growth.For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil, future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios, but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer.Adaptation tests imply that only the Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change, while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to the projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management.     

The International Geographical Union Reports

IGU Reports

The International Geographical Union Reports     

1980年圣海伦斯火山爆发对之后30年火山学研究的启示

1980年5月18日,圣海伦斯火山发生了一次大规模喷发,这一事件令科学家和大众惊叹不已。巨大的山体滑坡、气浪以及随之而来的柱状喷发（高达25km,持续时间长达9hr）等影像记录震惊全世界,同时也激起了人们对此次火山喷发事件研究的兴趣（图1）。     

Lagrangian particle tracking of a toxic dinoflagellate bloom within the Tampa Bay estuary

A coastal risk assessment system simulates the basic physical mechanisms underlying contaminant transport in Tampa Bay. This risk assessment system, comprised of a three-dimensional numerical circulation model coupled to a Lagrangian particle tracking model, simulates the transport and dispersion of a toxic dinoflagellate bloom. Instantaneous velocity output from the circulation model drives the movement of particles, each representing a fraction of a K. brevis bloom, within the model grid cells. Hindcast simulations of the spatial distribution of the K. brevis bloom are presented and compared with water sample concentrations collected during the peak of the bloom. Probability calculations, herein called transport quotients, allow for rapid analysis of bay-wide K. brevis transport showing locations most likely to be impacted by the contaminant. Maps constructed from the transport quotients provide managers with a bay-wide snapshot of areas in Tampa Bay most at risk during a hazardous bloom event.     

Comparative soil CO2 flux measurements and geostatistical estimation methods on Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

We present a comparative study of soil CO₂ flux () measured by five groups (Groups 1–5) at the IAVCEI-CCVG Eighth Workshop on Volcanic Gases on Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. Groups 1–5 measured using the accumulation chamber method at 5-m spacing within a 900 m² grid during a morning (AM) period. These measurements were repeated by Groups 1–3 during an afternoon (PM) period. Measured ranged from 218 to 14,719 g m⁻² day⁻¹. The variability of the five measurements made at each grid point ranged from ±5 to 167%. However, the arithmetic means of fluxes measured over the entire grid and associated total CO₂ emission rate estimates varied between groups by only ±22%. All three groups that made PM measurements reported an 8–19% increase in total emissions over the AM results. Based on a comparison of measurements made during AM and PM times, we argue that this change is due in large part to natural temporal variability of gas flow, rather than to measurement error. In order to estimate the mean and associated CO₂ emission rate of one data set and to map the spatial distribution, we compared six geostatistical methods: arithmetic and minimum variance unbiased estimator means of uninterpolated data, and arithmetic means of data interpolated by the multiquadric radial basis function, ordinary kriging, multi-Gaussian kriging, and sequential Gaussian simulation methods. While the total CO₂ emission rates estimated using the different techniques only varied by ±4.4%, the maps showed important differences. We suggest that the sequential Gaussian simulation method yields the most realistic representation of the spatial distribution of , but a variety of geostatistical methods are appropriate to estimate the total CO₂ emission rate from a study area, which is a primary goal in volcano monitoring research.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara