年尺度地震预测模型的国际研究现状

对未来1年内发生强震的预测在做好备灾应急准备和防震减灾工作上具有重要的现实需求.为反映近年来国际上关于1年尺度地震预测模型研究的进展,本文系统地整理了地震的统计概率预测模型、物理预测模型和混合预测模型,并从方法原理、预测效能评价、部署应用等角度进行了梳理.研究表明,目前国际上发展的1年尺度地震预测模型及其效能评价使用的参考模型的总体数量较少、建模原理主要基于G-R关系等统计学基本定律,显示该领域在基础理论架构、关键技术体系上并未足够成熟,这可能与相应的地震发生机理解释尚不完善、建立数理化的预测模型尚有困难等因素有关.     

基于非结构有限元的时间域海洋电磁三维反演

海洋电磁法是一种有效的钻前储层评价手段,可识别出海底构造是否储油气,从而减少干井率降低勘探成本.近年来,频率域三维海洋电磁反演得到了快速发展,但受到空气波的影响,其在浅海环境中无法取得很好的效果.为解决这一问题,本文研究时间域海洋电磁数据三维正反演.正演模拟和计算中,我们选择基于非结构网格的矢量有限元方法.该算法中空间离散采用非结构四面体网格,可很好地拟合复杂海底地形条件和地下复杂结构;而对于时间离散,我们采用无条件稳定的后推欧拉方法,以确保任意时间步长数值计算的稳定性.反演计算中,灵敏度信息采用伴随正演隐式进行计算;同时,依据时间域反演方法的特点采用L-BFGS方法计算模型修正量.通过利用合成数据反演结果证明了本文提出的三维时间域反演方法可用于复杂海底环境,特别是在浅海环境下的有效性.     

CAS FGOALS-g3 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)

This paper describes the datasets from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP) simulation experiments run with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,GridPoint version 3(CAS FGOALS-g3). FGOALS-g3 is driven by eight shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs) with different sets of future emission, concentration, and land-use scenarios. All Tier 1 and 2 experiments were carried out and were initialized using historical runs. A branch run method ...     

The effect of density-driven flow on the transport of high-concentration solutes in the hyporheic zone

In this study, both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the effect of density-driven flow on the transport of high-concentration pollutants in the hyporheic zone. The results show that the density gradient can change the flow of pore water and the strong density-driven flow can lead to an unstable flow, which increases the effect of preferential flow and thus causes the appearance of solute fingers in the hyporheic zone. Notably, these solute fingers become more obvious with the increase of depth. The appearance of solute fingers depends on the relative strength of the pumping exchange and density gradient, which are represented by the dimensionless number M* and N* respectively. Finger flows appear near the interface when M^* is less than 0.5 N^*. This study may contribute to better understanding the transport and destination of solutes and thus may provide some insights into the assessment on pollution incidents.     

Low‐temperature thermochronology of francolite: Insights into timing of Dead Sea Transform motion

Cambrian siliciclastic sequences along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) margin in southern Israel and southern Jordan host both detrital fluorapatite [D‐apatite] and U‐rich authigenic carbonate‐fluorapatite (francolite) [A‐apatite]. D‐apatite and underlying Neoproterozoic basement apatite yield fission‐track (FT) data reflecting Palaeozoic–Mesozoic sedimentary cycles and epeirogenic events, and dispersed (U–Th–Sm)/He (AHe) ages. A‐apatite, which may partially or completely replace D‐apatite, yields an early Miocene FT age suggesting formation by fracturing, hydrothermal fluid ascent and intra‐strata recrystallisation, linked to early DST motion. The DST, separating the African and Arabian plates, records ~105 km of sinistral strike‐slip displacement, but became more transtensional post‐5 Ma. Helium diffusion measurements on A‐apatite are consistent with thermally activated volume diffusion, indicating Tc ~52 to 56 ± 10°C (cooling rate 10°C/Ma). A‐apatite AHe data record Pliocene cooling (~35 to 40°C) during the transtensional phase of movement. This suggests that timing of important milestones in DST motion can be discerned using A‐apatite low‐temperature thermochronology data alone.     

基于数据挖掘CART算法的区域夏季降水日数分类与预测模型研究

夏季降水日数的准确预测,对于保障农业、运输业、电力等行业的有序进行具有重要现实意义.利用连云港市气象局提供的1951—2012年夏季降水数据对连云港地区的降水日数特征进行分析,难以直观地发现夏季降水日数随时间分布的规律.为进一步探索降水日数的发生规律,结合国家气候中心网站提供的多种气候因子数据,基于CART决策树算法构建了连云港地区夏季降水日数是否偏多与是否偏少的分类与预测模型.该模型可以发现在多种气候因子不同条件下,夏季降水日数是否偏多（偏少）的规律,模型的分类与预测都具有良好的效果.利用52 a的数据样本训练模型,模型的训练准确率为90.38%（86.54%）,再用剩余10 a数据样本检验模型,测试准确率为80%（80%）,并且得到规则集,方便气象业务人员使用以及决策服务人员参考.同时,为降水日数的预测提供了数据挖掘的新思路.     

京津冀生产性服务业关联特征分析

推动京津冀产业协同发展,要立足于产业关联,推进产业对接协作,在更高层次上实现区域优势互补、联动发展。本文基于北京市、天津市、河北省2007年与2012年的投入产出表,运用MRIO模型,编制了京津冀区域间129部门投入产出表,进而从京津冀地区影响力系数、感应度系数方面分析了京津冀地区生产性服务业产业关联特征。结果表明：①北京市信息服务业、科技服务业,天津市道路运输业、水上运输业对区域经济推动作用较强,河北省生产性服务业对区域经济主要起拉动作用。②北京市科技服务业与天津市信息服务业主要服务于本市其他各行业,对外地经济的辐射作用较低。③京津两市生产性服务业产业趋同现象严重,不利于区域经济的发展。     

Centurial Evolution of an Offshore Mud Deposition Area in the Changjiang (Yangtze) Estuary and Its Links to Environmental and Anthropogenic Activities

Large amounts of sediments originating from the Changjiang(Yangtze) River are deposited in the subaqueous delta and in the adjacent muddy area off the mouth and on the inner shelf of the East China Sea. The terrestrial sediments deposited in these areas not only contain information about the composition and environment of the source area, but they also record changes in anthropogenic activities. A sediment piston core(CJ0702) was extracted from the Changjiang subaqueous depocenter(31.00°N, 122.67°E) in a water depth of 22.0 m. The core was subsampled at 1 – 2 cm intervals and analyzed for grain size, clay mineralogy, and major element geochemistry. Results indicate a relatively high sediment accumulation rate of approximately 3.11 cm yr~(-1). These parameters exhibited only minor cyclical fluctuations in the core, which resulted from many factors. During the past 120 years, the Changjiang River-derived sediment is the primary source of sediment in the offshore mud area without evidence for the Yellow River-derived sediment increasing. After the trunk stream shifted from the North Branch to South Branch, the variations of proxies are controlled by the periodic fluctuation possibly linked to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). In addition, anthropogenic heavy metal concentrations can be divided into three stages, which coincide well with economic development and environmental protection policies.     

多模型协同下的城郊地区DEM构建方法研究

人类活动对地表的改造使其呈现形态多样化、不连续等特征,此时传统的DEM构建方法难以满足这些区域DEM精度要求。为此,本文提出了一种多模型协同构建DEM的思路,首先按照形态特征和语义信息对地形进行分类,然后对不同类型的地形区域,选择、设计适宜的方法分别进行DEM构建,最后将不同区域构建DEM结果融合拼接形成区域完整的DEM结果。本文选择江苏省南京市城市郊区某区域为实验区,以1:500比例尺地形图为基本数据源进行DEM构建实验。实验结果表明,与传统经典DEM构建方法相比,本文提出的多模型协同的DEM构建方法能够有效表达实验区域不同的地形特征,特别是对于人工改造的地形(如道路、边坡等区域),本文方法构建的DEM其形态精度优势显著;同时,基于验证点法的高程精度分析结果表明,本文方法构建DEM的高程精度亦优于传统DEM构建方法,特别是对于一些形态规则而高程信息相对稀少的区域,以边坡区域为例,经典DEM构建法平均误差均超过5 m,而本文构建结果平均误差为0.26 m,精度优势非常明显。研究表明本文提出的多模型协同的DEM构建方法适用于人类活动改造或显著影响的区域的DEM构建。     

对流层延迟对GNSS单点定位影响的全球评估

为研究对流层延迟时空差异性引起的单点定位偏差的不确定性,首先利用IGS ZPD产品分析其最大值、最小值、均值和STD与测站空间分布的相关性,结果显示,ZPD均值约为2.4 m,其存在随纬度增加而减小的总体趋势,但沿赤道不完全对称,在北半球离散度较大;然后针对单点定位模型,推导对流层延迟对定位参数解算的影响公式,并评估其对单点定位的影响,结果表明,对流层延迟对U方向的影响最大（可达7~15 m）,对N方向的影响居中（在±0.6 m以内）,对E方向的影响最小（在±0.2 m以内）。