A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Deposition and preservation of fluvio-tidal shallow-marine sandstones: A re-evaluation of the Neoproterozoic Jura Quartzite (western Scotland)

The 2 to 5 km thick, sandstone-dominated (>90%) Jura Quartzite is an extreme example of a mature Neoproterozoic sandstone, previously interpreted as a tide-influenced shelf deposit and herein re-interpreted within a fluvio-tidal deltaic depositional model. Three issues are addressed: (i) evidence for the re-interpretation from tidal shelf to tidal delta; (ii) reasons for vertical facies uniformity; and (iii) sand supply mechanisms to form thick tidal-shelf sandstones. The predominant facies (compound cross-bedded, coarse-grained sandstones) represents the lower parts of metres to tens of metres high, transverse fluvio-tidal bedforms with superimposed smaller bedforms. Ubiquitous erosional surfaces, some with granule–pebble lags, record erosion of the upper parts of those bedforms. There was selective preservation of the higher energy, topographically-lower, parts of channel-bar systems. Strongly asymmetrical, bimodal, palaeocurrents are interpreted as due to associated selective preservation of fluvially-enhanced ebb tidal currents. Finer-grained facies are scarce, due largely to suspended sediment bypass. They record deposition in lower-energy environments, including channel mouth bars, between and down depositional-dip of higher energy fluvio-ebb tidal bars. The lack of wave-formed sedimentary structures and low continuity of mudstone and sandstone interbeds, support deposition in a non-shelf setting. Hence, a sand-rich, fluvial–tidal, current-dominated, largely sub-tidal, delta setting is proposed. This new interpretation avoids the problem of transporting large amounts of coarse sand to a shelf. Facies uniformity and vertical stacking are likely due to sediment oversupply and bypass rather than balanced sediment supply and subsidence rates. However, facies evidence of relative sea level changes is difficult to recognise, which is attributed to: (i) the areally extensive and polygenetic nature of the preserved facies, and (ii) a large stored sediment buffer that dampened response to relative sea-level and/or sediment supply changes. Consideration of preservation bias towards high-energy deposits may be more generally relevant, especially to thick Neoproterozoic and Lower Palaeozoic marine sandstones.     

The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite: A preserved record of atmospheric entry processes

Fusion crusts form during the atmospheric entry heating of meteorites and preserve a record of the conditions that occurred during deceleration in the atmosphere. The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite closely resembles that of other stony meteorites, and in particular CM2 chondrites, since it is dominated by olivine phenocrysts set in a glassy mesostasis with magnetite, and is highly vesicular. Dehydration cracks are unusually abundant in Winchcombe. Failure of this weak layer is an additional ablation mechanism to produce large numbers of particles during deceleration, consistent with the observation of pulses of plasma in videos of the Winchcombe fireball. Calving events might provide an observable phenomenon related to meteorites that are particularly susceptible to dehydration. Oscillatory zoning is observed within olivine phenocrysts in the fusion crust, in contrast to other meteorites, perhaps owing to temperature fluctuations resulting from calving events. Magnetite monolayers are found in the crust, and have also not been previously reported, and form discontinuous strata. These features grade into magnetite rims formed on the external surface of the crust and suggest the trapping of surface magnetite by collapse of melt. Magnetite monolayers may be a feature of meteorites that undergo significant degassing. Silicate warts with dendritic textures were observed and are suggested to be droplets ablated from another stone in the shower. They, therefore, represent the first evidence for intershower transfer of ablation materials and are consistent with the other evidence in the Winchcombe meteorite for unusually intense gas loss and ablation, despite its low entry velocity.     

DISOLV: A Python Package for the Interpretation of Borehole Dilution Tests

Single borehole dilution tests (SBDTs) are an inexpensive but effective technique for hydrogeological characterization of hard-rock aquifers. We present a freely available, easy-to-use, open-source Python package, DISOLV, for plotting, analyzing, and modeling SBDT data. DISOLV can significantly reduce the time spent interpreting field data by helping to identify flowing fractures intersecting the borehole and estimate the corresponding flow rates. DISOLV is successfully benchmarked against two analytical solutions. We also present an example application to real data collected in a borehole in a crystalline basement aquifer in southern India.     

Evaluation of the real-time TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation analysis for an operational flood prediction system in Nzoia Basin,Lake Victoria,Africa

Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from 2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71). Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must.     

Supersonic jet formation and propagation in x-pinches

Observations of supersonic jet propagation in low-current x-pinches are reported. X-pinches comprising of four 7.5 ??m diameter tungsten wires were driven by an 80 kA, 50 ns current pulse from a compact pulser. Coronal plasma surrounding the wire cores was accelerated perpendicular to their surface due to the global J×B force, and traveled toward the axis of the x-pinch to form an axially propagating jet. These jets moved towards the electrodes and, late in time (??150 ns), were observed to propagate well above the anode with a velocity of 3.3±0.6×10⁴ m/s. Tungsten jets remained collimated at distances of up to 16 mm from the cross point, and an estimate of the local sound speed gives a Mach number of ??6. This is the first demonstration that supersonic plasma jets can be produced using x-pinches with such a small, low current pulser. Experimental data compares well to three-dimensional simulations using the GORGON resistive MHD code, and possible scaling to astrophysical jets is discussed.     

Progressive failure of sheeted rock slopes: the 2009–2010 Rhombus Wall rock falls in Yosemite Valley,California, USA

Progressive rock‐fall failures in natural rock slopes are common in many environments, but often elude detailed quantitative documentation and analysis. Here we present high‐resolution photography, video, and laser scanning data that document spatial and temporal patterns of a 15‐month‐long sequence of at least 14 rock falls from the Rhombus Wall, a sheeted granitic cliff in Yosemite Valley, California. The rock‐fall sequence began on 26 August 2009 with a small failure at the tip of an overhanging rock slab. Several hours later, a series of five rock falls totaling 736 m³ progressed upward along a sheeting joint behind the overhanging slab. Over the next 3 weeks, audible cracking occurred on the Rhombus Wall, suggesting crack propagation, while visual monitoring revealed opening of a sheeting joint adjacent to the previous failure surface. On 14 September 2009 a 110 m³ slab detached along this sheeting joint. Additional rock falls between 30 August and 20 November 2010, totaling 187 m³, radiated outward from the initial failure area along cliff (sub)parallel sheeting joints. We suggest that these progressive failures might have been related to stress redistributions accompanying propagation of sheeting joints behind the cliff face. Mechanical analyses indicate that tensile stresses should occur perpendicular to the cliff face and open sheeting joints, and that sheeting joints should propagate parallel to a cliff face from areas of stress concentrations. The analyses also account for how sheeting joints can propagate to lengths many times greater than their depths behind cliff faces. We posit that as a region of failure spreads across a cliff face, stress concentrations along its margin will spread with it, promoting further crack propagation and rock falls. Published in 2012. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Predicting sediment inputs to aquatic ecosystems across England and Wales under current environmental conditions

The awareness of water quality issues has never been higher. As part of its continuing strategic diffuse pollution policy support, ADAS recently undertook to identify catchments across England and Wales that could potentially fail recently proposed suspended sediment yield targets under current environmental conditions. The total suspended sediment loads (SSL) delivered to all rivers were assumed to comprise contributions from diffuse sources in the agricultural and urban sectors, as well as from eroding channel banks and point sources represented by sewage treatment works (STWs). Diffuse agricultural sediment loss to rivers was predicted using the PSYCHIC model. Corresponding inputs from diffuse urban sources were estimated on the basis of an Event Mean Concentration (EMC) methodology. Channel bank sediment inputs were calculated using a prototype national scale model, while point source sediment contributions were based on a register of consented effluent discharges. Modelled SSL were validated (r²=68%) against PARCOM data (1999–2003) for the delivery of sediment to different regions of the UK maritime area. The results of the validation were considered to be realistic for a national scale predictor. The modelling exercise suggested that those catchments currently at risk of exceeding proposed suspended sediment yield critical thresholds are largely confined to upland areas across Wales and northwest England and the chalklands of southern and eastern England.