Gravel transport,gravel harvesting,and channel-bed degradation in rivers draining the southern olympic mountains,Washington, U.S.A.

The potential for gravel extraction to adversely affect anadromous fish habitat in three gravel-bed rivers of southwestern Washington, U.S.A., prompted the need to determine sustainable rates of gravel removal. This was accomplished by evaluating the components of a long-term sediment mass balance for the three rivers. Average annual gravel transport was determined by three independent methods. The closely agreeing results indicate that annual bedload supply decreases downstream through deposition and storage in response to declining gradient and from attrition during transport, as confirmed by laboratory experiments. A survey of gravel-bar harvesting operations indicates that the annual replenishment rate has been exceeded for up to three decades, often by more than tenfold. Analysis of data from nine stream gauging stations over a 55-yr period indicates degradation of about 0.03 m/yr in these reaches and suggests that bed degradation has produced the difference between the replenishment rates and the volumes of gravel harvested from the river beds and bars.     

Challenges in urban water management in the United States

The growing intensity of use of water in the urban environment of the United States is posing significant challenges for its supply, utilization, and protection. The development of traditional water sources is becoming more difficult, and water suppliers are turning to conservation and reuse as alternatives. Price disincentives and better water use management are being utilized to attempt to deal with limited capacity for distribution of water in periods of high demand. Urban runoff presents significant localized flooding problems. Management of floods and floodplains is given focus under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, which has as its goal the deterrence of development in flood-prone areas. Water quality goals, being developed and pursued under the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, are becoming more encompassing as the breadth of pollutants identified in the urban environment expands. Wastewater control strategies developed under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972 are expanding their emphasis upon nonpoint source pollution, as opposed to traditional emphasis upon point source pollution. Integrated management of the water resource will become increasingly necessary to adequately address water problems in the urban environment. State and local responsibilities for urban water management and control will likely increase.     

Transient Behaviour of Tropospheric Ozone Precursors in a Global 3-D CTM and Their Indirect Greenhouse Effects

The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow the changes in the tropospheric distributions of the two major radiatively-active trace gases, methane and tropospheric ozone, following the emission of pulses of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species, methane, carbon monoxide, NO_x and hydrogen. The radiative impacts of NO_x emissionswere dependent on the location chosen for the emission pulse, whether at the surface or in the upper troposphere or whether in the northern or southern hemispheres. Global warming potentials were derived for each of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species by integrating the methane and tropospheric ozone responses over a 100 year time horizon. Indirect radiative forcing due to methane and tropospheric ozone changes appear to be significant for all of the tropospheric ozone precursor species studied. Whereas the radiative forcing from methane changes is likely to be dominated by methane emissions, that from tropospheric ozone changes is controlled by all the tropospheric ozone precursor gases, particularly NO_xemissions. The indirect radiative forcing impacts of tropospheric ozone changes may be large enough such that ozone precursors should be considered in the basket of trace gases through which policy-makers aim to combat global climate change.     

POPULATION CENSUS WITH THE AID OF AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS: AN EXPERIMENT IN THE CITY OF LEEDS

This study shows how aerial photographs can be of value in a population census. The census and the enumeration district maps were used initially to obtain population data and the housing stock was derived from the aerial photographs. From these the population densities were determined of a number of sample enumeration districts containing a single type of house. Another set of enumeration districts was selected and the housing stock again derived from the aerial photographs. By considering the type and quantity of housing stock and the population density of each housing type, the population figures were estimated for each enumeration district. The values of these population estimates were then compared with the values recorded in the census. The overall population estimate had an error of only 2%, but the estimates for some of the individual enumeration districts showed greater errors. These errors are assessed and analysed and some suggestions are made to improve the methodology used in this study.     

Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations

Large ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are required to explore modelling uncertainty and make probabilistic predictions of future transient climate change at regional scales. These are not yet computationally feasible so we have developed a technique to emulate the response of such an ensemble by scaling equilibrium patterns of climate change derived from much cheaper “slab” model ensembles in which the atmospheric component of an AOGCM is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean. Climate feedback parameters are diagnosed for each member of a slab model ensemble and used to drive an energy balance model (EBM) to predict the time-dependent response of global surface temperature expected for different combinations of uncertain AOGCM parameters affecting atmospheric, land and sea-ice processes. The EBM projections are then used to scale normalised patterns of change derived for each slab member, and hence emulate the response of the relevant atmospheric model version when coupled to a dynamic ocean, in response to a 1% per annum increase in CO₂. The emulated responses are validated by comparison with predictions from a 17 member ensemble of AOGCM simulations, constructed from variants of HadCM3 using the same parameter combinations as 17 members of the slab model ensemble. Cross-validation permits estimation of the spatial and temporal dependence of emulation error, and also allows estimation of a correction field to correct discrepancies between the scaled equilibrium patterns and the transient response, reducing the emulation error. Emulated transient responses and their associated errors are obtained from the slab ensemble for 129 pseudo-HadCM3 versions containing multiple atmospheric parameter perturbations. These are combined to produce regional frequency distributions for the transient response of annual surface temperature change and boreal winter precipitation change. The technique can be extended to any surface climate variable demonstrating a scaleable, approximately linear response to forcing.     

Elasticity of an upper mantle clinopyroxene

The ambient pressure elastic properties of a natural clinopyroxene (C2/c symmetry) from Kilbourne Hole, NM have been determined. In terms of end-members, diopside (CaMgSi₂O₆), hedenbergite (CaFeSi₂O₆), jadeite (NaAlSi₂O₆), cosmochlor (NaCrSi₂O₆), and Mg-Tschermak (MgAl(AlSi)O₆), its composition is Di₇₂He₉Jd₃Cr₃Ts₁₂. The analytic density, based on chemistry and cell parameters is 3.327 (0.003) g/cm³. The elastic constants [c₁₁, c₁₂, c₁₃, c₁₅, c₂₂, c₂₃, c₂₅, c₃₃, c₃₅, c₄₄, c₄₆, c₅₅, c₆₆] are [273.8 (0.9), 83.5 (1.3), 80.0 (1.1), 9.0 (0.6), 183.6 (0.9), 59.9 (1.6), 9.5 (1.0), 229.5 (0.9), 48.1 (0.6), 76.5 (0.9), 8.4 (0.8), 73.0 (0.4), 81.6 (1.0)] GPa where uncertainties are reported at the 95% confidence level. The aggregate (mean of Hashin-Strikman bounds) adiabatic bulk modulus is 117.2 (0.7) GPa, and the shear modulus is 72.2 (0.2) GPa. Although measured moduli are broadly consistent with trends in elasticity versus atomic volume, deviations from the systematics would produce significant (percent level) changes in calculated velocities for candidate mantle mineral assemblages. The compositional dependence of elasticity for several clinopyroxenes is explored on the basis of just the Di+He and Jd+Ts mole fractions. The bulk modulus lies within experimental uncertainties of the linear mixture of end-member properties while the shear modulus deviates by 3%. Received: 29 September 1997 / Revised, accepted: 4 March 1998