Reconciling strong slab pull and weak plate bending: The plate motion constraint on the strength of mantle slabs

Although subducting slabs undergo a bending deformation that resists tectonic plate motions, the magnitude of this resistance is not known because of poor constraints on slab strength. However, because slab bending slows the relatively rapid motions of oceanic plates, observed plate motions constrain the importance of bending. We estimated the slab pull force and the bending resistance globally for 207 subduction zone transects using new measurements of the bending curvature determined from slab seismicity. Predicting plate motions using a global mantle flow model, we constrain the viscosity of the bending slab to be at most ~ 300 times more viscous than the upper mantle; stronger slabs are intolerably slowed by the bending deformation. Weaker slabs, however, cannot transmit a pull force sufficient to explain rapid trenchward plate motions unless slabs stretch faster than seismically observed rates of ~ 10^− 15 s^− 1. The constrained bending viscosity (~ 2 × 10²³ Pa s) is larger than previous estimates that yielded similar or larger bending resistance (here ~ 25% of forces). This apparent discrepancy occurs because slabs bend more gently than previously thought, with an average radius of curvature of 390 km that permits subduction of strong slabs. This gentle bending may ultimately permit plate tectonics on Earth.     

The differential impact of physical disorder and collective efficacy: a geographically weighted regression on violent crime

While much of the research on neighborhood crime considers the neighborhood as a whole, this study utilizes spatial analysis techniques to examine how the presence of disorder and collective efficacy create unique pockets of opportunities for criminal behavior within neighborhoods. This spatial perspective reveals how the effect of disorder and efficacy upon crime patterns itself varies across a neighborhood. Physical disorder is measured through systematic social observations and the level of collective efficacy is evaluated through survey responses of neighborhood residents. The indices of disorder and efficacy are compared to crime data from police call logs using geographically weighted regression. Our findings demonstrate a complex spatial relationship between disorder and efficacy. The effects of disorder and efficacy are not consistent across an entire neighborhood, but rather display local variations in small geographical areas within neighborhoods, including some pockets of the neighborhood where the relationships between disorder, efficacy, and crime were contrary to the expected relationships. Based upon these findings, we conclude opportunity is central to understanding crime, and emphasize the role of informal social control in neighborhoods.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011. During this period, 522 earthquakes and 92 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 10 events with M _L????2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2011 was far below the average over the previous 36?years. Most noteworthy were the earthquake sequence of Sierre (VS) in January, with two events of M _L 3.3 and 3.2, the M _L 3.3 earthquake at a depth of 31?km below Bregenz, and the M _L 3.1 event near Delémont. The two strongest events near Sierre produced shaking of intensity IV.     

Surface heat flow and CO2 emissions within the Ohaaki hydrothermal field,Taupo Volcanic Zone,New Zealand

Carbon dioxide emissions and heat flow have been determined from the Ohaaki hydrothermal field, Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ), New Zealand following 20 a of production (116 MW_e). Soil CO₂ degassing was quantified with 2663 CO₂ flux measurements using the accumulation chamber method, and 2563 soil temperatures were measured and converted to equivalent heat flow (W m⁻²) using published soil temperature heat flow functions. Both CO₂ flux and heat flow were analysed statistically and then modelled using 500 sequential Gaussian simulations. Forty subsoil CO₂ gas samples were also analysed for stable C isotopes. Following 20 a of production, current CO₂ emissions equated to 111 ± 6.7 T/d. Observed heat flow was 70 ± 6.4 MW, compared with a pre-production value of 122 MW. This 52 MW reduction in surface heat flow is due to production-induced drying up of all alkali–Cl outflows (61.5 MW) and steam-heated pools (8.6 MW) within the Ohaaki West thermal area (OHW). The drying up of all alkali–Cl outflows at Ohaaki means that the soil zone is now the major natural pathway of heat release from the high-temperature reservoir. On the other hand, a net gain in thermal ground heat flow of 18 MW (from 25 MW to 43.3 ± 5 MW) at OHW is associated with permeability increases resulting from surface unit fracturing by production-induced ground subsidence. The Ohaaki East (OHE) thermal area showed no change in distribution of shallow and deep soil temperature contours despite 20 a of production, with an observed heat flow of 26.7 ± 3 MW and a CO₂ emission rate of 39 ± 3 T/d. The negligible change in the thermal status of the OHE thermal area is attributed to the low permeability of the reservoir beneath this area, which has limited production (mass extraction) and sheltered the area from the pressure decline within the main reservoir. Chemistry suggests that although alkali–Cl outflows once contributed significantly to the natural surface heat flow (∼50%) they contributed little (<1%) to pre-production CO₂ emissions due to the loss of >99% of the original CO₂ content due to depressurisation and boiling as the fluids ascended to the surface. Consequently, the soil has persisted as the major (99%) pathway of CO₂ release to the atmosphere from the high temperature reservoir at Ohaaki. The CO₂ flux and heat flow surveys indicate that despite 20 a of production the variability in location, spatial extent and magnitude of CO₂ flux remains consistent with established geochemical and geophysical models of the Ohaaki Field. At both OHW and OHE carbon isotopic analyses of soil gas indicate a two-stage fractionation process for moderate-flux (>60 g m⁻² d⁻¹) sites; boiling during fluid ascent within the underlying reservoir and isotopic enrichment as CO₂ diffuses through porous media of the soil zone. For high-flux sites (>300 g m⁻² d⁻¹), the δ¹³CO₂ signature (−7.4 ± 0.3‰ OHW and −6.5 ± 0.6‰ OHE) is unaffected by near-surface (soil zone) fractionation processes and reflects the composition of the boiled magmatic CO₂ source for each respective upflow. Flux thresholds of <30 g m⁻² d⁻¹ for purely diffusive gas transport, between 30 and 300 g m⁻² d⁻¹ for combined diffusive–advective transport, and ?300 g m⁻² d⁻¹ for purely advective gas transport at Ohaaki were assigned. δ¹³CO₂ values and cumulative probability plots of CO₂ flux data both identified a threshold of ∼15 g m⁻² d⁻¹ by which background (atmospheric and soil respired) CO₂ may be differentiated from hydrothermal CO₂.     

Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment.     

Tomographic measurements of pore filling at infiltration fronts

For certain porous media and initial conditions, constant flux infiltrations show a saturation profile which exhibits overshoot. This overshoot is the cause of gravity driven fingering, cannot be described by standard models of unsaturated flow, and is likely controlled by the exact nature of the pore filling at the initial front. Here we report synchrotron X-ray micro-tomography measurements of the porous medium and measure which pores are filled by water and air at the initial wetting front as a function of flux. We find that at high fluxes all the pores are filled with water; for intermediate fluxes, the pores along the edge of the column remain unsaturated; and for low fluxes the pores in the bulk of the experimental column remain unsaturated. This suggests that the unsaturated overshoot conditions observed at higher fluxes are primarily an edge effect of the column. The results can help delineate the correct continuum models that can capture overshoot and gravity driven fingering.     

Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.     

Evidence of summer parturition in shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) sharks from New Zealand waters

A litter of eight near‐term shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus Rafinesque 1810) embryos is described from a 317.5 cm total length (TL) female caught off Hawke Bay, south‐east North Island, New Zealand on 5 February 1999. The embryos (3 males and 5 females) were 67.2–77.0 cm TL. Embryo length, condition, hepato‐somatic indices, and mass of yolk in their stomachs all indicate they were close to birth. This is the first shortfin mako litter reported from New Zealand and is outside the late winter‐early spring parturition period predicted from estimated embryonic and juvenile growth rates. Uterine width data from four mature non‐pregnant females and age‐0+ length‐at‐capture data suggest parturition occurs from September to late February (late winter‐mid summer) but is infrequent after January. We suggest that shortfin makos have an extended parturition period, possibly year‐round, with peak parturition occurring in late winter‐spring.     

Bottom water and benthonic foraminifera in the North Atlantic—Glacial-interglacial contrasts

Today, below 2500 m, benthonic foraminiferal faunas in the North Atlantic are dominated by a few species. Faunal composition changes slowly with increasing depth and decreasing temperature. Surface sediment and down-core counts of benthonic foraminifera reported by Phleger, Parker, and Peirson (1953) in the reports of the Swedish Deep-Sea Expedition have been supplemented by additional bottom sediment and piston core samples. Present-day benthonic foraminiferal assemblages from the deeper portions of the North Atlantic appear to be controlled more by the distribution of bottom water types than by bathymetry. In most piston cores, the assemblages vary greatly during the last 150,000 yr, suggesting depression and elevation of faunas at the core site through a depth range of several hundred meters. This would indicate that bottom water characteristics have shifted back and forth in this interval of time and, therefore, that bottom circulation partakes in the well-documented shifts recorded for surface waters of the North Atlantic. It appears that dense water, similar to present-day North Atlantic Deep Water, was produced over a wide area north of 45° N during cooler intervals and that it spread widely at depth.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2015 and 2016

This report summarizes the seismicity in Switzerland and surrounding regions in the years 2015 and 2016. In 2015, the Swiss Seismological Service detected and located 735 earthquakes in the region under consideration. With a total of 20 earthquakes of magnitude M_L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity of potentially felt events in 2015 was close to the average of 23 earthquakes over the previous 40 years. Seismic activity was above average in 2016 with 872 located earthquakes of which 31 events had M_L ≥ 2.5. The strongest event in the analyzed period was the M_L 4.1 Salgesch earthquake, which occurred northeast of Sierre (VS) in October 2016. The event was felt in large parts of Switzerland and had a maximum intensity of V. Derived focal mechanisms and relative hypocenter relocations of aftershocks image a SSE dipping reverse fault, which likely also hosted an M_L 3.9 earthquake in 2003. Another remarkable earthquake sequence in the Valais occurred close to Sion with four felt events (M_L 2.7–3.2) in 2015/16. We associate this sequence with a system of WNW-ESE striking fault segments north of the Rhône valley. Similarities with a sequence in 2011, which was located about 10 km to the NE, suggest the existence of an en-echelon system of basement faults accommodating dextral slip along the Rhône-Simplon line in this area. Another exceptional earthquake sequence occurred close to Singen (Germany) in November 2016. Relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms image a SW dipping transtensional fault segment, which is likely associated with a branch of the Hegau-Bodensee Graben. On the western boundary of this graben, micro-earthquakes close to Schlattingen (TG) in 2015/16 are possibly related to a NE dipping branch of the Neuhausen Fault. Other cases of earthquakes felt by the public during 2015/16 include earthquakes in the region of Biel, Vallorcine, Solothurn, and Savognin.