Numerical modeling of neotectonic movements and state of stresses in the central Seismic Gap region,Garhwal Himalaya

This paper presents finite element modeling （FEM） to simulate the present-day stress field and crustal deformation using NE-SW structural section in the central Seismic Gap region of the Garhwal Himalaya. Our study deals with the effect of geometrical characteristics and rock layer parameters on the upper crust. Modeling results show that two types of tectonic regimes developed in the central Seismic Gap region： the geotectonics of the northern part has been controlled by regional compression, whereas southern part is characterized by regional extension. Correspondingly, thrust faults are induced in the northern part and normal faults are extensively developed in the southern front. Those evidences noticeably indicate that the compressive tectonic environment of the Himalaya becomes change into the extensional tectonic regime in its front. The computed shear stress accumulation along the northern fiat of Main Himalayan Thrust （MHT） implies that considerable amount of interseismic stress is building up along the MHT system in the Himalaya, which ultimately release through the possible future great Himalayan earthquake （M 〉 8）. The comparison between our modeled stress field, faulting pattern and horizontal shortening rate with the distribution of the microseismic events, focal mechanism solutions, active faulting and GPS data in the central Seismic Gap region shows good agreement.     

Response of subsurface waters in the eastern Arabian Sea to tropical cyclones

Thermister chain data at different depths for June 1998 cyclone in the Arabian Sea at a location (69.2 E,15.5 N) which is about 60 km to the left of the cyclone track indicates subsurface warming below 60 m and inertial oscillations of temperature with a periodicity of about 2 days. The oscillations continued for ∼15 days even after the cyclone crossed the coast. The analysis of the buoy, DS1 located at the same position also suggests a stabilized southward flow after about two weeks of the cyclone crossed the coast. Analysis of the buoy data for May 1999 cyclone in the same region also indicates similar pattern. In order to investigate the effect of cyclone–ocean interaction and primarily to understand the process for the subsurface warming, 3-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model is configured for the eastern part of the Arabian Sea. The model uses high horizontal resolution of about 6 km near the coast and a terrain following sigma coordinate in the vertical with 26 levels. The study focuses on surface cooling and temperature rise in the underlying waters and explains its mechanism through upwelling and downwelling respectively. The simulations in concurrence with the observations suggest that the occurrence of subsurface warming precedes the surface cooling with a lag of ˜a day as the cyclone advances DS1. The simulations also demonstrate local temperature stratification plays an important role for cooling of the upper ocean and warming of the subsurface waters and extent of warming is directly related to the depth of the thermocline.