试论质量体系有效性的保持

提出了保持质量体系有效运行的前提和基础 ,关键和保证措施 ,并指出了组织企业保持质量体系持续有效的方法和途径。     

南美Oriente盆地北部海绿石砂岩油藏特征及成藏规律

南美厄瓜多尔Oriente盆地斜坡带发育的白垩系Napo组高伽马特征的UT海绿石砂岩段是成熟探区新发现的隐蔽含油层段。本文分析了海绿石砂岩储层的矿物组成、孔隙结构、成岩作用、物性特点,并结合烃源岩评价与石油空间分布探讨海绿石砂岩油藏的成藏特征。海绿石粘土矿物以颗粒形式存在,与石英共同构成海绿石砂岩的颗粒组分,海绿石砂岩的孔隙结构具有双峰特征,束缚水含量高,属于中-低孔、中-低渗储层类型,孔隙类型主要是剩余粒间孔。海绿石砂岩储层中石英次生加大属Ⅱ级,长石碎屑颗粒发生溶蚀作用,含铁碳酸盐类胶结物发育,结合泥岩低的I/S混层比和高的最高峰温值T_max,指示海绿石砂岩层段属于中成岩阶段A期的产物。与海绿石砂岩油藏紧邻的大面积分布的Ⅱ₁腐泥型成熟烃源岩就是缓翼斜坡带的生烃中心,大面积连续发育的海绿石砂岩与之构成优越的源储组合,有利于上生下储式成藏。海绿石砂岩油藏表现为近源性、成藏晚期性等特点,规模发育的海绿石砂岩储层得以成藏的主要运聚机制是体积流和扩散流运聚机制。这对盆地其它油区同类油藏的发现具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Coupling statistical and dynamical methods for spatial downscaling of precipitation

The resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse for climate change impact studies at the catchment or site-specific scales. To overcome this problem, both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods have been developed. Each downscaling method has its advantages and drawbacks, which have been described in great detail in the literature. This paper evaluates the improvement in statistical downscaling (SD) predictive power when using predictors from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) over a GCM for downscaling site-specific precipitation. Our approach uses mixed downscaling, combining both dynamic and statistical methods. Precipitation, a critical element of hydrology studies that is also much more difficult to downscale than temperature, is the only variable evaluated in this study. The SD method selected here uses a stepwise linear regression approach for precipitation quantity and occurrence (similar to the well-known Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and called SDSM-like herein). In addition, a discriminant analysis (DA) was tested to generate precipitation occurrence, and a weather typing approach was used to derive statistical relationships based on weather types, and not only on a seasonal basis as is usually done. The existing data record was separated into a calibration and validation periods. To compare the relative efficiency of the SD approaches, relationships were derived at the same sites using the same predictors at a 300km scale (the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis) and at a 45km scale with data from the limited-area Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) driven by NCEP data at its boundaries. Predictably, using CRCM variables as predictors rather than NCEP data resulted in a much-improved explained variance for precipitation, although it was always less than 50?% overall. For precipitation occurrence, the SDSM-like model slightly overestimated the frequencies of wet and dry periods, while these were well-replicated by the DA-based model. Both the SDSM-like and DA-based models reproduced the percentage of wet days, but the wet and dry statuses for each day were poorly downscaled by both approaches. Overall, precipitation occurrence downscaled by the DA-based model was much better than that predicted by the SDSM-like model. Despite the added complexity, the weather typing approach was not better at downscaling precipitation than approaches without classification. Overall, despite significant improvements in precipitation occurrence prediction by the DA scheme, and even going to finer scales predictors, the SD approach tested here still explained less than 50?% of the total precipitation variance. While going to even smaller scale predictors (10–15?km) might improve results even more, such smaller scales would basically transform the direct outputs of climate models into impact models, thus negating the need for statistical downscaling approaches.     

晋中市人工防雹减灾系统研究

利用雷达探测信息、地面气象观测资料和高空探测资料 ,通过计算机分析处理 ,对冰雹天气的发生、发展进行分析预报 ,并计算多单体任意雹云核心部位的覆盖面积 ,对不同地理位置的各炮点 ,经过极坐标和三维直角坐标系的变换 ,确定雹云相对于不同空间位置的各炮点的准确位置 ,并对各炮点不同弹型的弹道方程进行连续模拟和分析计算 ,最终确定在炮控范围内的雹云体内弹着点的准确位置 ,并通过计算云中含水量、零度层高度、云体体积 ,准确得出各个炮点的射击诸元 (射击仰角、方位、扇面和射击剂量等 ) ,通过通讯网络 ,通知各有关炮点实施作业     

太湖水体和沉积物细菌群落分布格局及其驱动因素

水体和沉积物是湖泊生态系统中迥异但又紧密相连的两类生境,栖息在这两类生境中的细菌在维持生态系统平衡和驱动元素循环中起着关键性作用。为了探究湖泊水体和沉积物细菌群落的分布格局,本文对太湖四个湖区水体和沉积物中细菌群落进行调查,基于高通量测序技术和统计分析手段,分析这两类生境中的细菌群落组成和多样性水平、分布特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:放线菌门(Actinobacteria)、变形菌门(Proteobacteria)和蓝细菌门(Cyanobacteria)是水体细菌群落中最主要的细菌门,而沉积物中Proteobacteria占据优势地位。在两类生境中,太湖西部区域细菌群落丰富度和独特性(LCBD)相对较高,各区域群落结构表现出显著性差异。对水体而言,电导率、pH值、PC1(重金属组成)和沉积物孔隙度是驱动细菌丰富度的重要因子,PC1、水温及pH值是影响细菌群落LCBD的重要因子,而细菌网络复杂性随pH值的增加而增加,且在高pH环境中占主导地位;对沉积物而言,其丰富度和LCBD的重要影响因子均是沉积物中总磷和锂,细菌网络复杂性随金属元素施加的环境压力增大而降低,但随总磷、磷酸盐和铵态氮浓度的...     

1965-2007年沙澧河流域潜在蒸散量变化趋势

利用1965-2007年沙澧河流域12个气象站的逐月气候资料,采用FAO推荐的彭曼-孟蒂斯公式计算潜在蒸散量,分析了沙澧河流域43 a潜在蒸散量的变化趋势,并在ArcGIS环境下通过Spline插值法分析了该流域潜在蒸散量空间分布特征,此外还对造成潜在蒸散量变化的主要气候影响因子进行了探讨。结果表明:从空间分布来看,潜在蒸散量年和四季从西北到东南基本呈下降趋势。从时间变化来看,年潜在蒸散量略呈下降趋势,但变化不明显;冬、春季呈增加趋势,年际变化率分别为0.189 mm.a-1和0.540 mm.a-1,夏、秋季呈减小趋势,其中夏季减少尤其明显,年际变化率为-1.354 mm.a-1。日照是影响年和夏、秋季潜在蒸散量变化的主导因素,而气温是影响冬、春季潜在蒸散量变化的主导因素。     

环渤海地区4～10天风速预报中相似预报法的应用

依据逐步相似过滤法和最小相似离度原理,利用NCEP逐日再分析资料、T213数值预报产品和环渤海72站1958—2008年地面观测站风速资料,建立不同因子组合的相似过滤方案,制作环渤海72站4～10天每日4次、日最大风速预报。通过多个相似过滤方案预报准确率检验,确定“最佳”逐步相似过滤方案。经过2007—2008年预报检验表明：每日4次风速预报中,0~2级风速的预报效果最好,4～10天平均TS评分达到67%;日最大风速预报中,3~4级4～10天平均TS评分为54.1%,5级及以上的TS评分为17.1%。在风力不太强的情况下,该方法对于中期风速预报有一定的参考价值。     

S-wave velocity and Poisson''''s ratio structure of crust in Yunnan and its implication

Receiver function of body wave under the 23 stations in Yunnan was extracted from 3-component broadband digital recording of teleseismic event. Thus, the S-wave velocity structure and distribution characteristics of Poisson's ratio in crust of Yunnan are obtained by inversion. The results show that the crustal thickness is gradually thinned from north to south. The crustal thickness in Zhongdian of northwest reaches as many as 62.0 km and the one in Jinghong of further south end is only 30.2 km. What should be especially noted is that there exists a Moho upheaval running in NS in the Chuxiong region and a Moho concave is generally parallel to it in Dongchuan. In addition, there exists an obvious transversal inhomogeneity for the S-wave velocity structure in upper mantle and crust in the Yunnan region. The low velocity layer exists not only in 10.0-15.0 km in upper crust in some regions, but also in 30.0-40.0 km in lower crust. Generally, the Poisson's ratio is on the high side, however it has a better co     

气象卫星遥感预警福建省森林火灾

应用NOAA卫星遥感资料，研究森林防火期内森林植被的干燥指数的变化，结合分析相应的森林火灾的资料，做出福建省森林火险等级空间分布，应用福建省地理信息系统，根据高火险等级的地理位置，预警该地可能发生森林火灾。     

东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流

文中从夏季东亚热带、副热带环流系统特点出发 ,定义了能较好表征东亚夏季风环流年际变化的特征指数 ,并分析了东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流及夏季中国东部降水的关系。文中定义的东亚夏季风指数既反映了夏季东亚大气环流风场的变化特征 ,也较好地反映了夏季中国东部降水的年际变化特征。此外 ,还探讨了东亚夏季风指数变化的先兆信号