用支持向量机方法作德阳降水预报

本文对支持向量机(svm)回归方法的基本原理作了简要的概述.用常规观测资料并依据预报人员的实际工作经验选取预报因子,采取经典统计预报方法的方式,利用svm方法,选取径向基作为核函数对德阳市各站日降雨量建立预报模型.     

西宁黄土碎屑锆石年龄特征及其 对黄土高原黄土物源的指示意义

物源研究是理解黄土高原风成沉积物中古环境记录的关键一环。众多证据表明,黄土高原西北部的阿拉善高原及其周边广袤干旱地区是黄土高原黄土的主要风尘源区。但是,基于锆石U-Pb同位素地质年代学的证据对此提出了质疑。黄土高原黄土与青藏高原北部物质中的锆石具有相似的年龄分布,预示黄土高原风尘主要以西风搬运的方式来自青藏高原北部,特别是柴达木盆地。本研究通过分析西宁黄土的锆石年龄特征验证此假说。西宁处于在从青藏高原北部到黄土高原的假想搬运路线上。西宁黄土主要来自青藏高原北部的干旱区。西宁黄土中锆石的主要年龄分布与黄土高原黄土相似,反映青藏高原北部确实为黄土高原黄土的主要物质来源。但是,与黄土高原黄土相比,西宁黄土缺少年龄在360Ma左右和年龄小于100Ma的锆石。这两组年龄的锆石可能来自其他地区,例如处于中亚造山带。由于阿拉善干旱区也通过河流搬运接收来自青藏高原北部的物质,锆石 U-Pb年龄证据并不能排除阿拉善干旱区作为主要风尘物源的可能。相反,阿拉善干旱区还接受来自其北部中亚造山带和其本身华北克拉通的物质,来自阿拉善干旱区的风尘可能更好地解释黄土高原黄土中的锆石年龄特征。     

华北地区极端温度MOS预报的季节划分

针对极端温度MOS (Model Output Statistics) 预报中的季节划分问题,通过聚类分析方法以华北地区为例进行试验,在此基础上提出一种新的MOS温度预报方程季节分类方式：2月11日—3月20日和11月5日—12月4日定义为早春晚秋类,5月1日—9月30日定义为夏季类,3月21日—4月30日和10月1日—11月4日定义为晚春早秋类,12月5日—2月10日定义为冬季类。由于上述季节分类与传统的季节划分在3—5月和9—11月时间段存在较大差异,因此利用2009年进行试报,就两种时间分类进行对比分析。检验结果表明：利用新分类方法制作的极端温度MOS预报的整体效果好于传统的季节划分得到MOS极端温度预报效果,说明新的分类方式更适合于极端温度MOS预报。     

论伊犁古裂谷

伊犁石炭纪裂谷叠加在中天山造山带之上．后者是在加里东旋回中发育的造山隆起带,除发育下古生界优地槽沉积外,前寒武系变质基底广泛出露,石炭纪沉积以大小不筹的上叠盆地不整合在这样一个基底之上。由于基底性质的差异,西段盆地范围大,沉积厚度大;向东到巴仑台直至托克逊地区,则呈断续延伸的小型断用盆地,厚度薄,而且底砾岩层的厚度大．现有资料说明,石炭纪火山岩主要是玄武岩一玄武安山岩－粗安岩和粗面岩－流纹岩组合．以碱性系列的岩石为主,多为高钾系列,次为钠质;主要为低Ａｌ型,也有高Ａｌ型;轻稀土和不相容元素从低度富集到中等富集（Ｌａ／Ｙｂ为１．８～６．７和５．３～１４．９）,Ｎｂ、Ｔａ从微亏损到强亏损（Ｔｈ／Ｔａ≈１．３～１５）;Ｎｄ（ｔ）值偏低（≈＋２．３～＋４．６）,而ＩＳｒ（～０．７０５８）和２０８Ｐｂ偏高（２０８Ｐｂ／２０４Ｐｂ≈３８．４５２,２０６Ｐｂ／２０４Ｐｂ≈１８．３７８）,反映其岩浆来自弱富集或异常地幔源区．由于裂谷发育程度的不同,岩浆或者直接来出,或者在下地壳环境下受到混染或发生分异,从而导致岩石组合在走向上的差异。     

中亚及中国西部侏罗纪沉积盆地的构造特征

侏罗纪是中亚和中国西部地区沉积盆地主要形成时期,这表现在两个方面:(1)先期存在的盆地在此阶段沉积范围持续扩大;(2)形成了许多新的侏罗纪沉积盆地.本文通过对劳亚大陆南部侏罗纪特提斯北带构造特征、诸盆地早-中侏罗世岩相古地理和构造样式的分析,表明中国西部与中亚地区在侏罗纪时虽然都处于新特提斯北部被动大陆边缘,但由于受帕米尔弧向北推挤的影响,以及昆仑构造带与塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂和阿尔金大型走滑断裂的存在,这两个地区的侏罗纪盆地具有完全不同的构造起因.以塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂为界,西南侧中亚地区的侏罗纪沉积盆地主要是由新特提斯北部大陆边缘的被动伸展形成;东北侧中国西部的侏罗纪沉积盆地则主要发育于区域性挤压构造背景之下,形成的主要机制是重力陷落.此外,沿塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂还存在几个侏罗纪的走滑拉分盆地.中国西部与中亚地区侏罗纪盆地的不同成因特征对盆地的比较研究和寻找侏罗系烃源岩都具有重要意义.     

Comparison of Submicron Particles at a Rural and an Urban Site in the North China Plain during the December 2016 Heavy Pollution Episodes

An extensive field experiment for measurement of physical and chemical properties of aerosols was conducted at an urban site in the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) in Beijing and at a rural site in Gucheng (GC), Hebei Province in December 2016. This paper compares the number size distribution of submicron particle matter (PM1, diameter < 1 μm) between the two sites. The results show that the mean PM1 number concentration at GC was twice that at CAMS, and the mass concentration was three times the amount at CAMS. It is found that the accumulation mode (100–850 nm) particles constituted the largest fraction of PM1 at GC, which was significantly correlated with the local coal combustion, as confirmed by a significant relationship between the accumulation mode and the absorption coefficient of soot particles. The high PM1 concentration at GC prevented the occurrence of new particle formation (NPF) events, while eight such events were observed at CAMS. During the NPF events, the mass fraction of sulfate increased significantly, indicating that sulfate played an important role in NPF. The contribution of regional transport to PM1 mass concentration was approximately 50% at both sites, same as that of the local emission. However, during the red-alert period when emission control took place, the contribution of regional transport was notably higher.     

Comparison of Two Air Pollution Episodes over Northeast China in Winter 2016/17 Using Ground-Based Lidar

This study analyzes and compares aerosol properties and meteorological conditions during two air pollution episodes in 19–22 (E1) and 25–26 (E2) December 2016 in Northeast China. The visibility, particulate matter (PM) mass concentration, and surface meteorological observations were examined, together with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient and volume depolarization ratio that were measured by a ground-based lidar in Shenyang of Liaoning Province, China during December 2016–January 2017. Results suggest that the low PBL height led to poor pollution dilution in E1, while the high PBL accompanied by low visibility in E2 might have been due to cross-regional and vertical air transmission. The PM mass concentration decreased as the PBL height increased in E1 while these two variables were positively correlated in E2. The enhanced winds in E2 diffused the pollutants and contributed largely to the aerosol transport. Strong temperature inversion in E1 resulted in increased PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations, and the winds in E2 favoured the southwesterly transport of aerosols from the North China Plain into the region surrounding Shenyang. The large extinction coefficient was partially attributed to the local pollution under the low PBL with high ground-surface PM mass concentrations in E1, whereas the cross-regional transport of aerosols within a high PBL and the low PM mass concentration near the ground in E2 were associated with severe aerosol extinction at high altitudes. These results may facilitate better understanding of the vertical distribution of aerosol properties during winter pollution events in Northeast China.     

Co-seismic deformation derived from GPS observations during April 20th, 2013 Lushan Earthquake,Sichuan, China

We process the standard 30 s, static GPS data and the 1 s, high-rate GPS （HRGPS） data provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China with GAMIT/GLOBK software package, and obtain the co- seismic displacements of near field and far field, and the epoch-by-epoch time series of HRGPS during Lushan earthquake. GPS data from about 20 sites in Sichuan province, which located between 40 and 450 km from the epicenter, are analyzed so as to study the characteristics of the static displacements and the dynamic crustal defor- mations, with periods ranging from several minutes to over a month. The result shows that： the static displacements caused by Lushan earthquake are limited to several centi- meters; the nearest station SCTQ at 43 km from the epi- center has the largest static displacement of about 2 cm, while the other stations generally have insignificant dis- placements of less than 5 mm. the stations in the east ofSichuan-Yunnan region shifts 5-10 mm toward the southwest, and the stations in the middle-west of Sichuan Basin moves indistinctively 1-2 mm toward the northwest; station SCTQ has the largest kinematic displacement of about 4 and 3 cm peak-to-peak on the north and east component, respectively, and is much greater than the static permanent displacement; for the stations located at a distance greater than 150 km from the epicenter, the kinematic motions are generally insignificant; exception- ally, station SCNC and station SCSN in central Sichuan Basin have significant kinematic motions although they are more than 200 km away from the epicenter.     

新能源锂矿战略与大陆动力学研究——纪念南京大学地球科学与工程学院100周年华诞

锂矿资源已经成为全球战略性金属矿产,实施新能源锂矿战略是国家和民生的重大需求。解析和对比国内外典型LCT伟晶岩型矿床的分布规律、构造背景、组成特征、成因类型以及成矿机制,找出关键科学难题是实施新能源锂矿战略的基础。为明确我国新能源矿产战略构思和突破之关键,构建新能源锂矿战略的思路,强调运用大陆动力学理论、进行多学科的整合和交叉研究以及新技术探索,以查明中国大陆典型伟晶岩型锂矿床的深部状态、锂元素的富集规律、以及锂矿"源-运-聚"的成矿机制,为实现锂矿资源的增储、矿集区的合理布阵、扩大上游开发前景,以及建立我国大型-超大型锂矿基地,提供科学依据。     

Vertical distribution and source identification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in anoxic sediment cores of Chini Lake, Malaysia: Perylene as indicator of land plant-derived hydrocarbons

Four anoxic sediment cores were collected from Chini Lake, Malaysia in order to investigate the variability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and perylene concentrations. The study also determined significant differences of perylene concentrations in different sediment layers. Total PAH concentrations ranged from 248 to 8098 ng g⁻¹ in the samples. Diagnostic PAH ratios such as methylphenanthrenes/phenanthrene (MP/P), phenanthrene/anthracene (P/A) and fluoranthene/(fluoranthene + pyrene) (Fl/(Fl + Py) revealed a dominance of pyrogenic influences and partial petrogenic inputs to the top sediment layers. Perylene concentrations were high in the top layers (<12 cm) and increased with increasing depth. There is a significant positive correlation (r = 0.705, p = 0.01) between perylene concentrations and TOC. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and LSD revealed significant differences (p < 0.05) in TOC-normalized perylene concentrations between the upper (<12 cm) and bottom layers (>12 cm). The average perylene concentrations accounted for 26–50% (0–12 cm) and 50–77% (12–36 cm) of pentacyclic-aromatic hydrocarbon isomers (PAI) present whereas it made up 10–34% (0–12 cm) and 46–66% (12–36 cm) of the total PAH. The average pyrene concentrations decreased with increasing depth and accounted for 62% (0–3 cm), 20–23% (3–12 cm) and 3–1.4% (12–36 cm) of perylene present. The results of hierarchical cluster analysis based on these ratios suggested different input sources for the top and bottom layers. It is concluded that the activity of termites on woody plants produced perylene which is supplied to the lake by run-off from the heavy and frequent rains in this Asian tropical climate. In addition, there was also in situ formation of perylene in the bottom layers due to diagenetic processes.