Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Formation by silicate–fluoride + phosphate melt immiscibility of REE-rich globular segregations within aplite dikes

Aplite dikes intruding the Proterozoic 1.42(±?3) Ga Longs Peak-St. Vrain Silver Plume-type peraluminous granite near Jamestown, Colorado, contain F, P, and rare earth element (REE)-rich globular segregations, with 40–46% REE, 3.7–4.8 wt% P₂O₅, and 5–8 wt% F. A combination of textural features and geochemical data suggest that the aplite and REE-rich globular segregations co-existed as two co-genetic liquids prior to their crystallization, and we propose that they are formed by silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate (+?S?+?CO₂) melt immiscibility following ascent, cooling, and decompression of what was initially a single homogeneous magma that intruded the granite. The REE distribution coefficients between the silica-rich aplites and REE-rich segregations are in good agreement with experimentally determined distribution coefficients for immiscible silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate melts. Although monazite-(Ce) and uraninite U–Th–Pb microprobe ages for the segregations yield 1.420(±?25) and 1.442(±?8) Ga, respectively, thus suggesting a co-genetic relationship with their host granite, ε_Nd1.42Ga values for the granites and related granitic pegmatites range from ??3.3 to ??4.7 (average ??3.9), and differ from the values for both the aplites and REE-rich segregations, which range from ??1.0 to ??2.2 (average ??1.6). Furthermore, the granites and pegmatites have (La/Yb)_N <50 with significant negative Eu anomalies, which contrast with higher (La/Yb)_N >100 and absence of an Eu anomaly in both the aplites and segregations. These data are consistent with the aplite dikes and the REE-rich segregations they contain being co-genetic, but derived from a source different from that of the granite. The higher ε_Nd1.42Ga values for the aplites and REE-rich segregations suggest that the magma from which they separated had a more mafic and deeper, dryer and hotter source in the lower crust or upper mantle compared to the quartzo-feldspathic upper crustal source proposed for the Longs Peak-St. Vrain granite.     

The development and analysis of quasi-linear map projections

Map projections are an essential component of coordinate systems used in applications such as surveying, topographic mapping, and engineering, and care needs to be taken to select ones that minimize distortion for each case. This article explores the selection process for near-linear features on the surface of the Earth and derives limits for the extent of a project that can be projected within specified distortion tolerances. It is then demonstrated that a multifaceted set of projections of the Earth may be used to extend this concept to the mapping of features such as highways and railways that are quasi-linear but do not exactly follow a standard geometrical line (a great circle or a small circle) on the surface of the Earth. A continuous, conformal coordinate system may be derived in such situations, extending to indefinite length and applicable over a swath of several kilometers width, but it cannot be extended to cover situations with extensive variations in height. Instead, the Snake Projection is analyzed, and it is shown that this can be used to develop continuous (non-zonal) projected coordinate systems for major engineering projects extending for hundreds of kilometers and having extensive height ranges. Examples are shown of the application to railway projects.     

Community-based responses to climate hazards: typology and global analysis

Climatic Change - The severity and frequency of climate change hazards are increasing around the world. Because the impacts are most acutely felt in local communities, it is critical to improve...     

LA‐ICP‐MS Pb isotope test of meteorite provenance: A terrestrial origin for Lovina

Lovina, classified as an ungrouped ataxite, is controversial and its identity as a meteorite has been questioned. In this work, we use Pb isotopes on targeted troilite nodules in Lovina as a test of its antiquity and provenance. Although precise ages cannot be obtained, LA‐ICP‐MS offers a rapid, straightforward procedure to establish the source of lead, whether ancient (meteoritic) or modern (terrestrial). For nine pristine, unweathered nodules in Lovina, we find a lead isotopic composition of: ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁸Pb = 0.492 ± 0.003 (2σ, MSWD 0.79; 95%) and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb = 0.852 ± 0.003 (2σ, MSWD 1.09; 95%) with no detectable uranium. All lead compositions of the troilite fall in the range expected for modern environmental and mantle lead and are distinctly different from the primordial Canyon Diablo Troilite (CDT) composition of ancient meteoritic troilite. Although the origin of Lovina remains unknown, we conclude that lead in the Lovina troilite is unsupported by U decay and originated from a terrestrial source.     

Total electron content processing from GPS observations to facilitate ionospheric modeling

With the increasing global distribution of high rate dual-frequency global positioning system (GPS) receivers, the production of a real-time atmospheric constituent definition, total electron content (TEC), has become a beneficial contributor to the modeling applications used in the assessment of GPS position accuracy and the composition of the ionosphere, plasmasphere, and troposphere. Historically, TEC measurements have been obtained through post processing techniques to produce the quality of data necessary for modeling applications with rigorous error estimate requirements. These procedures necessitated the collection of large volumes of data to address the various abnormalities in the computation of TEC associated with the use of greater data quality controls and source selection while real-time modeling environments must rely on autonomous controls and filtration techniques to prevent the production of erroneous model results. In this paper we present methods for processing TEC in real time, which utilize several procedures including the application of an ionospheric model to automatically perform quality control on the TEC output and the computational techniques used to address receiver multipath, faulty receiver observations, cycle-slips, segmented processing, and receiver calibrations. The resulting TEC measurements are provided with rigorous error estimates validated using the vertical TEC from the Jason satellite mission.

Conclusions: Benefits, lessons learned, and future challenges of marine spatial planning

This article summarizes briefly the principal conclusions from papers presented in this special issue on marine spatial planning. It identifies potential economic, ecological, and administrative benefits (and costs) that might be realized from the implementation of MSP. Finally, the article summarize lessons learned and identifies future challenges and directions for MSP, including the development of international guidelines for its implementation.     

A traversing system to measure bottom boundary layer hydraulic properties

This study describes a new convenient and robust system developed to measure benthic boundary layer properties, with emphasis placed on the determination of bed shear stress and roughness height distribution within estuarine systems by using velocity measurements. This system consisted of a remotely operated motorised traverser that allowed a single ADV to collect data between 0 and 1 m above the bed. As a case study, we applied the proposed traversing system to investigate bottom boundary layer (BBL) hydraulic properties within Coombabah Creek, Queensland, Australia. Four commonly-employed techniques: (1) Log-Profile (LP); (2) Reynolds stress (RS); (3) Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE); and (4) Inertial Dissipation (ID) used to estimate bed shear stresses from velocity measurements were compared. Bed shear stresses estimated with these four methods agreed reasonably well; of these, the LP method was found to be most useful and reliable. Additionally, the LP method permits the calculation of roughness height, which the other three methods do not. An average value of bed shear stress of 0.46 N/m², roughness height of 4.3 mm, and drag coefficient of 0.0054 were observed within Coombabah Creek. Results are consistent with that reported for several other silty bed estuaries.     

The Effects of Ocean Acidification on Feeding and Contest Behaviour by the Beadlet Anemone <Emphasis Type="Italic">Actinia equina</Emphasis>

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are causing oceanic pH to decline worldwide, a phenomenon termed ocean acidification. Mounting experimental evidence indicates that near-future levels of CO₂ will affect calcareous invertebrates such as corals, molluscs and gastropods, by reducing their scope for calcification. Despite extensive research into ocean acidification in recent years, the effects on non-calcifying anthozoans, such as sea anemones, remain little explored. In Western Europe, intertidal anemones such as Actinia equina are abundant, lower trophic-level organisms that function as important ecosystem engineers. Changes to behaviours of these simple predators could have implications for intertidal assemblages. This investigation identified the effects of reduced seawater pH on feeding and contest behaviour by A. equina. Video footage was recorded for A. equina feeding at current-day seawater (pH 8.1), and the least (pH 7.9) and most (pH 7.6) severe end-of-century predictions. Footage was also taken of contests over ownership of space between anemones exposed to reduced pH and those that were not. No statistically significant differences were identified in feeding duration or various aspects of contest behaviour including initiating, winning, inflating acrorhagi, inflicting acrorhagial peels and contest duration. Multivariate analyses showed no effect of pH on a combination of these variables. This provides contrast with other studies where anemones with symbiotic algae thrive in areas of natural increased acidity. Thus, novel experiments using intraspecific contests and resource-holding potential may prove an effective approach to understand sub-lethal consequences of ocean acidification for A. equina, other sea anemones and more broadly for marine ecosystems.