A high resolution forecast model of storm surge inundation

In order to forecast storm surge inundation, a two-dimensional model is established. In the model, an alternating computation sequence method is used to solve the governing equations, and the dry and wet method is introduced to treat the moving boundary. This model is easy to use. It has a friendly input interface and Arcview GIS is used as the output interface. The model is applied to the Shantou area to simulate the storm surge elevations and inundations caused by Typhoons 6903 ane 0104 using the same relevant parameters. The calculated results agree well with the observations.     

Canonical Modelling of Relative Spacecraft Motion Via Epicyclic Orbital Elements

This paper presents a Hamiltonian approach to modelling spacecraft motion relative to a circular reference orbit based on a derivation of canonical coordinates for the relative state-space dynamics. The Hamiltonian formulation facilitates the modelling of high-order terms and orbital perturbations within the context of the Clohessy–Wiltshire solution. First, the Hamiltonian is partitioned into a linear term and a high-order term. The Hamilton–Jacobi equations are solved for the linear part by separation, and new constants for the relative motions are obtained, called epicyclic elements. The influence of higher order terms and perturbations, such as Earth’s oblateness, are incorporated into the analysis by a variation of parameters procedure. As an example, closed-form solutions for J₂-invariant orbits are obtained.     

Impact of copper smelting on lakes in the southern Ural Mountains,Russia, inferred from chironomids

Karabash (52°2 N, 60°10 E) is a copper smelting town in the southern Ural Mountains of Russia. The town is affected by sulphur dioxide emissions and deposition of metal-rich particulates from the smelter, acid drainage from old mine workings, and leachates from disused waste dumps and tailings dams. The close proximity of houses to these sources of pollution is of concern to human health and has devastated terrestrial vegetation in the environs. The environmental impact of the smelter on lakes in the area has been assessed using chironomids. Short sediment cores were taken from 16 lakes within a 50 km radius of the smelter and the composition of the chironomid fauna from the bottom of each core, representing conditions prior to the commissioning of the smelter in 1910, was compared with the present chironomid fauna in the surface sediments. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that changes in the chironomid fauna of most lakes were driven by trophic change, independent of the industrial activity. Lakes and ponds adjacent to the smelter and waste dumps, which directly receive contaminated waters were devoid of macro- and mesofauna and flora, but there is no evidence that other lakes have been severely impacted by smelter emissions. Local geology ensures that the lakes are well-buffered to the effects of acid deposition which will limit the bioavailability of metals in the water column and sediment.     

Limnological effects of growth and cessation of agricultural land use in Ladoga Karelia: sedimentary pollen and diatom analyses

Reference conditions and changes in limnological conditions during the 20th century have been inferred in a palaeolimnological study of sediments from six lakes of the District of Sortavala, Karelian Republic, Russia. The area is former Finnish territory, which was in intensive use for arable field cultivation until the World War II, when the area was ceded to the Soviet Union. After the war, farming was resumed by cattle sovkhozes, and the fields were mainly used as pasture without regular ploughing. We have studied the history of eutrophication and recovery in some lakes related with the changes of agricultural intensity. The trophic level of the lakes was studied by sedimentary diatom assemblages, including reconstructions of total phosphorus levels in the lakes based on a weighted averaging transfer function. Pollen analyses were used to assess the changes in the land use near the lakes. Valuable background data on all the lakes used in the present study are provided by a doctoral thesis done on their limnology from the 1920s. According to our results, the four lakes situated on the clayey lowlands near the coast of Lake Ladoga were eutrophicating during the first half of the 20th century, and in two of them, a rapid recovery is evident. In two lakes situated in hilly landscape with limited agricultural activities, only minor changes are recorded in the diatom profiles.     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: VII. Carbonate isotope geochemistry as a record of riverine runoff

Evaporation dominates the removal of water from Lake Tanganyika, and therefore the oxygen isotope composition of lake water has become very positive in comparison to the waters entering the lake. The surface water in Lake Tanganyika has remained relatively unchanged over the last 30 years with a seasonal range of +3.2 to +3.5 VSMOW. Water from small rivers entering the lake seems to have a ¹⁸O value between –3.5 and –4.0, based on scattered measurements. The two largest catchments emptying into the lake deliver water that has a ¹⁸O value between these two extremes. This large contrast is the basis of a model presented here that attempts to reconstruct the history of runoff intensity based on the ¹⁸O of carbonate shells from Lake Tanganyika cores. In order to use biogenic carbonates to monitor changes in the ¹⁸O of mixing-zone water, however, the oxygen isotope fractionation between water and shell carbonate must be well understood. The relatively invariant environmental conditions of the lake allow us to constrain the fractionation of both oxygen and carbon isotope ratios. Although molluskan aragonitic shell ¹⁸O values are in agreement with published mineral-water fractionations, ostracode calcite is 1.2 more positive than that of inorganic calcite precipitated under similar conditions. Ostracode shell ¹⁸O data from two cores from central Lake Tanganyika suggest that runoff decreased in the first half of this millennium and has increased in the last century. This conclusion is poorly constrained, however, and much more work needs to be done on stable isotope variation in both the waters and carbonates of Lake Tanganyika. We also compared the ¹³C of shells against predicted values based solely on the ¹³C of lake water dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The ostracode Mecynocypria opaca is the only ostracode or mollusk that falls within the predicted range. This suggests that M. opaca has potential for reconstructing the carbon isotope ratio of DIC in Lake Tanganyika, and may be a useful tool in the study of the history of the lakes productivity and carbon cycle.     

A simple method to vertically stabilize line-suspended,lightweight percussion coring equipment

An inexpensive improvement to lightweight percussion coring systems is presented. Non-stretching lines are often required to facilitate core sampling in hundreds of metres of water, unfortunately such lines are usually negatively buoyant, which creates difficulties in keeping lightweight core assemblies upright while lowering through the water column. The addition of urethane closed-cell foam to the core head creates buoyancy that vertically stabilizes the coring assembly within the water column and prevents the core barrel from contacting the sediment-water interface non-vertically.     

Modeling the history of Lake of the Woods since 11,000 cal yr B.P. using GIS

Because of differential isostatic rebound, many lakes in Canada have continued to change their extent and depth since retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Using GIS techniques, the changing configuration and bathymetry of Lake of the Woods in Ontario, Manitoba, and Minnesota were reconstructed for 12 points in time, beginning at 11,000 cal yr B.P. (9.6 ¹⁴C ka B.P.), and were also projected 500 years into the future, based on the assumption that Lake of the Woods continued to have a positive hydrological budget throughout the Holocene. This modeling was done by first compiling a bathymetric database and merging that with subaerial data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). This DEM file was then adjusted by: (1) isobase data derived from Lake Agassiz beaches prior to 9000 cal yr B.P. (8.1 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) and (2) modeled isostatic rebound trend analysis after 9000 cal yr B.P. Just after the end of the Lake Agassiz phase of Lake of the Woods, only the northernmost part of the basin contained water. Differential rebound has resulted in increasing water depth. In the first 3000 years of independence from Lake Agassiz, the lake transgressed >50 km to the south, expanding its area from 858 to 2857 km², and more than doubling in volume. Continued differential rebound after 6000 cal yr B.P. (5.2 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) has further expanded the lake, although today it is deepening by only a few cm per century at the southern end. In addition, climate change in the Holocene probably played a role in lake level fluctuations. Based on our calculation of a modern hydrological budget for Lake of the Woods, reducing runoff and precipitation by 65% and increasing evaporation from the lake by 40% would end overflow and cause the level of the lake to fall below the outlets at Kenora. Because this climate change is comparable to that recorded during the mid-Holocene warming across the region, it is likely that the area covered by the lake at this time would have been less than that determined from differential isostatic rebound alone.     

Freshwater Ostracodes in Quaternary Permafrost Deposits in the Siberian Arctic

Ostracode analysis was carried out on samples from ice-rich permafrost deposits obtained on the Bykovsky Peninsula (Laptev Sea). A composite profile was investigated that covers most of a 38-m thick permafrost sequence and corresponds to the last ca. 60 kyr of the Late Quaternary. The ostracode assemblages are similar to those known from European Quaternary lake deposits during cold stages. The ostracode habitats were small, shallow, cold, oligotrophic pools located in low centred ice wedge polygons or in small thermokarst depressions. In total, 15 taxa, representing 7 genera, were identified from 65 samples. The studied section is subdivided into six ostracode zones that correspond to Late Quaternary climatic and environmental stadial-interstadial variations established by other paleoenvironmental proxies: (1) cold and dry Zyrianian stadial (58–53 kyr BP); (2) warm and dry Karginian interstadial (48–34 kyr BP); (3) transition from the Karginian interstadial to the cold and dry Sartanian stadial (34–21 kyr BP); (4) transition from the Sartanian stadial to the warm and dry Late Pleistocene period, the Allerød (21–14 kyr BP); (5) transition from the Allerød to the warm and wet Middle Holocene (14–7 kyr BP); and (6) cool and wet Late Holocene (ca. 3 kyr BP). The abundance and diversity of the ostracodes will be used as an additional bioindicator for paleoenvironmental reconstructions of the Siberian Arctic.     

Relationships between Holocene sea-level variations,trophic development,and climatic change in Negra Lagoon,Southern Uruguay

Paleolimnological data are presented on trophic development, climatic change and sea level variations in Negra Lagoon, a 142 km² coastal lagoon in southern Uruguay. Using a sediment core that extended to the early Holocene, analyses of organic matter, carbonate, diatoms and opal phytoliths allowed us to track changes in trophic state and paleosalinity levels, which were closely related to Holocene sea level variation, temperature and humidity. Diatom Association Zones (DAZ) corresponding to transgressive events were dominated by marine/brackish taxa and relatively low organic matter values, while those DAZ corresponding to regressive events showed increases in brackish/freshwater diatoms and organic matter. Opal Phytoliths Association Zones (OPAZ) also were identified, temperature and humidity indices were calculated, and climatic trends were inferred. During the middle Holocene (i.e., ~5000–4000 yr BP), cool–dry climatic conditions were established. After ~4000 yr BP, a transition from cool to warm–humid conditions was observed, but fully warm humid conditions established only after ~1700 yr BP. Such climatic amelioration led to increases in trophic state.     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: V. Palynological evidence for deforestation and increased erosion

Pollen spectra from seven short cores taken from deltaic sites in the central and northern parts of Lake Tanganyika provide information about vegetation changes around the lake during the last 5000 years. Pollen analysis was undertaken to understand the history and timing of catchment deforestation and its causal linkage to excess sedimentation and ecosystem change in Lake Tanganyika. The spectra are dominated by grass pollen at all levels in every core. Grass pollen percentage values range between 40 and 80%. Low values of arboreal pollen taxa (1–20%) were documented from most cores except core LT-98-2M. Core LT-98-2M represents the longest duration vegetation record of this study (close to 5000 years BP), and records the onset of increasingly arid conditions in the Late Holocene, especially after 500 A.D., with the probable replacement of forest by open grassland in the Mahale Mountains region. The pollen/spore content for other cores showed a consistent trend of a decrease in grass pollen and an increase in pteridophyte and forest indicator pollen taxa during the last few centuries, contemporaneous with other indications of increased watershed disturbance from forest clearing (especially isotopes and lake faunal change). The timing or strength of this trend is not tied to specific levels of watershed disturbance. However, increasing fern spore abundance does occur progressively later towards the south, where modern human population densities are lower. Although increasing fern spore abundance is consistent with a land-clearing hypothesis, the rising arboreal pollen percentages are seemingly counterintuitive. One possible explanation is that increasing arboreal pollen proportions reflects the recycling of abundant pollen of this type from rapidly eroding soils. Another likely explanation for this finding is that land clearing involved the replacement of miombo woodland, with its mixture of trees producing little pollen and understory grasses producing large amounts of pollen, by the present day cassava, banana, and legume agricultural systems, all of which are poor pollen producers. This shift in catchment vegetation would increase the relative contribution of Afromontane pollen transported long distances from the surrounding highland regions. This hypothesis is consistent with both the lack of correlation of palynological history with specific watershed deforestation attributes, as well as the broader historical record of human habitation in the Lake Tanganyika region. This study also highlights the need for both modern pollen transect data from the region and comparative cores from low elevation swamps or ponds (wetlands) in the region with smaller catchment areas.