Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

XXIst International Congress of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

The XXIst International Congress of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing was held at the Beijing International Convention Centre, China, from 3rd to 11th July 2008. Reports are given on the Congress as a whole, including the General Assembly, some Technical Commission activities and the Congress Exhibition. Papers from the Congress are published in Volume XXXVII of the International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences.     

The accuracy of a river bed moulding/casting system and the effectiveness of a low-cost digital camera for recording river bed fabric

Digital photogrammetry has been used to develop and test an artificial river bed moulding and casting system, which allows the pebbles within a coarse-grain river bed to be recreated for hydraulic research in a laboratory flow channel or flume. Imagery of both the original streambed and the cast facsimile was acquired using a non-metric Kodak DCS460 digital camera and digital elevation models and orthophotographs were derived and compared to assess the accuracy of the moulding and casting system. These comparative tests proved to be critical in modifying and developing the system.
Additional imagery was obtained in the field using a non-metric Olympus C3030 'compact' digital camera to assess whether far cheaper camera technology could deliver data appropriate for such comparative examinations. Internal calibration parameter sets and data that were generated were compared with data obtained by the non-metric Kodak DCS460. These tests demonstrate that digital sensors built around high-quality 35 mm professional camera bodies and lenses are required for comparative examinations and for similar system development.     

New records of rare ammonite species from the Inferior Oolite Formation (Middle Jurassic,Aalenian and Lower Bajocian) of Dorset

Rare ammonite species are reported from the Inferior Oolite Formation of Dorset. In the Aalenian the ammonite Shahrudites is described from the Scissum Zone for the first time and Malladaites is recorded from the Murchisonae Zone. Tmetoceras regleyi occurs in the Scissum and Murchisonae zones and Tmetoceras henriquesae is described from the Concavum Zone. In the Lower Bajocian, specimens of Zurcheria are presented from the Discites Zone. A revised zonal scheme is used for the Aalenian Stage and two new biohorizons are introduced. The Leioceras subglabrum biohorizon is erected in the Opalinum Subzone and Leioceras evolutum in the Bifidatum Subzone.     

Yield surfaces and flow rules for deformation of granular materials with a volume constraint

This paper presents a procedure for developing yield functions with consistent flow rules for granular materials from a family of two parameter dissipation functions in combination with appropriate kinematic constraints. Through a mathematical procedure described in the paper, a general formulation is developed that can, by adjusting the values of the two parameters, reproduce a wide range of yield surfaces, including the Drucker–Prager, Matsuoka–Nakai, and Lade–Duncan. Specifically, an analytical expression for the yield function is obtained in terms of a parameter that is a selected solution to a high order polynomial. The roots of this polynomial can always be found using the eigenvalues of the companion matrix and instructions on how to select the appropriate root are given in the paper. Two ways of incorporating anisotropy into the procedure are explored and the role within it of the recent history of deformation is examined.     

Integration of P- and SH-wave high-resolution seismic reflection and micro-gravity techniques to improve interpretation of shallow subsurface structure: New Madrid seismic zone

Shallow high-resolution seismic reflection surveys have traditionally been restricted to either compressional (P) or horizontally polarized shear (SH) waves in order to produce 2-D images of subsurface structure. The northernmost Mississippi embayment and coincident New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) provide an ideal laboratory to study the experimental use of integrating P- and SH-wave seismic profiles, integrated, where practicable, with micro-gravity data. In this area, the relation between “deeper” deformation of Paleozoic bedrock associated with the formation of the Reelfoot rift and NMSZ seismicity and “shallower” deformation of overlying sediments has remained elusive, but could be revealed using integrated P- and SH-wave reflection. Surface expressions of deformation are almost non-existent in this region, which makes seismic reflection surveying the only means of detecting structures that are possibly pertinent to seismic hazard assessment. Since P- and SH-waves respond differently to the rock and fluid properties and travel at dissimilar speeds, the resulting seismic profiles provide complementary views of the subsurface based on different levels of resolution and imaging capability. P-wave profiles acquired in southwestern Illinois and western Kentucky (USA) detect faulting of deep, Paleozoic bedrock and Cretaceous reflectors while coincident SH-wave surveys show that this deformation propagates higher into overlying Tertiary and Quaternary strata. Forward modeling of micro-gravity data acquired along one of the seismic profiles further supports an interpretation of faulting of bedrock and Cretaceous strata. The integration of the two seismic and the micro-gravity methods therefore increases the scope for investigating the relation between the older and younger deformation in an area of critical seismic hazard.     

Decadal and seasonal development of embryo dunes on an accreting macrotidal beach: North Lincolnshire,UK

Embryo dunes are often ephemeral, but can develop to become established coastal foredunes. In 2001 a patch of embryo dunes 13.11 m² appeared on a beach in north Lincolnshire, UK and had expanded to over 3600 m² by 2011. The rate of expansion is linked to storm occurrence, where expansion is slowed during years with a higher incidence of storm surges. From July 2009–October 2010 seasonal changes in dune field topography were determined using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data. Vegetation is important in the development of embryo dunes, but can cause errors in TLS data. Tests evaluating the impact of vegetation on the TLS data suggest the minimum elevation value from the TLS point cloud within a 0.05 m grid cell gives a good approximation of the ground surface. Digital elevation models (DEMs) of the dunes constructed using filtered data showed the embryo dunes underwent a classic seasonal cycle of erosion during the winter and accretion during the summer. For example from October 2009 to April 2010 over 375 m³ of sediment was eroded from the dunes whereas during spring and summer 2010 the dune field gained over 600 m³ of sand. The overall magnitude of change in dune height and volume from season to season exceeded the errors associated with the construction of the DEM from the TLS data and the vegetation filtering process, which suggests TLS can be useful for documenting topographic change in vegetated dunes. After 10 years, the patch of embryo dunes is still expanding but has not yet merged with more established foredunes to landward. Aeolian process measurements indicate that, at present, the embryo dunes do not prevent sand from reaching the foredunes, however the rate of foredune progradation has slowed concurrently with the expansion of the embryo dune field. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Steady state behaviour of the black ven mudslide: The application of archival analytical photogrammetry to studies of landform change

The concept of dynamic equilibrium has provided geomorphologists with a challenging paradigm for studying landform evolution but quantitative evidence for its existence has proved illusive, particularly for complex geomorphological systems. The authors believe that the principle has now been verified through the application of the ‘archival photogrammetric technique’ to a sequence of historical photographs spanning 50 years of process at the Black Ven mudslide complex in Dorset, U.K. The principles and limitations of the archival photogrammetric technique are described. The method is applied to oblique and vertical aerial photographs of Black Ven at five epochs, commencing in 1946, continuing at approximately 10 year intervals until 1988. The technique is used to generate plans/contours/sections and a dense and accurate digital elevation model (DEM) of the whole site at each epoch. This is used to generate ‘DEMs of difference’ and a ‘distribution of slope angle’ which suggest that the mudslides are in equilibrium despite the removal of 200 000 m³ of sediment between 1958 and 1988. Extrapolation of the slope distribution through time suggests that the frequency of an episodic landform change model at Black Ven may be approximately 60 years.