The measurement and modelling of rill erosion at angle of repose slopes in mine spoil

The process of rill erosion causes significant amounts of sediment to be moved in both undisturbed and disturbed environments and can be a significant issue for agriculture as well as mining lands. Rills also often develop very quickly (from a single rainfall event to a season) and can develop into gullies if sufficient runoff is available to continue their development. This study examines the ability of a terrestrial laser scanner to quantify rills that have developed on fresh and homogeneous mine spoil on an angle of repose slope. It also examines the ability of the SIBERIA erosion model to simulate the rill's spatial and temporal behaviour. While there has been considerable work done examining rill erosion on rehabilitated mine sites and agricultural fields, little work has been done to examine rill development at angle of repose sites. Results show that while the overall hillslope morphology was captured by the laser scanner, with the morphology of the rills being broadly captured, the characteristics of the rills were not well defined. The digital elevation model created by the laser scanner failed to capture the rill thalwegs and tops of the banks, therefore delineating a series of ill defined longitudinal downslope depressions. These results demonstrate that an even greater density of points is needed to capture sufficient rill morphology. Nevertheless, SIBERIA simulations of the hillslope demonstrated that the model was able to capture rill behaviour in both space and time when correct model parameters were used. This result provides confidence in the SIBERIA model and its parameterization. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters and the importance of the calibration process. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Rainfall modelling using Poisson-cluster processes: a review of developments

 Over a decade ago, point rainfall models based upon Poisson cluster processes were developed by Rodriguez-Iturbe, Cox and Isham. Two types of point process models were envisaged: the Bartlett–Lewis and the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulse models. Recent developments are reviewed here, including a number of empirical studies. The parameter estimation problem is addressed for both types of Poisson-cluster based models. The multiplicity of parameters which can be obtained for a given data set using the method of moments is illustrated and two approaches to finding a best set of parameters are presented. The use of a proper fitting method will allow for the problems encountered in regionalisation to be adequately dealt with. Applications of the point process model to flood design are discussed and finally, results for a model with dependent cell depth and duration are given. Taking into account the spatial features of rainfall, three multi-site models are presented and compared. They are all governed by a master Poisson process of storm origins and have a number of cell origins associated with each storm origin. The three models differ as to the type of dependence structure between the cell characteristics at different sites. Analytical properties are presented for these models and their ability to represent the spatial structure of a set of raingauge data in the South-West of England is examined. Continuous spatial-temporal models are currently being developed and results are presented for a model in which storm centres arrive in a homogeneous Poisson process in space-time, and cells follow them in time according to a Bartlett–Lewis type cluster. Examples of simulations using this model are shown and compared with radar data from the South-West of England. The paper concludes with a summary of the main areas in which further research is required.     

Application of numerical modelling in the design of a full‐scale heated Tunnel Sealing Experiment

The Tunnel Sealing Experiment (TSX) was a full‐scale in situ demonstration of technology for constructing nearly water tight‐seals in excavations through crystalline rock deep below the surface of the earth. The experiment has been carried out at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's (AECL's) Underground Research Laboratory near Lac du Bonnet, Canada, in support of international programs for geologic disposal of radioactive waste. The TSX, with partners from Canada, Japan, France and the United States, was carried under conditions of high pressure (up to 4 MPa) and elevated temperature (up to 85°C). Comparing numerical model predictions with eight years of data collected from approximately 900 sensors was an important component of this experiment. Model of Transport In Fractured/porous Media (MOTIF), a finite element computer program developed by AECL for simulating fully coupled or uncoupled fluid flow, solute transport and heat transport, was used to model both the ambient temperature and heated phases of the TSX. The plan to heat the water in the TSX to 85°C was developed using model predictions and a comparison of simulated results with measurements during heating of the water in the TSX to about 50°C. The three‐dimensional MOTIF simulations were conducted in parallel with axisymmetric modelling using Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua (FLAC), which computed the heat loss from pipes that carried the heated water through the rock to and from the experiment. The numerical model was initially used to develop a plan for operation of the experiment heaters, and then subsequently used to predict temperatures and hydraulic heads in the TSX bulkhead seals and surrounding rock. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The spatial and temporal distribution of marine geophysical surveys

We examine how bathymetric mapping coverage varies with distance from the coastline, here a proxy for the effort involved in collecting the data. Distances to the nearest coastline were evaluated on a 1′ × 1′ global grid. We evaluate the density of marine survey track lines, which falls off with increasing distance from the coastline and drops off precipitously for the most remote regions. Bathymetric coverage shows a marked asymmetry between the southern and northern hemispheres, the latter having a factor of 2–4 denser coverage. We find a rapid decrease in data acquisition for previously unexplored regions beginning in 1973–1975. This rate change may reflect a transition from serendipitous exploration to more targeted investigations as the plate tectonics hypothesis became accepted, but it could also reflect the 1970s oil shocks. Coverage of the seafloor varies logarithmically with mapping resolution. At 0.5° resolution, only ∼60% of the seafloor has been mapped; the 50% mark was reached in 1979 and coverage of unexplored seafloor has since been less rapid. For comparison, at 1′ resolution less than 10% of the seafloor has been mapped. Given rising fuel costs we predict the most remote areas will see a decline in future surveys. Better coordination of exploration among agencies and nations could mitigate this concern and improve global coverage, as could future altimetric mapping dedicated to bathymetric prediction.     

Decadal and seasonal development of embryo dunes on an accreting macrotidal beach: North Lincolnshire,UK

Embryo dunes are often ephemeral, but can develop to become established coastal foredunes. In 2001 a patch of embryo dunes 13.11 m² appeared on a beach in north Lincolnshire, UK and had expanded to over 3600 m² by 2011. The rate of expansion is linked to storm occurrence, where expansion is slowed during years with a higher incidence of storm surges. From July 2009–October 2010 seasonal changes in dune field topography were determined using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data. Vegetation is important in the development of embryo dunes, but can cause errors in TLS data. Tests evaluating the impact of vegetation on the TLS data suggest the minimum elevation value from the TLS point cloud within a 0.05 m grid cell gives a good approximation of the ground surface. Digital elevation models (DEMs) of the dunes constructed using filtered data showed the embryo dunes underwent a classic seasonal cycle of erosion during the winter and accretion during the summer. For example from October 2009 to April 2010 over 375 m³ of sediment was eroded from the dunes whereas during spring and summer 2010 the dune field gained over 600 m³ of sand. The overall magnitude of change in dune height and volume from season to season exceeded the errors associated with the construction of the DEM from the TLS data and the vegetation filtering process, which suggests TLS can be useful for documenting topographic change in vegetated dunes. After 10 years, the patch of embryo dunes is still expanding but has not yet merged with more established foredunes to landward. Aeolian process measurements indicate that, at present, the embryo dunes do not prevent sand from reaching the foredunes, however the rate of foredune progradation has slowed concurrently with the expansion of the embryo dune field. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two new stephanoceratid ammonites from the Aalenian-Lower Bajocian (Middle Jurassic,Dorset, UK) and their phylogenetic significance

Two new species of stephanoceratid ammonites are erected: Stephanoceras (Riccardiceras) eoeteosum sp. nov. and Stephanoceras (Skirroceras) englandi sp. nov. from the Inferior Oolite Formation of Dorset, UK. They represent the first and last members of a chronocline of serpenticonic morphospecies. The stratigraphical position of Rhytostephanus rhytus Buckman is reviewed, necessitating a change in the faunal horizon scheme. The term mesoconch is proposed for use in describing microsomic macroconchs, the function of which is considered. Names applied to morphospecies and their uses are reviewed. The role of conservation is discussed in respect of preserving Dorset Inferior Oolite exposures.     

Heat flow and the geothermal potential of Egypt

Preliminary heat flow values ranging from 42 to 175 mW m^–2 have been estimated for Egypt from numerous geothermal gradient determinations with a reasonably good geographical distribution, and a limited number of thermal conductivity determinations. For northern Egypt and the Gulf of Suez, gradients were calculated from oil well bottom hole temperature data; east of the Nile, and at three sites west of the Nile, gradients were calculated from detailed temperature logs in shallow boreholes. With one exception, the heat flow west of the Nile and in northern Egypt is estimated to be low, 40–45 mW m^–2, typical of a Precambrian Platform province. A local high, 175 mW m^–2, is probably due to local oxidational heating or water movement associated with a phosphate mineralized zone. East of the Nile, however, including the Gulf of Suez, elevated heat flow is indicated at several sites, with a high of 175 mW m^–2 measured in a Precambrian granitic gneiss approximately 2 km from the Red Sea coast. These data indicate potential for development of geothermal resources along the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez coasts. Water geochemistry data confirm the high heat flow, but do not indicate any deep hot aquifers. Microearthquake monitoring and gravity data indicate that the high heat flow is associated with the opening of the Red Sea.