Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880–2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Distant‐earthquake simulations considering source rupture propagation: refining the seismic hazard of Hong Kong

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses should be complementary, in the sense that probabilistic analysis may be used to identify the controlling deterministic design‐level earthquake events, and more sophisticated models of these events may then be developed to account for uncertainties that could not have been included directly in the probabilistic analysis. De‐aggregation of the tentative uniform hazard spectra (UHS) in Hong Kong resulting from a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) indicates that strong and major distant earthquakes, rather than moderate local earthquakes, make the largest contribution to the seismic hazard level within the natural‐period range longer than 0.3 s. Ground‐motion simulations of controlling events located 90 and 340 km from Hong Kong, taking into account uncertainties in the rupture process, reveal that the tentative UHS resulting from the PSHA may have significantly underestimated the mid‐to‐long period components. This is attributed mainly to the adoption of double‐corner source‐spectrum models in the attenuation relationships employed in the PSHA. The results of the simulations indicate clearly that rupture directivity and rupture velocity can significantly affect the characteristics of ground motions, even from such distant earthquakes. The rupture‐directivity effects have profound implications in elongating the second corner period where the constant velocity intersects the constant displacement, thus increasing the associated displacement demand. However, demands for acceleration and velocity are found to be not sensitive to the presence of the directivity pulses. Ground pulses resulting from forward rupture directivity of distant earthquakes have longer predominant periods than the usual near‐fault directivity pulses. These long‐period pulses may have profound implications for metropolises, such as Hong Kong and others in Southeast Asia, having large concentration of high‐rise buildings. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Submillimetre continuum images of the NGC 2024 star-forming ridge

We present 450- and 800-μm images, made with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope, of the NGC 2024 molecular ridge. The seven previously known compact cores, FIR1–7, have been detected, and FIR5 has been resolved into a compact object and an associated extended source to the east. The estimated masses of the dense cores vary between 1.6 and 5.1 M⊙ per 14-arcsec beam, assuming a dust temperature of 30 K and a dust opacity of κ_800 μm = 0.002 m² kg⁻¹. A spectral index map made from the 450- and 800-μm images shows spatial variations, with the spectral index, α ( F _ν ∝ ν^α), being systematically lower towards the dense cores. We interpret this as evidence for a lower value of the frequency dependence of the dust opacity, β, towards the denser cores relative to the surrounding molecular material. This may indicate that grain growth is occurring in the cores, prior to planetesimal formation. By comparing the high-resolution 450-μm image with interferometer maps of the integrated CS(2–1) emission, the previously reported discrepancy between dust continuum emission and molecular line emission is found to be very localized. Depletion and temperature variations are discussed as possible explanations.     

Assessment of Dem Quality for Characterizing Surface Roughness Using Close Range Digital Photogrammetry

This paper presents a procedure for assessing the quality of a digital elevation model (DEM) which has been applied to the output of a normalized cross correlation based stereomatching algorithm. Using semimetric photography of natural gravel river bed surfaces acquired in the field, digital photogrammetry was used to extract DEMs automatically for use in characterizing surface roughness properties. The procedure for assessing DEM quality involves examination of (i) ortho-images, to provide a qualitative check on stereomatching performance; (ii) DEM collection statistics which quantify the percentage of correctly matched pixels as a function of those interpolated; and (iii) height differences between check points, measured using independent field survey, and corresponding DEM points. The concepts of precision, accuracy and reliability are defined in the context of DEM quality assessment and methods are outlined which can be used to assess these variables. The assessment is conducted for two adjacent stereopairs with similar characteristics, considering the effects of both DEM collection parameters and different lens models upon DEM quality. Results show that digital photogrammetry, in conjunction with independent field survey, can be used successfully for extracting high resolution, small scale DEMs from natural gravel surfaces. Components (i) and (ii) of the quality assessment suggest the need to optimize DEM collection parameters, although the effects of not using a properly specified lens model were minimal at this scale. Method (iii) showed that increasing stereomatching success does not necessarily lead to more accurately estimated DEM points. However, the use of method (iii) remained difficult because of the scale of the photogrammetric application being used; check point positioning within the photogrammetric co-ordinate system was only possible to ±10 mm which, for a gravel bed surface, was associated with elevation variance of a similar, sometimes greater, magnitude. The next stage of this research will require the use of higher quality check data, possibly from laser profiling.     

Through-Water Close Range Digital Photogrammetry in Flume and Field Environments

Measurement of the structure of gravel-bed river surfaces is crucial for understanding both bed roughness and the sediment entrainment process. This paper describes the use of close range digital photogrammetry to measure and monitor change occurring in submerged river gravel-beds in both flume and field environments. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) were obtained and two-media (through air and water) techniques were used to correct for the e.ects of refraction at the air/water interface. Although suitable refractive models have been developed, the use of proprietary software to generate DEMs automatically introduces the problem of how to re-establish collinearity. A simple refraction correction algorithm based upon analytical geometry was developed and is described. This algorithm was designed for use after initial DEM acquisition and allows any photogrammetric software package to be used for data acquisition. Application of this algorithm led to improvements in DEM accuracy by reducing the systematic, depth-dependent bias caused by refraction
Research carried out in a flume environment allowed the algorithm to be tested by measuring a flooded and drained bed surface. Non-systematic differences between the "dry" and "wet" DEMs arose from reductions in stereomatching success in the two-media case. This effect was thought to be due to light attenuation and the introduction of residual parallax. Results suggest that close range digital photogrammetry can be used to extract high quality DEMs of submerged topography in both flume and field fluvial environments, which represents a particularly exciting development for fluvial geomorphologists     

ANALYTICAL PHOTOGRAMMETRY APPLIED TO NEPALESE SLOPE MORPHOLOGY

Site procedures and methods of analytical close range photogrammetry are described. The derived data are discussed in relation to the geomorphology of unstable hill slopes in Nepal. Acquisition of low cost multispectral aerial photography for a study of overall slope erosion is also described.     

Heat-flow — heat-generation studies in Norway

Fifteen heat-flow determinations based on data from 34 drill holes throughout central and southern Norway are presented. Five combined heat-flow — heat-generation measurements from homogeneous Precambrian and Permian crystalline rocks from southern Norway confirm a linear relation between heat flow and heat generation of the form Q = Q₀ + bA, where Q is surface heat flow (1hfu = 10⁻⁶ cal cm⁻² sec⁻¹), A is surface heat generation (1hgu = 10⁻¹³ cal cm⁻³ sec⁻¹), and b and Q₀ are constants. The slope of the line (b = 8.4 km) is in good agreement with results obtained from other stable continental areas, but the intercept (Q₀ = 0.48 hfu) is considerably lower, suggesting the presence of a zone of low heat flow in southern Norway.Nine heat-flow determinations are from the Paleozoic, Caledonian orogenic belt. These values range from 1.09 to 1.29 hfu with an average value of 1.18, are consistent with model data from other Paleozoic orogenic areas including the Appalachian system of North America, and do not appear to reflect the low heat flow observed in southern Norway.     

Three Dimensional Computer Graphic Models by Analytical Photogrammetry

This paper indicates the advantages afforded when an analytical plotter is interfaced with a three dimensional CAD system. Problems associated with combining various data sources (ground survey, aerial and close range photography) of differing quality will be discussed, together with compromises required to idealize the geometry of the real world enforced by a CAD system.
The paper is illustrated by some of the commercial projects undertaken by the Engineering Photogrammetry Unit at City University. Applications of particular financial significance include modelling of petro-chemical plant for different purposes and to various levels of detail and accuracy     

Measuring Flume Surfaces for Hydraulics Research Using a Kodak DCS460

A critical problem in hydraulics research is accurate measurement of fluvially worked sediments, both in the field and in scaled representations of field situations in laboratory flumes. Such measurement must provide information on individual grain characteristics, and their organisation into structures referred to as bedforms. Existing measurement approaches are based upon mechanical or laser profiling devices, which are both expensive and take considerable time to acquire data, particularly where information is required at very high densities. This paper demonstrates how conventional automated terrain model extraction software, combined with image acquisition using a Kodak DCS460 digital camera, has been effective in generating digital elevation models of complex bed morphology. This has reduced time spent collecting data in the flume and has allowed data collection at much higher spatial and temporal densities. Application of the method is illustrated by research carried out at Hydraulics Research Wallingford. Issues discussed include configuration of photographs and control coordinates; appropriate camera calibration methods; stability of inner orientation of the Kodak DCS460; and accuracies obtained. Comparisons with independent check data reveal that accuracies of ±2.5mm have been achieved using a camera-to-object distance of 4.2 m.