南昌市降水概率预报方法研究(一)

主要介绍了降水概率预报的事件概率回归方法,1997年试用表明这种方法有一定的参考价值。     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A sub-surface eddy at inertial current layer in the Canada Basin,Arctic Ocean

An Arctic Ocean eddy in sub-surface layer is analyzed in this paper by use of temperature,salinity and current profiles data obtained at an ice camp in the Canada Basin during the second Chinese Arctic Expedition in summer of 2003.In the vertical temperature section,the eddy shows itself as an isolated cold water block at depth of 60 m with a minimum temperature of-1.5℃,about 0.5℃ colder than the ambient water.Isopycnals in the eddy form a pattern of convex,which indicates the eddy is anticyclonic.Although maximum velocity near 0.4 m s-1 occurs in the current records observed synchronously,the current pattern is far away from a typical eddy.By further analysis,inertial frequency oscillations with amplitudes comparable with the eddy velocity are found in the sub-surface layer currents.After filter the inertial current and mean current,an axisymmetric current pattern of an eddy with maximum velocity radius of 5 km is obtained.The analysis of the T-S characteristics of the eddy core water and its ambient waters supports the conclusion that the eddy was formed on the Chukchi Shelf and migrated northeastward into the northern Canada Basin.     

Evidence of the Link between Broad Emission Line Regions and Accretion Disks in Active Galactic Nuclei

1 INTRODUCTION Most bright active galactic nuclei (AGNs) exhibit broad emission lines, with full width at half maximum (FWHM ≥ 103 km s?1) (Peterson et al. 1999). Some type 1 AGNs could have very broad emission lines (FWHM≥ 20 000 km s?1). Type 2 AGNs s…     

Experimental and computational validation and verification of the Stokes–Darcy and continuum pipe flow models for karst aquifers with dual porosity structure

In our previous study, we developed the Stokes–Darcy (SD) model was developed for flow in a karst aquifer with a conduit bedded in matrix, and the Beavers–Joseph (BJ) condition was used to describe the matrix–conduit interface. We also studied the mathematical well‐posedness of a coupled continuum pipe flow (CCPF) model as well as convergence rates of its finite element approximation. In this study, to compare the SD model with the CCPF model, we used numerical analyses to validate finite element discretisation methods for the two models. Using computational experiments, simulation codes implementing the finite element discretisations are then verified. Further model validation studies are based on the results of laboratory experiments. Comparing the results of computer simulations and experiments, we concluded that the SD model with the Beavers–Joseph interface condition is a valid model for conduit–matrix systems. On the other hand, the CCPF model with the value of the exchange parameter chosen within the range suggested in the literature perhaps does not result in good agreement with experimental observations. We then examined the sensitivity of the CCPF model with respect to the exchange parameter, concluding that, as has previously been noted, the model is highly sensitive for small values of the exchange parameter. However, for larger values, the model becomes less sensitive and, more important, also produces results that are in better agreement with experimental observations. This suggests that the CCPF model may also produce accurate simulation results, if one chooses larger values of the exchange parameter than those suggested in the literature. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mid-to-Far Infrared Spectral Energy Distribution of Galaxies in the Spitzer First Look Survey Field

We made model fitting to the mid-to-far infrared spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for different categories of galaxies in the main extragalactic field of the Spitzer First Look Survey with the aid of spectroscopic information from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that the mid-to-far infrared SEDs of HII galaxies, mixture type galaxies and LINERs can be well fitted by the one-parameter (α) dust model of Dale et al. plus the 13 Gyr dust-free elliptical galaxy model. The statistics of α values indicates that all these galaxies tend to be quiescent, although the HII galaxies are relatively more active than the LINERs. The mid- infrared SEDs of absorption galaxies are well fitted simply by the 13 Gyr dust-free elliptical galaxy template, and the near-to-mid infrared SEDs of QSOs can be represented by AGN NGC 5506.     

Biogas charging and dissipating process and its accumulation in the Sebei gasfield,Qaidam Basin,China

The Sebei gasfield is the largest biogas accumulation found in China and many reservoirs and seal rocks superposed on a syndepositional anticline in Quaternary. The biogas charging and dissipating process and its distribution have been a research focus for many years. The authors suggest a diffusing and accumulating model for the biogas, as they find that the shallower the gas producer, the more methane in the biogas, and the lighter stable carbon isotope composition of methane. Based on the diffusing model, diffused biogas is quantitatively estimated for each potential sandy reservoir in the gasfield, and the gas charging quantity for the sandy reservoir is also calculated by the diffused gas quantity plus gas reserve in-place. A ratio of diffusing quantity to charging quantity is postulated to describe biogas accumulating state in a sandy reservoir, if the ratio is less than 0.6, the reservoir forms a good gas-pool and high-production layer in the gasfield, which often occurs in the reservoirs deeper than 900 m; if the ratio is greater than 0.6, a few gas accumulated in the reservoir, which frequently exists in the reservoirs shallower than 900 m. Therefore, a biogas accumulation model is built up as lateral direct charging from gas source for the sands deeper than 900 m and indirect charging from lower gas-bearing sands by diffusion at depth shallower than 900 m. With this charging and diffusion quantitative model, the authors conducted re-evaluation on each wildcat in the central area of the Qaidam Basin, and found many commercial biogas layers.

     

The rotation of 53 Be stars

Through spectral observations we obtained the rotational velocity Vsini for 53 Be stars, and estimated the values of V and i on the basis of Hutching's method. We analysed the effect of rotation on the width of emission lines and used the emission peak separation to determine the relative size of the shell and the photosphere and the dilution factor. We discuss in depth fast rotating models where stellar winds are present and their relation to the Be phenomenon.     

Dynamic response of pavements on poroelastic half-space soil medium to a moving traffic load

This paper presents an investigation of the steady-state response of pavement systems subjected to a moving traffic load. The traffic loads are simulated by four rectangular load pressures, and the rigid and flexible pavement systems are regarded as an infinite plate resting on a poroelastic half-space soil medium. The contact surface between the plate and the poroelastic half-space is assumed to be smooth and fully permeable. Kirchhoff small-deflection thin-plate theory is employed to analyze the plate, while Biot’s fully dynamic poroelastic theory is used to characterize the poroelastic half-space. The frequency wave-number domain solution of the pavement system is obtained by the compatibility condition between the plate and the poroelastic half-space. By applying the inverse fast Fourier transform, the time domain solution is obtained. Also, the influences of the load speed, the permeability of the soil, and the flexural rigidity of the plate on the response of the pavement system are investigated. The numerical results show that the influences of these parameters on the dynamic response of the pavement system are significant.