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71.
72.
登陆北上台风暴雨突发性增强的一种机制研究 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:5
采用一个三维混合模式对1992年8月30日至9月2日一次登陆北上台风暴雨过程进行了模拟。模式可以较准确地预报出与地面倒槽相一致的地面降水位置及降水量值。模拟的台风云系结构与卫星云图比较表明,外围云场与实例云况吻合很好,验证了本模式模拟卫星云图的能力,对卫星云图预报有实际意义;暴雨突然增幅的直接原因是高层冰云与低层供水云的突然北移重叠造成的。受地面倒槽附近强烈辐合抬升的动力作用,各相态云系的分布与垂直运动紧密相关;辐合线右侧的东南低空急流为降水的增幅及维持提供水汽来源;云的相变潜热非绝热加热作用对暴雨的增幅及维持具有正反馈作用,它对暴雨维持具有积极贡献。 相似文献
73.
Assessment of surface air warming in northeast China, with emphasis on the impacts of urbanization 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
Qingxiang Li Wei Li Peng Si Gao Xiaorong Wenjie Dong Phil Jones Jiayou Huang Lijuan Cao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,99(3-4):469-478
Based on homogenized land surface air temperature (SAT) data (derived from China Homogenized Historical Temperature (CHHT) 1.0), the warming trends over Northeast China are detected in this paper, and the impacts of urban heat islands (UHIs) evaluated. Results show that this region is undergoing rapid warming: the trends of annual mean minimum temperature (MMIT), mean temperature (MT), and mean maximum temperature (MMAT) are 0.40 C decade?1, 0.32 C decade?1, and 0.23 C decade?1, respectively. Regional average temperature series built with these networks including and excluding “typical urban stations” are compared for the periods of 1954–2005. Although impacts of UHIs on the absolute annual and seasonal temperature are identified, UHI contributions to the long-term trends are less than 10% of the regional total warming during the period. The large warming trend during the period is due to a regime shift in around 1988, which accounted for about 51% of the regional warming. 相似文献
74.
中国、北半球和全球的气温突变分析及其趋势预测研究 总被引:37,自引:0,他引:37
本文采用均值差异假设检验研究了中国、北半球和全球气温历史序列的突变现象。分析表明,中国气温从本世纪以来,在40年代末扣年代初曾出现一次由暖到冷的突变。北半球和全球均曾在19世纪末和本世纪20年代发生了突变现象。功率谱分析表明,气温的突变指数曲线具有明显的周期性。一系列比较研究证明,按照分析出的突变点将气温序列分段建模,无论数值误差还是变化趋势,效果均优于整段序列的模型。所以,对未来气温变化趋势作预测,应首先搞清楚未来会处在怎样的气候阶段中,会不会出现突变。研究表明,本文叙述的均生函数累加延拓的时序建模方案,对气温序列有很好的拟合和预测效果。 相似文献
75.
我国月降水和气温网格点资料的处理和分析 总被引:14,自引:2,他引:14
用逐步搜索逼近法的客观分析技术计算出1951-1992年中国月降水量和月平均气温的格点资料,并利用图象识别原理对格点值和站点观测值进行了比较。 相似文献
76.
77.
徐州——宿州弧形双冲——叠瓦扇逆冲断层系统 总被引:51,自引:1,他引:51
郯庐断裂西徐州--宿州地区存在丰一个向西突出的弧形构造,其东侧后缘为倾向腹地的双冲构造,前缘为背驭式的叠瓦扇。东西向的不老河断层和宿北断层将其分为具有不同发育特征的三段。这是华北板块与扬子板块斜冲对接过程中,由于双沟推覆体向NW的反向推力,由东向西间歇式跳跃发展而形成的。该构造后期还被前缘的反向断层,前渊的重力滑动构造和腹地的指状断陷盆地所复杂经。这是不同于Boyer和Elliott简单模式的一种 相似文献
78.
Yueqing Li Dejun Li Song Yang Cao Liu Aihua Zhong Ying Li 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2010,106(1-2):49-56
Variations of precipitation over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau are analyzed by using data over station Yaan including daytime, nighttime, and daily-mean precipitation and satellite-derived information. A comparison of some features over Yaan and other stations is also carried out. Over Yaan, light-moderate precipitation contributes significantly to both the number of rainy days (96.9%) and the amount (66.9%) of total precipitation. The light-moderate precipitation occurs more frequently at nighttime than at daytime (by 44.5 days, or 33.4%, and by 520.6 mm, or 134.4%, each year), and the nighttime precipitation is mainly in the form of light-moderate precipitation. The number of rainy days and the amount of total precipitation have decreased from the 1950s to the 1970s and during the recent 20 years, associated with negative trends of light-moderate precipitation. Similar features are also found in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite data. Local convective precipitation is the main form of the light-moderate precipitation over Yaan. The absorption of latent heat at the lower troposphere and the release of latent heat at the upper troposphere are larger at nighttime than at daytime by 1–2 times and 2–3 times, respectively. Both the peak value and the total release of latent heat over Yaan are significantly larger than those over the Tibetan Plateau, eastern China, and the western Pacific warm pool. These distinct local characteristics of the “rain city” Yaan are closely related to the interaction between the atmospheric circulation and the steep topography on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. 相似文献
79.
Human settlement evaluation in mountain areas based on remote sensing, GIS and ecological niche modeling 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the world’s highest and largest plateau. Due to increasing demands for environment exploration and tourism, a large transitional area is required for altitude adaptation. Hehuang valley, which locates in the transition zone between the Loess Plateau and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has convenient transportation and relatively low elevation. Our question is whether the geographic conditions here are appropriate for adapted stay before going into the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, in this study, we examined the potential use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) for mapping current and potential distribution patterns of human settlements. We chose the Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent), an ENM which integrates climate, remote sensing and geographical data, to model distributions and assess land suitability for transition areas. After preprocessing and selection, the correlation between variables and spatial autocorrelation input data were removed and 106 occurrence points and 9 environmental layers were determined as the model inputs. The threshold-independent model performance was reasonable according to 10 times model running, with the area under the curve (AUC) values being 0.917 ± 0.01, and 0.923 ± 0.002 for test data. Cohen’s kappa coefficient of model performance was 0.848. Results showed that 82.22% of the study extent was not suitable for human settlement. Of the remaining areas, highly suitable areas accounted for 1.19%, moderately for 5.3% and marginally for 11.28%. These suitable areas totaled 418.79 km2, and 86.25% of the sample data was identified in the different gradient of suitable area. The decisive environmental factors were slope and two climate variables: mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality. Our model showed a good performance in mapping and assessing human settlements. This study provides the first predicted potential habitat distribution map for human settlement in Ledu County, which could also help in land use management. 相似文献
80.