40Ar-39Ar ages and trace element contents of Apollo 14 breccias; an interlaboratory cross-calibration of 40Ar-39Ar standards

Rare gas data are presented from step-wise heatings of lunar breccias 14066 and 14318 and from an interlaboratory cross-calibration of five standards used in ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar dating. Four samples of 14066 all show depressed ⁴⁰¹Ar/³⁹¹Ar ratios at high temperatures, thus making age interpretation uncertain. While different in detail, the Ar release patterns in the four samples yield indistinguishable plateau ages of $\text{3.93 ± 0.03}$ b.y. and > 400°C total ages of $\text{3.87 ± 0.06}$ b.y. Concentrations of K, Ca, Ba, Br, U and I are given for 14318 and 14066. We also present an updating of all of the ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages and trace element concentrations previously published by this laboratory.⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar dating standards from Menlo Park, Pasadena, Stony Brook, Toronto and Berkeley are calibrated against each other and the internal homogeneity of their ⁴⁰¹Ar/K ratios is tested. The Berkeley standard (from the St. Severin meteorite) has an age of $\text{4.504 ± 0.020}$ b.y. from this intercalibration.⁸⁰Kr from capture of lunar neutrons is detected in 14318. A comparison of the release pattern of the ⁸⁰Kr produced by lunar neutrons with the ^80,82Kr produced by pile neutrons in 14318, indicates that 14318 has lost approximately 35 per cent of the ⁸⁰Kr produced by lunar neutrons.     

Latitudinal Distribution of O2on Ganymede: Observations with the Hubble Space Telescope

To help constrain the spatial variation of oxygen on Jupiter's satellite Ganymede, and hence have more clues to its mode of production and stability, we have obtained spectral data from the Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) for a single pole-to-pole latitudinal strip, along with several Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) images in three narrow band visible filters. All observations were made of the trailing hemisphere. In the FOS data we observe both visible absorptions at 0.577 and 0.627 μm, associated with dense-phase oxygen (compressed gases, liquids, or solids). Filter options limited the WFPC2 observations to wavelengths near the weaker oxygen absorption at 0.627 μm. These observations suggest that the dense-phase or dimer oxygen form is predominantly found in equatorial and mid-latitudes. The spectroscopic absorption feature appears in both bright and dark terrains but may be somewhat weaker in dark regions, which is consistent with the smaller mean photon path length in the surface in darker areas. Therefore, the abundance of oxygen appears more dependent on latitude and longitude constraints than surface albedo. At the highest latitudes, where the ratio spectra have a strong upturn toward the blue, the oxygen bands do not appear. This relation suggests that dimer oxygen and ozone (as seen by Galileo) have opposite trends with latitude. Possible causes include competition or variation in the preferred stable form, which depends on temperature, solar ultraviolet flux, and/or surface age; enhancement of O₃at the poles due to plasma interactions; or viewing geometry effects that reduce the oxygen features at the poles when observed from Earth. The predominantly equatorial feature supports the production of O₂through plasma bombardment and favors defect trapping over physical adsorption of the dimer molecules in the surface. We briefly consider the implications of Ganymede's magnetosphere for our understanding of O₂and O₃distribution on Ganymede.     

The effect of African growth on future global energy,emissions, and regional development

Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today.     

Evaluating the salinity distribution of a shallow coastal aquifer by vertical multielectrode profiling (Denmark)

A monitoring system, including five groups of piezometers and five vertical multielectrode profiling probes (VMEP), has been installed in an aquifer beneath a coastal dune in Denmark. In order to assess the salinity distribution within the aquifer, geoelectrical data were gathered in March, June and September 2008, by measuring a dipole-dipole and gradient array using multielectrode profiling. Interpretation of the processed resistivity data was performed by regularized inversion using a one-dimensional, horizontally layered model of formation resistivity. The standard deviation on estimated layer log-resistivity was 0.01–0.03. By estimating two parameters of a power function, observed fluid conductivities derived from samples of porewater were related to corresponding estimated formation resistivities. The conductivity profiles correlate with a winter situation in March with high sea level, active recharge and significant wave activity, causing increased hydraulic heads, a thicker freshwater lens and salt water overlying freshwater close to the sea. In June, the thickness of the freshwater lens is reduced due to less recharge and prevailing offshore winds, imposing density-stable conditions and a sharper transition between fresh and brackish water. During the autumn, aquifer recharge is enhanced and hydraulic heads increase, resulting in a thicker freshwater lens.     

EU 20-20-20 energy policy as a model for global climate mitigation

The EU has established an aggressive portfolio with explicit near-term targets for 2020 – to reduce GHG emissions by 20%, rising to 30% if the conditions are right, to increase the share of renewable energy to 20%, and to make a 20% improvement in energy efficiency – intended to be the first step in a long-term strategy to limit climate forcing. The effectiveness and cost of extending these measures in time are considered along with the ambition and propagation to the rest of the world. Numerical results are reported and analysed for the contribution of the portfolio's various elements through a set of sensitivity experiments. It is found that the hypothetical programme leads to very substantial reductions in GHG emissions, dramatic increases in use of electricity, and substantial changes in land-use including reduced deforestation, but at the expense of higher food prices. The GHG emissions reductions are driven primarily by the direct limits. Although the carbon price is lower under the hypothetical protocol than it would be under the emissions cap alone, the economic cost of the portfolio is higher, between 13% and 22%.     

Phase Corrections of Small-Loop HF Radar System Receive Arrays With Ships of Opportunity

This paper is an extension of other work that addresses the use of radar echoes from ships of opportunity to determine the proper phase corrections for small-loop phased-array antennas used within high-frequency (HF) ground-wave radar systems. This technique also yields estimates for unknown ship bearings that (for cases where there is adequate signal-to-noise ratio of 20 dB or more) are consistent to within 2deg-3deg among measurements from independent radar frequencies. Within this paper, phase corrections gathered from actual ships of opportunity are compared to phase corrections gathered during a calibrated transponder run, in which the ship bearing is known. The phase corrections derived from the ship of opportunity presented in this paper were consistent with the known phase corrections to within 13.2deg (for the worst case). Furthermore, the estimates of the ship bearings collected from the two usable radar frequencies were consistent to within 1deg of each other     

Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.     

The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios

This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.     

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.