Predictive permeability variations in a Hermod sand reservoir,Stine Segments,Siri Field,Danish North Sea

The Hermod sand of the Stine Segments, Siri Field, Danish North Sea, displays large permeability variations (1–600 mD). These permeability variations represent horizontal layering in the reservoir, largely formed by diagenetic processes. They have a significant impact on reservoir performance, because horizontal producers in fairly thin reservoirs (∼30 m) are protected against bottom-water influx and can produce water-free for long periods of time.     

Obliquity and precessional forcing of continental snow fall and melt: implications for orbital forcing of Pleistocene ice ages

Milankovitch theory posits that Earth's orbital cycles were the primary forcing of Pleistocene ice-age cycles through their strong influence on summer insolation at high latitudes. Accordingly, Milankovitch theory predicts ice volume should vary at both obliquity and precessional periods. However, early Pleistocene global ice volume varied mainly at the obliquity period with weak variability at the precessional period suggesting that Milankovitch theory is not sufficient to explain the ice-age cycles. Here we describe the results from a series of coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model experiments, using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model, that systematically investigate the influence of precession and obliquity on continental snowfall and potential ablation.Our model results identify three factors that magnify the influence of obliquity forcing on the global ice volume: First, high-latitude snowfall variability is dominated by changes in Earth's axial tilt. Second, hemispheric changes in net snowfall due to Earth's precession are out-of-phase, and largely cancel to produce a very small global snowfall change. Third, snowmelt variability over Antarctica responds greatly to changes in obliquity that intensify accumulation over obliquity cycle. We discuss the implications of these factors for existing hypotheses that account for the variability in the ice volume record.     

Multi-criteria spatial screening and uncertainty analysis applied to direct-use geothermal projects

ABSTRACT

The focus of this work is general methods for prioritization or screening of project sites based on the favorability of multiple spatial criteria. We present a threshold-based transformation of each underlying spatial favorability factor into a continuous scale with a common favorability interpretation across all criteria. We compare several methods of computing site favorability and propagating uncertainty from the data to the favorability metrics. Including uncertainty allows decision makers to determine if seeming differences among sites are significant. We address uncertainty using Taylor series approximations and analytical distributions, which are compared to computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our methods are applied to siting direct-use geothermal energy projects in the Appalachian Basin, where our knowledge about any particular site is limited, yet sufficient data exist to estimate favorability. We consider four factors that contribute to site favorability: the thermal resource described by the depth to 80°C rock, natural reservoir productivity described by rock permeability and thickness, potential for induced seismicity, and the estimated cost of surface infrastructure for heat distribution. Those factors are combined in three ways. We develop favorability uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methods. All methods are general and can be applied to other multi-criteria spatial screening problems.     

Classification of Thermal Patterns at Karst Springs and Cave Streams

Thermal patterns of karst springs and cave streams provide potentially useful information concerning aquifer geometry and recharge. Temperature monitoring at 25 springs and cave streams in southeastern Minnesota has shown four distinct thermal patterns. These patterns can be divided into two types: those produced by flow paths with ineffective heat exchange, such as conduits, and those produced by flow paths with effective heat exchange, such as small fractures and pore space. Thermally ineffective patterns result when water flows through the aquifer before it can equilibrate to the rock temperature. Thermally ineffective patterns can be either event‐scale, as produced by rainfall or snowmelt events, or seasonal scale, as produced by input from a perennial surface stream. Thermally effective patterns result when water equilibrates to rock temperature, and the patterns displayed depend on whether the aquifer temperature is changing over time. Shallow aquifers with seasonally varying temperatures display a phase‐shifted seasonal signal, whereas deeper aquifers with constant temperatures display a stable temperature pattern. An individual aquifer may display more than one of these patterns. Since karst aquifers typically contain both thermally effective and ineffective routes, we argue that the thermal response is strongly influenced by recharge mode.     

RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5?W?m^?2 in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5?W?m^?2, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.     

An alternative method for interpreting jet erosion test (JET) data: part 1. Theory

The jet erosion test (JET) is a widely applied method for deriving the erodibility of cohesive soils and sediments. There are suggestions in the literature that further examination of the method widely used to interpret the results of these erosion tests is warranted. This paper presents an alternative approach for such interpretation based on the principle of energy conservation. This new approach recognizes that evaluation of erodibility using the jet tester should involve the mass of soil eroded, so determination of this eroded mass (or else scour volume and bulk density) is required. The theory partitions jet kinetic energy flux into that involved in eroding soil, the remainder being dissipated in a variety of mechanisms. The energy required to erode soil is defined as the product of the eroded mass and a resistance parameter which is the energy required to entrain unit mass of soil, denoted J (in J/kg), whose magnitude is sought. An effective component rate of jet energy consumption is defined which depends on depth of scour penetration by the jet, but not on soil type, or the uniformity of the soil type being investigated. Application of the theory depends on experimentally determining the spatial form of jet energy consumption displayed in erosion of a uniform body of soil, an approach of general application. The theory then allows determination of the soil resistance parameter J as a function of depth of scour penetration into any soil profile, thus evaluating such profile variation in erodibility as may exist. This parameter J has been used with the same meaning in soil and gully erosion studies for the last 25 years. Application of this approach will appear in a companion publication as part 2. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.