Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years,the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system,which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target,the physical predictive and downscaling components,and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end.A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble;THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi,a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China.The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information.Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/international operating models were independent from the user-end,the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.     

新疆阿勒泰市阿巴宫铁矿磷灰石微量和稀土元素特征及矿床成因探讨

阿巴宫铁矿床产于阿尔泰南缘晚志留世-早泥盆世的酸性火山岩中.矿体呈透镜状、脉状及似层状,受火山断裂构造控制,与围岩界线清楚;围岩蚀变不很发育,矿石品位较高;磷灰石与磁铁矿共生.其特征可以与瑞典北部Kiruna型铁矿床、宁芜玢岩铁矿床等进行对比.对阿巴宫铁矿床两个不同矿区磷灰石的稀土元素及微量元素组成的分析结果表明,磷灰石中∑REE变化于1352.96×10-6～6986.33×10-6之间,平均值为3717.70×10-6; (La/Yb)N比值变化于1.37～9.77之间,平均值5.22;δEu范围在0.22～0.30之间,平均值0.25;以轻稀土元素富集、轻重稀土元素分馏较弱和Eu的显著负异常为特征,与瑞典北部Kiruna型铁矿床、宁芜玢岩铁矿床相一致,表明阿巴宫铁矿床与上述铁矿床成因相同,均属岩浆分异成因.变质流纹岩稀土元素分布曲线形态与磷灰石的非常相似,微量元素特征也基本一致,表明铁的成矿作用与花岗质岩浆的分异-矿浆侵入有关.      

六种不同变质程度煤的电阻率研究

煤岩电阻率是衡量煤岩电性特征最重要的参数之一,是进行煤田电法勘探的物性前提.研究煤岩电阻率,尤其是其各向异性特征具有重要的理论和实践意义.本文通过对8块6种不同变质程度的煤岩电阻率及其各向异性测量发现:煤岩三方向的电阻率均随频率增加下降,且两者呈极好的负指数关系,平均相关系数达0.95以上;煤岩电阻率呈现明显的各向异性,走向与垂向、倾向与垂向之间的电阻率差异显著大于走向与倾向之间的电阻率差异;从褐煤到瘦煤,随着变质程度加深,煤岩电阻率呈上升趋势,但到无烟煤阶段,电阻率急剧下降;煤岩电阻率受湿度影响强烈,饱和水与非饱和水情况下电阻率存在较大差异.     

离子类土壤固化剂对高温冻土工程性质改良试验研究

为了研究离子类土壤固化剂对青藏高原高温冻土工程性质的改良效果,分别选用酸性和碱性离子类土壤固化剂对冻结青藏粉质黏土进行了改良测试。塑性指数测试表明,两种固化剂的最优含量为0.2%。固化剂含量小于0.3%时,冻结温度相对原状土样没有明显的下降。对不同含量碱性和酸性固化土力学性质进行了测试,无侧限单轴抗压强度相对原状土样整体增大,碱性和酸性固化土抗压强度最大分别提高了78.7%和46.6%,最优配比（0.2%）的碱性和酸性固化土体积压缩系数随养护龄期增大而减小,两种固化土的体积压缩系数相对原状土样最大分别下降了80.0%和38.5%,固化效果明显。碱性固化土力学性质变化更显著,说明其更适合对青藏黏土进行改良。     

中蒙俄毗邻地区中蒙古—额尔古纳成矿带成矿地质条件与成矿特征

正介于蒙古—鄂霍次克断裂带和中蒙古—得尔布干断裂带之间的中蒙古—额尔古纳成矿带,西起蒙古杭爱山,经中戈壁省、乔巴山,向东延伸至我国大兴安岭北段满洲里—呼吗一带,封闭于俄罗斯阿穆尔州,中国境内部分包括了大兴安岭成矿省的上黑龙江(边缘海)Au(Cu-Mo)成矿带和额尔古纳Cu-Mo-Pb-Zn-Ag-Au—萤石成矿亚带(徐志刚等,2008;朱群等,2014)。     

Geological and Fluid Inclusion Constraints on Gold Deposition Processes of the Dayingezhuang Gold Deposit,Jiaodong Peninsula,China

The Dayingezhuang gold deposit, hosted mainly by Late Jurassic granitoids on Jiaodong Peninsula in eastern China, contains an estimated 170 t of gold and is one of the largest deposits within the Zhaoping fracture zone. The orebodies consist of auriferous altered pyrite–sericite–quartz granites that show Jiaojia-type (i.e., disseminated and veinlet) mineralization. Mineralization and alteration are structurally controlled by the NE- to NNE-striking Linglong detachment fault. The mineralization can be divided into four stages: (K-feldspar)–pyrite–sericite–quartz, quartz–gold–pyrite, quartz–gold–polymetallic sulfide, and quartz–carbonate, with the majority of the gold being produced in the second and third stages. Based on a combination of petrography, microthermometry, and laser Raman spectroscopy, three types of fluid inclusion were identified in the vein minerals: NaCl–H2O (A-type), CO2–H2O–NaCl (AC-type), and pure CO2 (PC-type). Quartz crystals in veinlets that formed during the first stage contain mainly AC-type fluid inclusions, with rare PC-type inclusions. These fluid inclusions homogenize at temperatures of 251°C–403°C and have low salinities of 2.2–9.4 wt% NaCl equivalent. Quartz crystals that formed in the second and third stages contain all three types of fluid inclusions, with total homogenization temperatures of 216°C–339°C and salinities of 1.8–13.8 wt% NaCl equivalent for the second stage and homogenization temperatures of 195°C–321°C and salinities of 1.4–13.3 wt% NaCl equivalent for the third stage. In contrast, quartz crystals that formed in the fourth stage contains mainly A-type fluid inclusions, with minor occurrences of AC-type inclusions; these inclusions have homogenization temperatures of 106°C–287°C and salinities of 0.5–7.7 wt% NaCl equivalent. Gold in the ore-forming fluids may have changed from Au(HS)0 as the dominant species under acidic conditions and at relatively high temperatures and fO2 in the early stages, to Au(HS)2– under neutral-pH conditions at lower temperatures and fO2 in the later stages. The precipitation of gold and other metals is inferred to be caused by a combination of fluid immiscibility and water–rock interaction.     

内蒙古扎兰屯北部地区早白垩世酸性火山岩锆石U- Pb年代学和地球化学研究

本文对大兴安岭扎兰屯北部地区早白垩世酸性火山岩进行了锆石U-Pb年代学、岩石地球化学以及Sr-Nd同位素的研究,以便对其岩石成因和区域动力学背景予以制约。通过锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年,获得大兴安岭北部地区满克头鄂博组流纹岩(D14208)加权年龄141±3Ma(早白垩世),玛尼吐组粗面英安岩(D14210)加权年龄135±5Ma(早白垩世)。在地球化学研究方面,它们均为钙碱性系列,SiO_2分别为76.41%～78.01%和64.71%～65.63%,MgO分别为0.04%～0.22%和1.12%～1.35%,Mg~#值分别为12～42和32～38,富集大离子亲石元素、轻稀土元素,亏损高场强元素、重稀土元素,Eu/Eu~*分别介于0.40～0.52和0.82～0.95之间。Rb/Sr比值分别变化于2.42～3.21和0.12～0.15之间,K/Rb比值分别变化于284～290和284～306之间,Nb/Th比值分别变化于2.35～3.82和2.60～3.63之间。结合两个样品ε_(Nd)(t)值分别为1.57～2.22和1.72～2.24,二阶段模式年龄(t_(DM2))分别为751～804Ma和743～786Ma,认为岩石应来源于地壳。综合东北地区前人的同时代岩浆-构造成果,认为岩石形成于蒙古-鄂霍茨克洋闭合所引起的伸展环境。     

一个适用于我国北方的沙尘暴天气数值预测系统及其应用试验

将澳大利亚新南威尔士大学(UNSW)邵亚平发展的具有清晰风蚀物理学概念的起沙数值模式、输送模式与PSU/NCAR的中尺度气象预报模式MM5进行耦合,以高精度中国区域的GIS(Geographic Information System)数据为基础,建立了一个较完整的沙尘暴起沙和输送过程的预测系统.该预测系统可以预测地面起沙率和大气中沙尘浓度.在此基础上,采用该系统对2002年3～4月3次影响我国北方大部分地区的沙尘(暴)天气的起沙和输送过程进行了模拟试验.试验结果表明模拟的沙尘浓度与地面天气现象及卫星云图的沙尘天气范围比较一致,预测系统对沙尘天气的起沙和输送过程有较好的模拟能力.北方上述大范围沙尘天气的沙尘源地为蒙古国的南戈壁省、东戈壁省,内蒙古中西部,河北省北部,山西省东北部,甘肃和青海北部等地区.起沙中贡献最大的粒子粒径为2～11μm和11～22 μm,能够长时间、长距离输送的沙尘也是上述大小的粒子,沙尘粒子的垂直输送高度一般在500 hPa以下.     

中国城市流动人口住房质量的空间分异与影响因素

基于2015年全国1%人口抽样调查和2014年流动人口动态监测调查（CMDS）数据,本文以房屋面积、设施条件、建筑年代和社区类型来衡量流动人口住房质量,运用空间统计工具探讨了中国310个地级及以上行政单元流动人口住房质量的空间分异特征,进而通过空间计量模型考察流动人口住房质量的影响因素。研究发现：① 流动人口住房整体水平虽不及本地居民,但差距并不悬殊;② 流动人口住房质量的空间差异明显,中部地区流动人口住房质量最高,东部、西部和东北地区在住房质量4个方面各有劣势;③ 按照行政等级和规模等级划分,中等城市流动人口住房质量最好,超大城市住房质量最差;④ 流动人口住房质量呈现出显著的空间正相关,但各指标高、低值集聚区的分布格局存在一定差异;⑤ 流动人口个体（内部特征）和流入地（外部特征）因素对流动人口住房质量具有显著影响,分别作用于不同的方面;⑥ 中小城市和大城市流动人口住房质量的决定因素及作用强度不尽相同。