Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production

This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required.     

Microwave remote sensing of sea ice in the AIDJEX Main Experiment

During the AIDJEX Main Experiment, April 1975 through May 1976, a comprehensive microwave sensing program was performed on the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Surface and aircraft measurements were obtained during all seasons using a wide variety of active and passive microwave sensors. The surface program obtained passive microwave measurements of various ice types using four antennas mounted on a tracked vehicle. In three test regions, each with an area of approximately 1.5 × 10⁴ m², detailed ice crystallographic, dielectric properties, and brightness temperatures of first-year, multiyear, and first-year/multiyear mixtures were measured. A NASA aircraft obtained passive microwave measurements of the entire area of the AIDJEX manned station array (triangle) during each of 18 flights. This verified the earlier reported ability to distinguish first-year and multiyear ice types and concentration and gave new information on ways to observe ice mixtures and thin ice types. The active microwave measurements from aircraft included those from an X- and L-band radar and from a scatterometer. The former is used to study a wide variety of ice features and to estimate deformations, while both are equally usable to observe ice types. With the present data, only the scatterometer can be used to distinguish positively multiyear from first-year and various types of thin ice. This is best done using coupled active and passive microwave sensing.We dedicate this work to our beloved friend William NordbergHe pioneered in microwave ice observations, and his brilliance and enthusiasm inspired all of us.     

Abrupt climate change as an important agent of ecological change in the Northeast U.S. throughout the past 15,000 years

We use a series of tests to evaluate two competing hypotheses about the association of climate and vegetation trends in the northeastern United States over the past 15 kyrs. First, that abrupt climate changes on the scale of centuries had little influence on long-term vegetation trends, and second, that abrupt climate changes interacted with slower climate trends to determine the regional sequence of vegetation phases. Our results support the second. Large dissimilarity between temporally close fossil pollen samples indicates large vegetation changes within 500 years across >4° of latitude at ca 13.25–12.75, 12.0–11.5, 10.5, 8.25, and 5.25 ka. The evidence of vegetation change coincides with independent isotopic and sedimentary indicators of rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance. In several cases, abrupt changes reversed long-term vegetation trends, such as when spruce (Picea) and pine (Pinus) pollen percentages rapidly declined to the north and increased to the south at ca 13.25–12.75 and 8.25 ka respectively. Abrupt events accelerated other long-term trends, such as a regional increase in beech (Fagus) pollen percentages at 8.5–8.0 ka. The regional hemlock (Tsuga) decline at ca 5.25 ka is unique among the abrupt events, and may have been induced by high climatic variability (i.e., repeated severe droughts from 5.7 to 2.0 ka); autoregressive ecological and evolutionary processes could have maintained low hemlock abundance until ca 2.0 ka. Delayed increases in chestnut (Castanea) pollen abundance after 5.8 and 2.5 ka also illustrate the potential for multi-century climate variability to influence species' recruitment as well as mortality. Future climate changes will probably also rapidly initiate persistent vegetation change, particularly by acting as broad, regional-scale disturbances.     

Historical trends of mercury and spheroidal carbonaceous particle deposition in sub-alpine lakes in the Great Basin,United States

The geochemistry of lake sediments was used to identify anthropogenic factors influencing aquatic ecosystems of sub-alpine lakes in the western United States during the past century. Sediment cores were recovered from six high-elevation lakes in the central Great Basin of the United States. The proxies utilized to examine the degree of recent anthropogenic environmental change include spheroidal carbonaceous particle (SCP), mercury (Hg), and sediment organic content estimated using loss-on-ignition. Chronologies for the sediment cores, developed using ²¹⁰Pb, indicate the cores span the twentieth century. Mercury flux varied between lakes but all exhibited increasing fluxes during the mid-twentieth century. The mean ratio of modern (post-A.D. 1985) to preindustrial (pre-A.D. 1880) Hg flux was 5.2, which is comparable to the results from previous studies conducted in western North America. Peak SCP flux for all lakes occurred between approximately A.D. 1940 and A.D. 1970, after which time the SCP flux was greatly reduced. The reduction in SCP input is likely due to better controls on combustion sources. Measured Hg concentrations and calculated sedimentation rates suggest atmospheric Hg flux increased in the early 1900s, from A.D. 1920 to A.D. 1990, and at present. Atmospheric deposition is the primary source of the anthropogenic inputs of Hg and SCPs to these high elevation lakes. The input of SCPs, which is largely driven by regional sources, has declined with the implementation of national pollution control regulations. Mercury deposition in the Great Basin has most likely been influenced more by regional inputs.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Appraising stone column settlement prediction methods using finite element analyses

Numerous approaches exist for the prediction of the settlement improvement offered by the vibro-replacement technique in weak or marginal soil deposits. The majority of the settlement prediction methods are based on the unit cell assumption, with a small number based on plane strain or homogenisation techniques. In this paper, a comprehensive review and assessment of the more popular settlement prediction methods is carried out with a view to establishing which method(s) is/are in best agreement with finite element predictions from a series of PLAXIS 2D axisymmetric analyses on an end-bearing column. The Hardening Soil Model in PLAXIS 2D has been used to model the behaviour of both the granular column material and the treated soft clay soil. This study has shown that purely elastic settlement prediction methods overestimate the settlement improvement for large modular ratios, while the methods based on elastic–plastic theory are in better agreement with finite element predictions at higher modular ratios. In addition, a parameter sensitivity study has been carried out to establish the influence of a range of different design parameters on predictions obtained using a selection of elastic–plastic methods.     

A 2000-yr reconstruction of air temperature in the Great Basin of the United States with specific reference to the Medieval Climatic Anomaly

A sediment core representing the past two millennia was recovered from Stella Lake in the Snake Range of the central Great Basin in Nevada. The core was analyzed for sub-fossil chironomids and sediment organic content. A quantitative reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed using a regional training set and a chironomid-based WA-PLS inference model (r²_jack = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). The chironomid-based MJAT reconstruction suggests that the interval between AD 900 and AD 1300, corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), was characterized by MJAT elevated 1.0°C above the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA), but likely not as warm as recent conditions. Comparison of the Stella Lake temperature reconstruction to previously published paleoclimate records from this region indicates that the temperature fluctuations inferred to have occurred at Stella Lake between AD 900 and AD 1300 correspond to regional records documenting hydroclimate variability during the MCA interval. The Stella Lake record provides evidence that elevated summer temperature contributed to the increased aridity that characterized the western United States during the MCA.     

Numerical Modelling of the Anisotropic Mechanical Behaviour of Opalinus Clay at the Laboratory-Scale Using FEM/DEM

The Opalinus Clay (OPA) is an argillaceous rock formation selected to host a deep geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste in Switzerland. It has been shown that the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) in this formation is heavily affected by the anisotropic mechanical response of the material related to the presence of bedding planes. In this context, the purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to illustrate the new developments that have been introduced into the combined finite-discrete element method (FEM/DEM) to model layered materials and (ii) to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new modelling approach in simulating the short-term mechanical response of OPA at the laboratory-scale. A transversely isotropic elastic constitutive law is implemented to account for the anisotropic elastic modulus, while a procedure to incorporate a distribution of preferentially oriented defects is devised to capture the anisotropic strength. Laboratory results of indirect tensile tests and uniaxial compression tests are used to calibrate the numerical model. Emergent strength and deformation properties, together with the simulated damage mechanisms, are shown to be in strong agreement with experimental observations. Subsequently, the calibrated model is validated by investigating the effect of confinement and the influence of the loading angle with respect to the specimen anisotropy. Simulated fracture patterns are discussed in the context of the theory of brittle rock failure and analyzed with reference to the EDZ formation mechanisms observed at the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory.     

Seasonal change in the deep atmosphere of Uranus

We present high-resolution radio maps of Uranus, made from data collected in 1994 at wavelengths of 2 and 6 cm, which show large-scale changes occurring deep and rapidly in the troposphere. Brightness features in these maps are significantly different from those observed throughout the 1980's. These differences are not due to the changing viewing geometry, but result from atmospheric changes in the 5 to 50 bar region. All the observations show strong latitudinal variations in absorber abundance and/or temperature, causing the South Pole to appear brighter than lower latitudes. The transition between bright pole and darker latitudes is always near −45°, but between 1989 and 1994 the contrast between the regions increased significantly. This suggests that the large-scale circulation in the upper 50 bars of the uranian Southern Hemisphere changed. Older, disk-averaged microwave observations have suggested that seasonal variability occurs, but these new maps are the first to provide detailed timing and location information which can be used to test dynamical models.