Climate,stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: societal trends and forecast value

We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts. Broad, Pfaff and Taddei equally share lead authorship.     

Water tank and numerical model studies of flow over steep smooth two-dimensional hills

The present work investigates the role of different treatments of the lower boundary condition on the numerical prediction of flows over two-dimensional, smooth, steep hills. Four different law of the wall formulations are tested when a large recirculating region is formed on the lee side of the hill. Numerical implementation of the near-wall functions was made through a finite elements code. The standard κ–ε model was used to close the averaged Navier–Stokes equations. Results are validated through original data obtained in a water tank. Measurements resorted to laser Doppler anemometry. The experiment provide detailed data for the characterization of the reverse flow in the region between the separation and the reattachment points, with emphasis on the near wall region. The experimental wall shear stress distribution is compared with the results provided by the different laws of the wall showing good agreement. The numerical predictions are shown to vary markedly between different formulations.     

The 9th of July 1998 Faial Island (Azores,North Atlantic) seismic sequence

The Faial earthquake (M _L 5.8) that occurred on the 9th of July, 1998, in the Azores region (north Atlantic), caused nine casualties and severe destruction affecting more than 5,000 people. The main shock was located at sea, 10 km NE of the Faial Island, and triggered a seismic sequence that lasted for several weeks and was characterized by an unusual high p-value of 1.40 for the modified Omori law. We present here the results of a joint inversion of hypocenters and 1D velocity model performed on the data collected by the permanent network complemented with a temporary network installed shortly after the occurrence of the main event. The 1D velocity model shows a heterogeneous upper crust, testified by the observed differences in site effects at the stations, while the middle crust from ∼2.5 to 8 km in depth is quite homogeneous. The Moho is located at a depth of about 12–13 km and the Vp/Vs ratio is found to be around 1.78. The events at depth are mainly concentrated in the middle-lower crust (8–12 km), while their spatial distribution shows a main cluster, visible after relocation, SSE trending. This direction of elongation is consistent with one of the fault planes (N151°E) of the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution for the main shock. The same plane is the preferred main shock fault plane inferred after a Coulomb failure function analysis on the aftershock distribution. The main event relocation points to a focal depth shallower than 5 km. The aftershocks pattern shows that several fault systems were reactivated by the stress perturbation induced by the main shock. Besides the two main tectonic directions, trending WNW–ESE and NNW–SSE, observed in the tectonics of Faial, Pico, and S. Jorge, there is also evidence of a new tectonic direction trending WSW–ENE.     

Spatial Analysis of Airborne Geophysical Data Applied to Geological Mapping and Mineral Prospecting in the Serra Leste Region, Carajás Mineral Province, Brazil

The Serra Leste region, located in the northeast portion of Carajás Mineral Province (PA), hosts important chrome-PGE, Au–Pd–Pt, Cu–Mo–Au, iron, and manganese deposits and occurrences related to different geological settings. We present a regional prospective model with focus on PGE mineralizations based on airborne geophysics (magnetometry, gamma-ray spectrometry and time domain electromagnetometry) and geological data. Geological and geophysics data analysis indicate a plausible correspondence between areas with meta-mafic–ultramafic rocks and low values in gamma spectrometry, mainly for the thorium channel. The meta-ultramafic units of the complexes, the main host rock of the PGE mineralization, are well defined by analytic signal from the anomalous magnetic field and by the apparent conductance anomalies derived from the GEOTEM system. The combination of the derivative products with updated geological data of the Serra Leste region and PGE-Luanga deposit enable to establish a regional prospective model for PGE and the identification of new targets within the studied area.     

Bivariate autoregressive models for the time series of significant wave height and mean period

This paper generalises the application of univariate models of the long-term time series of significant wave height to the case of the bivariate series of significant wave height and mean period. A brief review of the basic features of multivariate autoregressive models is presented, and then applications are made to the wave time series of Figueira da Foz, in Portugal. It is demonstrated that the simulated series from these models exhibit the correlation between the two parameters a feature that univariate series cannot reproduce. An application to two series of significant wave height from two neighbouring stations shows the applicability of this type of models to other type of correlated data sets.     

Field measurements of coastal waves and currents in Portugal and Greece

The MAST II WAVEMOD Project aimed at improving stochastic modelling of ocean waves and currents in coastal waters. In order to supplement existing data, two measurement campaigns were carried out, one on the Atlantic coast of Portugal, and, secondly, on the northern coast of Crete in the Mediterranean. The Portuguese measurements covered 7 months during winter 1993–1994, while off Crete, measurements started early in February 1994 and continued for 10 months. In both sites, two directional Waveriders and one non-directional Waverider were deployed along a transect out from the coast in water depths between 10 and 100 m. In addition, the Mediterranean site also incorporated measurements of mean current velocities. Available satellite data were analysed to supplement the buoy data. In this paper, both measurement campaigns are described together with a presentation of some of the data collected.     

Eddy-induced upwelling off Cape São Tomé (22°S,Brazil)

The regional ocean off southeast Brazil (20°S–28°S) is known as a current-eddy-upwelling region. The proximity of the Brazil Current to the coast in the Cape São Tomé vicinities, as well as of its quasi-stationary unstable meanders, suggests the possibility of background eddy-induced upwelling. Such phenomenon can intensify the prevalent coastal upwelling due to wind and topographic effects. In this paper, with the help of a numerical simulation, we provide evidence that eddy-induced upwelling in the absence of wind is possible in this region. The simulation was conducted with a regional configuration of the 3-D Princeton Ocean Model initialized by a feature-based implementation of the Brazil Current and Cape Frio eddy, blended with climatology.     

Effects of afforestation on groundwater recharge and water budgets in the western region of Uruguay

Uruguay has stimulated the development of its forest sector since the promulgation of Forest Law N° 15 939 in December of 1987. Nevertheless, the substitution of natural grasslands with forest plantations for industrial use has raised concerns regarding hydrological processes of groundwater recharge and water consumption involving evapotranspiration. The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of this substitution approach on water resources. Input data were collected from two small experimental watersheds of roughly 100–200 hectares located in western Uruguay. The watersheds are characterized by Eucalyptus Globulus ssp. Maidenni and natural grasslands for cattle use. Total rainfall, stream discharge, rainfall redistribution, soil water content and groundwater level data were collected. Groundwater recharge was estimated from water table fluctuations and from groundwater contributions to base flows. Seasonal and annual water budgets were computed from October of 2006 to September of 2014 to evaluate changes in the hydrological processes. The data show a decrease in annual specific discharge of roughly 17% for mean hydrological years and no conclusive effects on annual groundwater recharge in the forested watershed relative to the reference pasture watershed. Reduced annual specific discharge is equivalent to the mean annual interception. The computed actual annual evapotranspiration is consistent with international catchment measurements. Reduction rates vary seasonally and according to accumulated rainfall and its temporary distribution. The degree of specific discharge decline is particularly high for drier autumns and winters (32 to 28%) when the corresponding rainfall varies from 275 to 400 mm. These results are of relevance for water resources management efforts, as water uses downstream can be affected. These findings, based on a study period dominated by anomalous wet springs and summers and by dry autumns and winters, oppose earlier results based on 34 years of rainfall and discharge data drawn from Uruguayan large basins. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterisation of Apatites as Potential Uranium Reference Materials for Fission‐track Dating by LA‐ICP‐MS

We report homogeneity tests on large natural apatite crystals to evaluate their potential as U reference materials for apatite fission‐track (AFT) thermochronology by laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS). The homogeneity tests include the measurements of major element concentrations by electron probe microanalysis (EPMA), whereas for U concentration, isotope dilution (ID) ICP‐MS and laser ablation (LA) ICP‐MS were employed. Two apatite crystals are potential reference materials for LA‐ICP‐MS analysis: a 1 cm³ fraction of a Durango crystal (7.5 μg g^?1 U) and a 1 cm³ Mud Tank crystal (6.9 μg g^?1 U). The relative standard deviation (1 RSD) of the U concentration determined by ID‐ICP‐MS of both apatite crystals was ≤ 1.5%, whereas 1 RSD for the LA‐ICP‐MS results was better than 4%, providing sufficient homogeneity for fission‐track dating. The results on the U homogeneity for two different apatite samples are an important step towards establishing in situ dating routines for AFT analysis by LA‐ICP‐MS.     

Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.