A Case Study on the Effects of Heterogeneous Soil Moisture on Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Structure in the Southern Great Plains, U.S.A. Part II: Mesoscale Modelling

The importance of soil moisture inputs and improved model physics in the prediction of the daytime boundary-layer structure during the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment 1997 (SGP97) is investigated using the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model MM5. This is Part II of a two-part study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed boundary-layer structure. Part I focuses on observations and utilizes a simple model while Part II uses observations and MM5 modelling. Soil moisture inputs tested include a lookup table based on soil type and season, output from an offline land-surface model (LSM) forced by atmospheric observations, and high-resolution ( 800 m) airborne microwave remotely sensed data. Model physics improvements are investigated by comparing an LSM directly coupled with the MM5 to a simpler force-restore method at the surface. The scale of land surface heterogeneities is compared to the scale of their effects on boundary-layer structure.The use of more detailed soil moisture fields allowed the MM5 to better represent the large-scale (hundreds of km) and small-scale (tens of km) horizontal gradients in surface-layer weather and, to a lesser degree, the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, which was evaluated against observations measured by differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The benefits of coupling an LSM to the MM5 were not readily evident in this summertime case, with the model having particular difficulty simulating the timing of maximum surface fluxes while underestimating the depth of the mixed layer.     

The potential transient dynamics of forests in New England under historical and projected future climate change

Projections of vegetation distribution that incorporate the transient responses of vegetation to climate change are likely to be more efficacious than those that assume an equilibrium between climate and vegetation. We examine the non-equilibrium dynamics of a temperate forest region under historic and projected future climate change using the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS. We parameterized LPJ-GUESS for the New England region of the United Sates utilizing eight forest cover types that comprise the regionally dominant species. We developed a set of climate data at a monthly-step and a 30-arc second spatial resolution to run the model. These datasets consist of past climate observations for the period 1901?C2006 and three general circulation model projections for the period 2007?C2099. Our baseline (1971?C2000) simulation reproduces the distribution of forest types in our study region as compared to the National Land Cover Data 2001 (Kappa statistic?=?0.54). Under historic and nine future climate change scenarios, maple-beech-basswood, oaks and aspen-birch were modeled to move upslope at an estimated rate of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5?m?yr^?1 from 1901 to 2006, and continued this trend at an accelerated rate of around 0.5, 0.9 and 1.7?m?yr^?1 from 2007 to 2099. Spruce-fir and white pine-cedar were modeled to contract to mountain ranges and cooler regions of our study region under projected future climate change scenarios. By the end of the 21^st century, 60% of New England is projected to be dominated by oaks relative to 21% at the beginning of the 21^st century, while northern New England is modeled to be dominated by aspen-birch. In mid and central New England, maple-beech-basswood, yellow birch-elm and hickories co-occur and form novel species associations. In addition to warming-induced northward and upslope shifts, climate change causes more complex changes in our simulations, such as reversed conversions between forest types that currently share similar bioclimatic ranges. These results underline the importance of considering community interactions and transient dynamics in modeling studies of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.     

Current state and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems: II. Heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling, and biodiversity

As part of the Canadian contribution to the International Polar Year (IPY), several major international research programs have focused on offshore arctic marine ecosystems. The general goal of these projects was to improve our understanding of how the response of arctic marine ecosystems to climate warming will alter food web structure and ecosystem services provided to Northerners. At least four key findings from these projects relating to arctic heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling and biodiversity have emerged: (1) Contrary to a long-standing paradigm of dormant ecosystems during the long arctic winter, major food web components showed relatively high level of winter activity, well before the spring release of ice algae and subsequent phytoplankton bloom. Such phenological plasticity among key secondary producers like zooplankton may thus narrow the risks of extreme mismatch between primary production and secondary production in an increasingly variable arctic environment. (2) Tight pelagic-benthic coupling and consequent recycling of nutrients at the seafloor characterize specific regions of the Canadian Arctic, such as the North Water polynya and Lancaster Sound. The latter constitute hot spots of benthic ecosystem functioning compared to regions where zooplankton-mediated processes weaken the pelagic-benthic coupling. (3) In contrast with another widely shared assumption of lower biodiversity, arctic marine biodiversity is comparable to that reported off Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Canada, albeit threatened by the potential colonization of subarctic species. (4) The rapid decrease of summer sea-ice cover allows increasing numbers of killer whales to use the Canadian High Arctic as a hunting ground. The stronger presence of this species, bound to become a new apex predator of arctic seas, will likely affect populations of endemic arctic marine mammals such as the narwhal, bowhead, and beluga whales.     

Analysis of microsecond- and submicrosecond-scale electric field pulses produced by cloud and ground lightning discharges

We examined microsecond- and submicrosecond-scale pulses in electric field records of cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning discharges acquired in summer 2006, in Gainesville, Florida. A total of 12 cloud and 12 ground flashes were analyzed in detail, with the electric field record length being 96 or 200 ms and sampling interval being 4 or 10 ns. The majority of pulses in both cloud and ground discharges analyzed in this study were associated with the initial breakdown process and were relatively small in amplitude and duration. The typical durations were an order of magnitude smaller than tens of microseconds characteristic of “classical” preliminary breakdown pulses. We estimated that 26% of the pulses in the 12 cloud discharges and 22% of the pulses in the 12 cloud-to-ground discharges had total durations less that 1 µs.     

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.     

Jitter radiation images, spectra and light curves from a relativistic spherical blastwave

We consider radiation emitted by the jitter mechanism in a Blandford–McKee self-similar blastwave. We assume the magnetic field configuration throughout the whole blastwave meets the condition for the emission of jitter radiation and we compute the ensuing images, light curves and spectra. The calculations are performed for both a uniform and a wind environment. We compare our jitter results to synchrotron results. We show that jitter radiation produces slightly different spectra than synchrotron, in particular between the self-absorption and the peak frequency, where the jitter spectrum is flat, while the synchrotron spectrum grows as  ν^1/3  . The spectral difference is reflected in the early decay slope of the light curves. We conclude that jitter and synchrotron afterglows can be distinguished from each other with good quality observations. However, it is unlikely that the difference can explain the peculiar behaviour of several recent observations, such as flat X-ray slopes and uncorrelated optical and X-ray behaviour.     

57-second oscillations in Nova Centauri 1986 (V842 Cen)

High-speed photometry in 2008 shows that the light curve of V842 Cen possesses a coherent modulation at 56.825 s, with sidebands at 56.598 and 57.054 s. These have appeared since this nova remnant was observed in 2000 and 2002. We deduce that the dominant signal is the rotation period of the white dwarf primary and the sidebands are caused by reprocessing from a surface moving with an orbital period of 3.94 h. Thus, V842 Cen is an intermediate polar (IP) of the DQ Herculis subclass, is the fastest rotating white dwarf among the IPs and is the third fastest known in a cataclysmic variable. As in other IPs, we see no dwarf nova oscillations, but there are often quasi-periodic oscillations in the range 350–1500 s. There is a strong brightness modulation with a period of 3.78 h, which we attribute to negative superhumps, and there is an even stronger signal at 2.886 h which is of unknown origin but is probably a further example of that seen in GW Lib and some other systems. We used the Swift satellite to observe V842 Cen in the ultraviolet and in X-rays, although no periodic modulation was detected in the short observations. The X-ray luminosity of this object appears to be much lower than that of other IPs in which the accretion region is directly visible.     

Quark-nova remnants: application to RRATs

This is the third paper of a series of papers where we explore the evolution of iron-rich ejecta from quark-novae. In the first paper, we explored the case where a quark-nova ejecta forms a degenerate shell, supported by the star's magnetic field, with applications to SGRs. In the second paper, we considered the case where the ejecta would have sufficient angular momentum to form a degenerate Keplerian torus and applied such a system to two AXPs, namely 1E2259+586 and 4U0142+615. Here, we explore the late evolution of the degenerate torus and find that it can remain unchanged for  ∼10⁶ yr  before it becomes non-degenerate. This transition from a degenerate torus (accretion-dominated) to a non-degenerate disc (no accretion) occurs about 10⁶ yr following the quark-nova, and exhibits features that are reminiscent of observed properties of Rotation RAdio Transients (RRATs). Using this model, we can account for the duration of both the radio bursts and the quiet phase, as well as the observed radio flux from RRATs. We discuss a connection between XDINs and RRATs and argue that some XDINs may be 'dead RRATs' that have already consumed their non-degenerate disc.