A generalized conditional intensity measure approach and holistic ground‐motion selection

A generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach is proposed for use in the holistic selection of ground motions for any form of seismic response analysis. The essence of the method is the construction of the multivariate distribution of any set of ground‐motion intensity measures conditioned on the occurrence of a specific ground‐motion intensity measure (commonly obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). The approach therefore allows any number of ground‐motion intensity measures identified as important in a particular seismic response problem to be considered. A holistic method of ground‐motion selection is also proposed based on the statistical comparison, for each intensity measure, of the empirical distribution of the ground‐motion suite with the ‘target’ GCIM distribution. A simple procedure to estimate the magnitude of potential bias in the results of seismic response analyses when the ground‐motion suite does not conform to the GCIM distribution is also demonstrated. The combination of these three features of the approach make it entirely holistic in that: any level of complexity in ground‐motion selection for any seismic response analysis can be exercised; users explicitly understand the simplifications made in the selected suite of ground motions; and an approximate estimate of any bias associated with such simplifications is obtained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene vertical land motion and relative sea‐level changes: lessons from the British Isles

Vertical land motion caused by continuing glacial isostatic adjustment is one of several important components of sea‐level change and is not limited just to previously glaciated regions. A national‐scale analysis for the British Isles shows an ellipse of present‐day relative uplift (relative sea‐level fall), ～1.2 mm a^?1, broadly centred on the deglaciated mountains of Scotland. The pattern of three foci of relative subsidence, ～1 mm a^?1, results from the additional interactions of the deglacial meltwater load on the Atlantic basin and the continental shelf, and the signal due to far‐field ice sheets. At a local scale, sediment compaction can more than double the rate of relative land subsidence. Relative land‐level change (the negative of relative sea‐level change) is not the same as vertical land motion. There is a spatial pattern in the difference between relative land‐level change and vertical land motion, with differences at present of approximately ?0.1 to ?0.3 mm a^?1 around the British Isles and +2.5 to ?1.5 mm a^?1 globally. For the wider scientific and user community, whether or not the differences are considered significant will depend upon the location, time frame and spatial scale of the study that uses such information. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measurements of flow over an elongated ridge and its thermal stability dependence: The mean field

Measurements of mean wind flow and turbulence parameters have been made over Cooper's Ridge, a 115 m high elongated ridge with low surface roughness. This paper describes measurements of the streamwise and vertical variations in the mean field for a variety of atmospheric stability conditions. In near-neutral conditions, the normalised speedup over the ridge compares well with measurements from Askervein (Mickleet al., 1988). The near-neutral results are also compared to an analytical flow model based on that of Huntet al. (1988a). Measured streamwise variations show less deceleration at the foot of the hill and slightly more acceleration at the crest of the hill than does the model. In non-neutral conditions, the speedup over the ridge reduces slightly in unstable conditions and increases by up to a factor of two in stable conditions. The model is modified to allow boundary-layer stability to change the upwind wind profile and the depths of the inner and middle layers. Such a modification is shown to describe the observations of speedup well in unstable and weakly stable conditions but to overestimate the speedup in moderate to strongly stable conditions. This disagreement can be traced to the model's overestimation of the upstream scaling velocity at the height of the middle layer through its use of a stable wind profile form which has greater shear than that of the observed profiles, in possible combination with the three-dimensionality of the ridge which would allow enhanced flow around, rather than over, the feature in more stable conditions.     

Extension of the specific interaction model to include gas solubilities in high temperature brines

A semi-empirical model for gas solubilities in high temperature brines was developed by modification of the Pitzer interaction model (Pitzer, 1973) and evaluated by least-squares fitting to available P-T-X data for carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, and methane in pure water and in aqueous sodium chloride solutions. Over the range of experimental data used (25°–350°C, NaCl concentration 0–6 m, P_CO2 1–150 atm. P_CH4 1–30 atm, P_CH4 1–1700 atm), standard deviations of fit in the natural logarithm of the Henry's law ratio were 0.096 for CO₂, 0.093 for H₂S and 0.116 for CH₄.The model has several advantages. First, it has a theoretical basis which can easily be extended for the inclusion of more than one salt or gas. Second, the equations simplify to the empirically derived equation of Setschenow, in the limit of infinite dilution. Finally, the model is easily integrated into a framework of equations which can yield all of the thermodynamic properties of the system.An example in which values of the model parameters for interaction of gas with salt may be used to estimate the effect of dissolved gas or salt solubility is given.     

Evidence for Enhanced Mineral Dissolution in Organic Acid-Rich Shallow Ground Water

Total concentrations of formate, acetate, and isobutyrate varied from less than 5 to greater than 9,000 μmol/l over distances of < 3 m in ground water from a shallow hydrocarbon contaminated aquifer. Laboratory incubations of aquifer material indicate that organic acid concentrations were dependent on the amount of hydrocarbon loading in the sediment and the relative rates of microbial organic acid production and consumption. In heavily contaminated sediments, production greatly exceeded consumption and organic acid concentrations increased. In lightly contaminated sediments rates were essentially equal and organic acid concentrations remained low. Concentrations of dissolved calcium, magnesium, and iron generally were one to two orders of magnitude higher in organic acid-rich ground water than in ground water having low organic acid concentrations. Carbonate and Fe(III)-oxyhydroxide minerals were the likely sources of these elements. Similarly, concentrations of dissolved silica, derived from quartz and k-feldspar, were higher in organic acid-rich ground water than in other waters. The positive relation (r = 0.60, p < .05, n = 16) between concentrations of silica and organic acids suggests that the microbially mediated buildup of organic acids in ground water enhanced quartz/k-feldspar dissolution in the aquifer, although it was not the only factor influencing their dissolution. A model that included organic acid microequivalents normalized by cation microequivalents significantly strengthened the correlation (r = 0.79, p < .001, n = 16) between dissolved silica and organic acid concentrations, indicating that competition between silica and cations for complexation sites on organic acids also influenced quartz/k-feldspar dissolution. Physical evidence for enhanced mineral dissolution in organic acid-rich waters included scanning electron microscopy images of highly corroded quartz and k-feldspar grains from portions of the aquifer containing organic acid-rich ground water. Microporosity generated in hydrocarbon contaminated sediments may adversely affect remediation efforts that depend on the efficient injection of electron acceptors into an aquifer or on the recovery of solutes from an aquifer.     

Third- and fourth-order mixed moments of turbulent velocity and temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer

Fourth-order mixed moments of velocity and temperature fluctuations, measured within the atmospheric surface layer, are compared with results obtained by assuming the quasi-Gaussian approximation. Standard deviations of the products uw, u and w(u and w are the longitudinal and vertical velocity fluctuations; is the temperature fluctuation) are in good agreement with those obtained using the quasi-Gaussian assumption. Good agreement is also obtained between measured and Gaussian estimates of fourth-order moments including all three fluctuations u, w, Schwarz inequalities, commonly used in the clipping approximation in turbulence modelling, are found to provide bounds for third-order moments of w, that are too conservative. More reasonable, tighter, bounds for these moments are given by inequalities obtained by Lumley.     

Environmental oxidation rate of manganese(II): bacterial catalysis

A simple mass balance for dissolved manganese(II) in waters containing low levels of oxygen in Saanich Inlet indicates that the residence time for Mn(II) removal to the solid phase is on the order of a few days. The average oxidation state of Mn in particulate material sampled from the region of Mn removal was 2.3–2.7, and electron micrographs revealed structures characteristic of bacterially formed Mn precipitates. Radiotracer experiments utilizing ⁵⁴Mn(II) indicated that removal of Mn from solution in the region of active uptake was substantially blocked by a poison mixture, demonstrating that Mn(II) binding to particulates is catalyzed by bacteria in this environment.     

Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolutionary Timescale of the Pulsating White Dwarf G117-B15A: The Most Stable Optical Clock Known

We observe G117-B15A, the most precise optical clock known, to measure the rate of change of the main pulsation period of this blue-edge DAV white dwarf. Even though the obtained value is only within 1 sigma, P&d2;=&parl0;2.3+/-1.4&parr0;x10-15 s s-1, it is already constraining the evolutionary timescale of this cooling white dwarf star.