An artificial neural network-based response surface method for reliability analyses of <Emphasis Type="Italic">c</Emphasis>-φ slopes with spatially variable soil

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based response surface method that can be used to predict the failure probability of c-φ slopes with spatially variable soil. In this method, the Latin hypercube sampling technique is adopted to generate input datasets for establishing an ANN model; the random finite element method is then utilized to calculate the corresponding output datasets considering the spatial variability of soil properties; and finally, an ANN model is trained to construct the response surface of failure probability and obtain an approximate function that incorporates the relevant variables. The results of the illustrated example indicate that the proposed method provides credible and accurate estimations of failure probability. As a result, the obtained approximate function can be used as an alternative to the specific analysis process in c-φ slope reliability analyses.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">H-M</Emphasis> bearing capacity of a modified suction caisson determined by using load-/displacement-controlled methods

This paper presents a series of monotonically combined lateral loading tests to investigate the bearing capacity of the MSCs (modified suction caissons) in the saturated marine fine sand. The lateral loads were applied under load- and displacement-controlled methods at the loading eccentricity ratios of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5. Results show that, in the displacement-controlled test, the deflection-softening behavior of load-deflection curves for MSCs was observed, and the softening degree of the load-deflection response increased with the increasing external skirt length or the decreasing loading eccentricity. It was also found that the rotation center of the MSC at failure determined by the load-controlled method is slightly lower than that by the displacement-controlled method. The calculated MSC capacity based on the rotation center position in serviceability limit state is relatively conservative, compared with the calculated capacity based on the rotation center position in the ultimate limit state. In the limit state, the passive earth pressures opposite the loading direction under load- and displacement-controlled methods decrease by 46% and 74% corresponding to peak values, respectively; however, the passive earth pressures in the loading direction at failure only decrease by approximately 3% and 7%, compared with their peak values.     

Trend and dynamic cause of sediment particle size on the adjacent continental shelf of the Yangtze Estuary

Based on the measured data in recent 20 years, the variation trends of the median grain size of the surface sediment, the sand-silt boundary and the mud area on the adjacent continental shelf of the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed in depth, and the effects of natural mechanism and human activities were discussed. The results show that:(1) In recent years(2006-2013), the median grain size of sediment and the distribution pattern of grouped sediments in the adjacent continental shelf area to the Yangtze Estuary have presented no obvious change compared with those before 2006;(2) The median diameter of the surface sediment in the continental shelf area displayed a coarsening trend with the decrease of sediment discharge from the basin and the drop in suspended sediment concentration in the shore area;(3) In 2004-2007, the sand-silt boundary in the north part(31°30′N) of the continental shelf area presented no significant changes, while that in the south part(31°30′S) moved inwards; In 2008-2013, both the sand-silt boundaries in the north and south parts of the continental shelf area moved inwards, mainly due to the fact that in the dry season, a relatively enhanced hydrodynamic force of the tides was generated in the Yangtze River, as well as a decreased suspended sediment concentration and a flow along the banks in North Jiangsu;(4) The mud area where the maximum deposition rate is found in the Yangtze Estuary, tends to shrink due to the drop in sediment discharge from the basin, and the decrease in suspended sediment concentration in the shore area and erosion in the delta. Moreover, it tended to shift to the south at the same time because the implement of the training works on the deep-water channel of the North Passage changed the split ratio between the North and South Passages with an increase in the power of the discharged runoff in the South Passage.     

Segmentation algorithm for long time series analysis

Time series analysis is an important issue in the earth science-related engineering applications such as hydrology, meteorology and environmetrics. Inconsistency and nonhomogeneity that might arise in a time series yield segments with different statistical characteristics. In this study, an algorithm based on the first order statistical moment (average) of a time series is developed and applied on five time series with length ranging from 84 items to nearly 1,300. Comparison to the existing segmentation algorithms proves the applicability and usefulness of the proposed algorithm in long hydrometeorological and geophysical time series analysis.     

Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation

The performance of statistical climate reconstruction methods in the pre-instrumental period is uncertain, as they are calibrated in a short instrumental period but applied to much longer reconstructions time spans. Here, the virtual reality created by a climate simulation of the past millennium with the model ECHO-G is used as a test bed of three methods to reconstruct the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature. The methods are Composite plus Scaling, the inverse regression method of Mann et al. (Nature 392:779–787, 1998) and a direct principal-components regression method. The testing methodology is based on the construction of pseudo-proxies derived from the climate model output, the application of each of these methods to pseudo-proxy timeseries, and the comparison of their result with the simulated mean temperature. Different structures of the noise have been used to construct pseudo-proxies, ranging from the simulated grid-point precipitation. Also, one sparse and one denser pseudo-proxy network, co-located with two real networks, have been considered. All three methods underestimate the simulated variations of the Northern Hemisphere temperature, but the Composite plus Scaling method clearly displays a better performance and is robust against the different noise models and network size. The most relevant factor determining the skill of the reconstruction appears to be the network size, whereas the different noise models tend to yield similar results.     

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.     

Geochemical characteristics of island-arc volcanic rocks in the Nan-Nam Pat-Phetchabun zone,northern Thailand

Late Permian-Early Triassic (P₂-T₁) volcanic rocks distributed on the eastern side of ocean-ridge and oceanic-island basalts in the Nan-Uttaradit zone were analyzed from aspects of petrographic characteristics, rock assemblage, REE, trace elements, geotectonic setting, etc., indicating that those volcanic rocks possess the characteristic features of island-arc volcanic rocks. The volcanic rock assemblage is basalt-basaltic andesite-andesite. The volcanic rocks are sub-alkaline, dominated by calc-alkaline series, with tholeiite series coming next. The chemical composition of the volcanic rocks is characterized by low TiO₂ and K₂O and high Al₂O₃ and Na₂O. Their REE patterns are of the flat, weak LREE-enrichment right-inclined type. The trace elements are characterized by the enrichment of large cation elements such as K, Rb and Ba, common enrichment of U and Th, and depletion of Nb, Ta, Zr and Hf. The petrochemical plot falls within the field of volcanic rocks, in consistency with the plot of island-arc volcanic rocks in the Jinsha River zone of China. This island-arc volcanic zone, together with the ocean-ridge/oceanic island type volcanic rocks in the Nan-Uttaradit zone, constitutes the ocean-ridge volcanic rock-island-arc magmatic rock zones which are distributed in pairs, indicating that the oceanic crust of the Nan-Uttaradit zone once was of eastward subduction. This work is of great significance in exploring the evolution of paleo-Tethys in the Nan-Uttaradit zone.     

Colloidal Stability and Toxicity of Gold Nanoparticles and Gold Chloride on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chlamydomonas reinhardtii</Emphasis>

Here we have examined interactions of gold nanoparticles differing in primary particle size and coating with the green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as function of the colloidal stability of the particles in the experimental media used for toxicity studies. Interactions of dissolved Au³⁺ ions with algae were also examined. Included endpoints were photosynthetic yield and algal growth. Morphological and structural effects were examined microscopically and by flow cytometry. The results indicate no significant toxicity of gold nanoparticles to C. reinhardtii. Analysis of published data suggests toxicity of gold nanoparticles on algal growth to relate rather to particular coatings than to the gold core.     

Hydrochemical and Multivariate Statistical Evaluation of Heavy Metals in Shallow Alluvial Aquifers of North Brahmaputra Plain,India

The aim of this study was to display distribution and relationships of heavy elements in the unconfined, shallow alluvial aquifers of the lower Jia Bharali catchment and adjoining areas in central part of North Brahmaputra Plain (NBP), India using hydrochemical as well as multivariate statistical techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. The original matrix was made up of 10 trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Pb, Ni and Zn) estimated from 50 shallow alluvial dug wells in both the wet and the dry season for a duration of 3 hydrological years (2008–2011). Except As, Cu and Zn all the other toxic metals in the shallow aquifers were found exceeding the WHO maximum permissible limits for drinking water. PCA extracted five varimax factors as geogenic, agricultural and anthropogenic explaining about 71.2% of the total variance in the wet season and 69.3% total variance in the dry season. Hierarchical cluster analysis classified the dug wells into two groups in the wet season and three groups in the dry season with respect to the heavy elements. The results emphasized the need for routine monitoring and management in order to avoid contamination of groundwater sources in the NBP with respect to the dissolved trace elements.     

Palaeozoic tectonics of the south-western Chinese Tianshan: new insights from a structural study of the high-pressure/low-temperature metamorphic belt

The south-western Chinese Tianshan orogenic belt is famous for its omphacite-bearing blueschists and associated eclogite-facies metavolcanic rocks. Although numerous petrologic, geochemical and geochronological studies are available, structural data and interpretations are still rare. This paper provides new structural data, including bulk geometry of structures and kinematic analyses, based on field and laboratory studies along the Akyazhi, Keburt and Muzaert Rivers. The study area is divided into three tectonic units, namely (1) a Southern Unit composed of weakly metamorphosed sedimentary rocks of Silurian age; (2) a Central HP/LT Unit composed of blueschist-eclogite-facies metamorphic rocks derived from basalts, pelites and volcaniclastic rocks; (3) a Northern Unit, which consists of a Carboniferous magmatic arc developed upon an amphibolite-facies metamorphic continental basement. Our structural analysis documents a polyphase deformation. The main event (D₁) is reflected by Devonian to Carboniferous top-to-the northwest ductile shearing, coeval with HP/LT metamorphism. This is followed by north-directed thrusting (D₂) of the Southern Unit over the Central HP/LT Unit, coeval with retrogression of the high-pressure rocks. A top-to-the-S (SE) deformation (D₃) overprints the earliest events and is observed in the Northern and Central Units. Lastly, Permian dextral ductile-brittle wrenching (D₄) overprints the older flat-lying fabrics. D₄ is conspicuous along the Nalati Fault that separates the Northern Unit from the Central HP/LT Unit. The absolute timing of these deformation events is discussed in the light of available radiometric dating. The structural, metamorphic and geochronological data are integrated into a geodynamic model of the south-western Chinese Tianshan that emphasizes south-directed subduction of microcontinents located between Tarim and Junggar.