Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation

In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.     

Fine-Scale Characteristics of Temperature, Wind, and Turbulence in the Lower Atmosphere (0–1,300 m) Over the South Peruvian Coast

We report results of preliminary high-resolution in situ atmospheric measurements through the boundary layer and lower atmosphere over the southern coast of Perú. This region of the coast is of particular interest because it lies adjacent to the northern coastal edge of the sub-tropical south-eastern Pacific, a very large area of ocean having a persistent stratus deck located just below the marine boundary layer (MBL) inversion. Typically, the boundary layer in this region during winter is topped by a quasi-permanent, well-defined, and very large temperature gradient. The data presented herein examine fine-scale details of the coastal atmosphere at a point where the edge of this MBL extends over the coastline as a result of persistent onshore flow. Atmospheric data were gathered using a recently-developed in-house constructed, GPS-controlled, micro-autonomous-vehicle aircraft (the DataHawk). Measured quantities include high-resolution profiles of temperature, wind, and turbulence structure from the surface to 1,300 m.     

Studies of the formation process of water-in-oil emulsions

This paper summarizes studies to determine the formation process of water-in-oil emulsions and the stability of such emulsions formed in the laboratory and in a large test tank. These studies have confirmed that water-in-oil mixtures can be grouped into four states: stable emulsions, unstable water-in-oil mixtures, mesostable emulsions, and entrained water. These states are differentiated by rheological properties as well as by differences in visual appearance. The viscosity of a stable emulsion at a shear rate of one reciprocal second is about three orders of magnitude greater than that of the starting oil. An unstable emulsion usually has a viscosity no more than about 20 times greater than that of the starting oil. A stable emulsion has a significant elasticity, whereas an unstable emulsion does not. A mesostable emulsion has properties between stable and unstable, but breaks down within a few days of standing. The usual situation is that emulsions are either obviously stable, mesostable, or unstable. Entrained water, water suspended in oil by viscous forces alone, is also evident. Very few emulsions have questionable stability. Analytical techniques were developed to test these observations.

The type of emulsion produced is determined primarily by the properties of the starting oil. The most important of these properties are the asphaltene and resin content and the viscosity of the oil. The composition and property ranges of the starting oil that would be required to form each of the water-in-oil states are discussed in this paper.     

Selection of the wavenumbers k using an optimization method for the inverse Fourier transform in 2.5D electrical modelling

An optimization method is used to select the wavenumbers k for the inverse Fourier transform in 2.5D electrical modelling. The model tests show that with the wavenumbers k selected in this way the inverse Fourier transform performs with satisfactory accuracy.     

Geodynamic Evolution of Northeastern Tunisia During the Maastrichtian–Paleocene Time: Insights from Integrated Seismic Stratigraphic Analysis

The Maastrichtian–Paleocene El Haria formation was studied and defined in Tunisia on the basis of outcrops and borehole data; few studies were interested in its three-dimensional extent. In this paper, the El Haria formation is reviewed in the context of a tectono-stratigraphic interval using an integrated seismic stratigraphic analysis based on borehole lithology logs, electrical well logging, well shots, vertical seismic profiles and post-stack surface data. Seismic analysis benefits from appropriate calibration with borehole data, conventional interpretation, velocity mapping, seismic attributes and post-stack model-based inversion. The applied methodology proved to be powerful for charactering the marly Maastrichtian–Paleocene interval of the El Haria formation. Migrated seismic sections together with borehole measurements are used to detail the three-dimensional changes in thickness, facies and depositional environment in the Cap Bon and Gulf of Hammamet regions during the Maastrichtian–Paleocene time. Furthermore, dating based on their microfossil content divulges local and multiple internal hiatuses within the El Haria formation which are related to the geodynamic evolution of the depositional floor since the Campanian stage. Interpreted seismic sections display concordance, unconformities, pinchouts, sedimentary gaps, incised valleys and syn-sedimentary normal faulting. Based on the seismic reflection geometry and terminations, seven sequences are delineated. These sequences are related to base-level changes as the combination of depositional floor paleo-topography, tectonic forces, subsidence and the developed accommodation space. These factors controlled the occurrence of the various parts of the Maastrichtian–Paleocene interval. Detailed examinations of these deposits together with the analysis of the structural deformation at different time periods allowed us to obtain a better understanding of the sediment architecture in depth and the delineation of the geodynamic evolution of the region.     

Studies on water-in-oil products from crude oils and petroleum products

Water-in-oil mixtures such as emulsions, often form and complicate oil spill countermeasures. The formation of water-in-oil mixtures was studied using more than 300 crude oils and petroleum products. Water-in-oil types were characterized by resolution of water at 1 and 7 days, and some after 1 year. Rheology measurements were carried out at the same intervals. The objective of this laboratory study was to characterize the formed water-in-oil products and relate these properties to starting oil properties. Analysis of the starting oil properties of these water-in-oil types shows that the existence of each type relates to the starting oil viscosity and its asphaltene and resin contents. This confirms that water-in-oil emulsification is a result of physical stabilization by oil viscosity and chemical stabilization by asphaltenes and resins. This stabilization is illustrated using simple graphical techniques. Four water-in-oil types exist: stable, unstable, meso-stable and entrained. Each of these has distinct physical properties.     

Definition and interests of reciprocity and reciprocity gap principles for groundwater flow problems

We introduce the reciprocity and reciprocity gap principles for flow problems in hydrogeology and illustrate their interest in addressing identification problems. The reciprocity principle is derived from mechanics and establishes for flow problems a relationship between different sets of forcing terms, including sources, sinks and boundary conditions, and the resulting head fields. The reciprocity gap principle compares different head fields resulting from the same forcing terms applied to different structures. We give general 2D expressions of the reciprocity and reciprocity gap principles for transient flow problems and give two examples of applications for the identification of transmissivity values and interfaces between different transmissivities. Identification capacities of the reciprocity and reciprocity gap principles yielding direct inversion methods could be used as initial guesses for more advanced inverse problem methodologies.     

Efficacité des aménagements de lutte contre le ravinement: cas du bassin versant d’El Hnach (Tunisie)

Résumé

La lutte contre le ravinement a longtemps été un point clé des stratégies de lutte contre l’érosion en milieu méditerranéen. Cependant l’évaluation de l’efficacité des stratégies et pratiques d’aménagements fait défaut. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif du présent travail est de proposer et tester une méthode d’évaluation de l’efficacité d’aménagements réalisés pour limiter le ravinement. La démarche adoptée s’appuie sur l’interprétation de photographies aériennes de différentes dates. Elle est développée sur le bassin versant tunisien d’El Hnach (3,7 km²), partiellement aménagé vers 1989 avec diverses pratiques anti-érosives (plantations d’arbres, construction de banquettes, de seuils et de cordons de pierre). La comparaison entre zones aménagées et zones non aménagées est réalisée après correction des effets pente, lithologie et climat grâce à une normalisation par rapport au comportement de secteurs « témoins » non aménagés. La cartographie de l’évolution des longueurs de ravines entre 1952 et 2004 a permis de mesurer les dynamiques de ravinement et de mettre en évidence la grande variabilité de l’efficacité des aménagements selon le contexte de pente et de géologie.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé G. Mahé

Citation Rebai, H., Raclot, D., et Ben Ouezdou, H., 2013. Efficacité des aménagements de lutte contre le ravinement (cas du bassin versant d’El Hnach, Tunisie). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1532–1541.     

Acquisition de salinité et qualité des eaux d’une nappe profonde en Tunisie: approche statistique et géochimique

Abstract

The multi-layered Jeffara de Gabes aquifer system is greatly influenced by tectonics. This system is limited at the base and laterally by evaporite layers and has lateral contacts with the sebkhas (salt flats). The groundwater in this aquifer is characterized by high salinity (3–10 g L^-1). Multivariate statistical analysis and a geochemical approach were applied to determine the influence of the evaporite layers and sebkhas on the hydrochemical quality of the Jeffara de Gabes aquifer, and to understand the processes governing its salinity. According to these methods, and based in part on the Sr²⁺/Ca²⁺ ratio, it is demonstrated that the strong salinity of the groundwater is due to interactions between water and the evaporite layers that act as a substratum of this aquifer, as well as saltwater intrusion from the sebkhas. Moreover, the medium- to poor-quality groundwaters are characterized by geochemical interactions: cationic exchange and the precipitation/dissolution process of minerals in the aquifer formations.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Ben Alaya, M., Zemni, T., Mamou, A. et Zargouni, F., 2014. Acquisition de salinité et qualité des eaux d’une nappe profonde, Tunisie: approche statistique et géochimique. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 395–419.