Prediction of Indoor Air Quality from Soil-Gas Data at Industrial Buildings

Subslab or shallow soil-gas data are often compared with indoor air concentration data in vapor intrusion (VI) evaluations. If no indoor air data are available or confounding sources are present, or if future scenarios are considered, the soil-gas data may be used to estimate the indoor air concentrations due to VI. The typical approach in risk assessments is to use the 95th percentile values from a set of concentration data. For VI studies, however, this rarely is an option because the data sets tend to be quite small. Therefore, various guidance documents urge the use of maximum soil-gas values. This may be reasonable for small residential buildings, but can lead to very conservatively biased estimates if applied to large industrial buildings with localized areas of contamination, especially given that the sampling locations may not be randomly selected and instead are biased toward worst-case locations. By this approach, VI guidance implicitly tolerates a large percentage of false positive decision errors to minimize the number of false negative decision errors. In this paper, implications of using maximum values are discussed and illustrated with data sets from a number of large industrial buildings at various sites. An alternative approach to using maximum soil-gas values is proposed that serves to reduce the number of false positive results while controlling the number of false negatives to an acceptable level.     

Hydraulic and sedimentary processes causing anastomosing morphology of the upper Columbia River, British Columbia, Canada

The upper Columbia River, British Columbia, Canada, shows typical anastomosing morphology — multiple interconnected channels that enclose floodbasins — and lateral channel stability. We analysed field data on hydraulic and sedimentary processes and show that the anastomosing morphology of the upper Columbia River is caused by sediment (bedload) transport inefficiency, in combination with very limited potential for lateral bank erosion because of very low specific stream power (≤ 2.3 W/m²) and cohesive silty banks. In a diagram of channel type in relation to flow energy and median grain size of the bed material, data points for the straight upper Columbia River channels cluster separately from the data points for braided and meandering channels. Measurements and calculations indicate that bedload transport in the anastomosing reach of the upper Columbia River decreases downstream. Because of lateral channel stability no lateral storage capacity for bedload is created. Therefore, the surplus of bedload leads to channel bed aggradation, which outpaces levee accretion and causes avulsions because of loss of channel flow capacity. This avulsion mechanism applies only to the main channel of the system, which transports 87% of the water and > 90% of the sediment in the cross-valley transect studied. Because of very low sediment transport capacity, the morphological evolution of most secondary channels is slow. Measurements and calculations indicate that much more bedload is sequestered in the relatively steep upper anastomosing reach of the upper Columbia River than in the relatively gentle lower anastomosing reach. With anastomosing morphology and related processes (e.g., crevassing) being best developed in the upper reach, this confirms the notion of upstream rather than downstream control of upper Columbia River anastomosis.     

A Temporal Variant‐Invariant Validation Approach for Agent‐based Models of Landscape Dynamics

Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.     

Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity and Its Uncertainty from Grain-Size Data Using GLUE and Artificial Neural Networks

Various approaches exist to relate saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s) to grain-size data. Most methods use a single grain-size parameter and hence omit the information encompassed by the entire grain-size distribution. This study compares two data-driven modelling methods??multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks??that use the entire grain-size distribution data as input for K _s prediction. Besides the predictive capacity of the methods, the uncertainty associated with the model predictions is also evaluated, since such information is important for stochastic groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are combined with a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to predict K _s from grain-size data. The resulting GLUE-ANN hydraulic conductivity predictions and associated uncertainty estimates are compared with those obtained from the multiple linear regression models by a leave-one-out cross-validation. The GLUE-ANN ensemble prediction proved to be slightly better than multiple linear regression. The prediction uncertainty, however, was reduced by half an order of magnitude on average, and decreased at most by an order of magnitude. This demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms classical data-driven modelling techniques. Moreover, a comparison with methods from the literature demonstrates the importance of site-specific calibration. The data set used for this purpose originates mainly from unconsolidated sandy sediments of the Neogene aquifer, northern Belgium. The proposed predictive models are developed for 173 grain-size K _s-pairs. Finally, an application with the optimised models is presented for a borehole lacking K _s data.     

Effect of channel deepening on tidal flow and sediment transport: part I—sandy channels

Natural tidal channels often need deepening for navigation purposes (to facilitate larger vessels). Deepening often leads to tidal amplification, salinity intrusion, and increasing sand and mud import. These effects can be modelled and studied by using detailed 3D models. Reliable simplified models for a first quick evaluation are however lacking. This paper presents a simplified model for sand transport in prismatic and converging tidal channels. The simplified model is a local model neglecting horizontal sand transport gradients. The latter can be included by coupling (as post-processing) the simplified model to a 2DH or 3D flow model. Basic sand transport processes in stratified tidal flow are studied based on the typical example of the tidal Rotterdam Waterway in The Netherlands. The objective is to gain quantitative understanding of the effects of channel deepening on tidal penetration, salinity intrusion, tidal asymmetry, residual density-driven flow, and the net tide-integrated sand transport. We firstly study the most relevant tidal parameters at the mouth and along the channel with simple linear tidal models and numerical 2DH and 3D tidal models. We then present a simplified model describing the transport of sand (TSAND) in tidal channels. The TSAND model can be used to compute the variation of the depth-integrated suspended sand transport and total sand transport (incl. bed-load transport) over the tidal cycle. The model can either be used in stand-alone mode or with computed near-bed velocities from a 3D hydrodynamic model as input data.     

Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru

ABSTRACT

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.     

Evaluation of Two Low‐Cost–High‐Performance Adsorbent Materials in the Waste‐to‐Product Approach for the Removal of Pesticides from Drinking Water

This study evaluates the performance of two low cost and high performance adsorption materials, i.e., activated carbon produced from two natural waste products: Bamboo and coconut shell, in the removal of three pesticides from drinking water sources. Due to the fact that bamboo and coconut shell are abundant and inexpensive materials in many parts of the world, they respond to the “low‐cost” aspect. The adsorption capacities of two local adsorbents have been compared with commercial activated carbon to explore their potential to respond to the “high quality” aspect. Two pesticides were selected, namely dieldrin and chlorpyrifos, because they are commonly used in agriculture activities, and may remain in high concentrations in surface water used as drinking water sources. The results indicate that the adsorption of pesticides on activated carbons is influenced by physico‐chemical properties of the activated carbon and the pesticides such as the presence of an aromatic ring, and their molar mass. The activated carbon produced from bamboo can be employed as low‐cost and high performance adsorbent, alternative to commercial activated carbon for the removal of pesticides during drinking water production. The performance of activated carbon from bamboo was better due to its relatively large macroporosity and planar surface. The effect of adsorbent and pesticide characteristics on the performance was derived from batch experiments in which the adsorption behavior was studied on the basis of Freundlich isotherms.     

Upstream and downstream controls of recent avulsions on the Taquari megafan,Pantanal, south‐western Brazil

Avulsion, the natural relocation of a river, is a key process in the evolution of subaerial fans, river floodplains and deltas. The causes of avulsion are poorly understood, which is partly due to the scarcity of field studies of present avulsions. At present, two avulsions are occurring on the middle and lower Taquari megafan, Pantanal basin, south‐western Brazil. Here we present an analysis of the causes of these avulsions based on field and remote sensing data and show that avulsions on megafans can be controlled by both upstream and downstream processes. The middle fan avulsion (started in 1997–1998) is a result of upstream control: overbank aggradation was caused by the (variable) input of sandy sediment into the system, which caused channel‐belt superelevation and also created an easily erodible subsurface favouring bank retreat, crevassing, and scour of deep floodplain channels. The sandy subsurface in this area is inferred to have been a major factor in the causation of this avulsion under conditions of little gradient advantage. The lower fan avulsion (started c. 1990) results from interplay of upstream and downstream controls, the latter being related to the local base level (the Paraguay River floodplain) at the toe of the fan. Channel and overbank aggradation on the lower fan was influenced by fan sub‐lobe progradation and channel backfilling. Fan sub‐lobe progradation caused a significant gradient advantage of the avulsion channel over the parent channel. Avulsions are commonly supposed to be preferentially triggered by high‐magnitude floods, when there is considerable channel‐belt superelevation. However, both avulsions studied by us were triggered by small to average floods, with modest channel‐belt superelevation. We conclude that flood magnitude and channel‐belt superelevation have been overrated as causes of avulsion, and demonstrate additional causes that influence the growth of crevasses into avulsions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams

We apply an integrated hydrology‐stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM‐RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt‐dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lower reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub‐basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.