Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru

ABSTRACT

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.     

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams

We apply an integrated hydrology‐stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM‐RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt‐dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lower reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub‐basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple algorithm for generating streamflow networks for grid‐based,macroscale hydrological models

A simple algorithm for generating streamflow networks for macroscale hydrological models (MHMs) from digital elevation models (DEMs) is presented. Typically these hydrological models are grid based, with the simulated runoff produced within each cell routed through a stream network which connects the centers of cells in the direction of the major streams. Construction of such stream networks is a time consuming task, which has generally been done by hand with the aid of maps. Results indicate that the algorithm works satisfactorily in areas of both high and low relief, and for a wide range of model cell resolutions, although some manual adjustments may be necessary. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of channel deepening on tidal flow and sediment transport: part I—sandy channels

Natural tidal channels often need deepening for navigation purposes (to facilitate larger vessels). Deepening often leads to tidal amplification, salinity intrusion, and increasing sand and mud import. These effects can be modelled and studied by using detailed 3D models. Reliable simplified models for a first quick evaluation are however lacking. This paper presents a simplified model for sand transport in prismatic and converging tidal channels. The simplified model is a local model neglecting horizontal sand transport gradients. The latter can be included by coupling (as post-processing) the simplified model to a 2DH or 3D flow model. Basic sand transport processes in stratified tidal flow are studied based on the typical example of the tidal Rotterdam Waterway in The Netherlands. The objective is to gain quantitative understanding of the effects of channel deepening on tidal penetration, salinity intrusion, tidal asymmetry, residual density-driven flow, and the net tide-integrated sand transport. We firstly study the most relevant tidal parameters at the mouth and along the channel with simple linear tidal models and numerical 2DH and 3D tidal models. We then present a simplified model describing the transport of sand (TSAND) in tidal channels. The TSAND model can be used to compute the variation of the depth-integrated suspended sand transport and total sand transport (incl. bed-load transport) over the tidal cycle. The model can either be used in stand-alone mode or with computed near-bed velocities from a 3D hydrodynamic model as input data.     

Evaluation of Two Low‐Cost–High‐Performance Adsorbent Materials in the Waste‐to‐Product Approach for the Removal of Pesticides from Drinking Water

This study evaluates the performance of two low cost and high performance adsorption materials, i.e., activated carbon produced from two natural waste products: Bamboo and coconut shell, in the removal of three pesticides from drinking water sources. Due to the fact that bamboo and coconut shell are abundant and inexpensive materials in many parts of the world, they respond to the “low‐cost” aspect. The adsorption capacities of two local adsorbents have been compared with commercial activated carbon to explore their potential to respond to the “high quality” aspect. Two pesticides were selected, namely dieldrin and chlorpyrifos, because they are commonly used in agriculture activities, and may remain in high concentrations in surface water used as drinking water sources. The results indicate that the adsorption of pesticides on activated carbons is influenced by physico‐chemical properties of the activated carbon and the pesticides such as the presence of an aromatic ring, and their molar mass. The activated carbon produced from bamboo can be employed as low‐cost and high performance adsorbent, alternative to commercial activated carbon for the removal of pesticides during drinking water production. The performance of activated carbon from bamboo was better due to its relatively large macroporosity and planar surface. The effect of adsorbent and pesticide characteristics on the performance was derived from batch experiments in which the adsorption behavior was studied on the basis of Freundlich isotherms.     

Upstream and downstream controls of recent avulsions on the Taquari megafan,Pantanal, south‐western Brazil

Avulsion, the natural relocation of a river, is a key process in the evolution of subaerial fans, river floodplains and deltas. The causes of avulsion are poorly understood, which is partly due to the scarcity of field studies of present avulsions. At present, two avulsions are occurring on the middle and lower Taquari megafan, Pantanal basin, south‐western Brazil. Here we present an analysis of the causes of these avulsions based on field and remote sensing data and show that avulsions on megafans can be controlled by both upstream and downstream processes. The middle fan avulsion (started in 1997–1998) is a result of upstream control: overbank aggradation was caused by the (variable) input of sandy sediment into the system, which caused channel‐belt superelevation and also created an easily erodible subsurface favouring bank retreat, crevassing, and scour of deep floodplain channels. The sandy subsurface in this area is inferred to have been a major factor in the causation of this avulsion under conditions of little gradient advantage. The lower fan avulsion (started c. 1990) results from interplay of upstream and downstream controls, the latter being related to the local base level (the Paraguay River floodplain) at the toe of the fan. Channel and overbank aggradation on the lower fan was influenced by fan sub‐lobe progradation and channel backfilling. Fan sub‐lobe progradation caused a significant gradient advantage of the avulsion channel over the parent channel. Avulsions are commonly supposed to be preferentially triggered by high‐magnitude floods, when there is considerable channel‐belt superelevation. However, both avulsions studied by us were triggered by small to average floods, with modest channel‐belt superelevation. We conclude that flood magnitude and channel‐belt superelevation have been overrated as causes of avulsion, and demonstrate additional causes that influence the growth of crevasses into avulsions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of Country-Level Decisions on the Specification of Crown Cover in the Definition of Forests for Land Area Eligible for Afforestation and Reforestation Activities in the CDM

Within the Kyoto Protocol, countries have significant latitude to define a forest. The most important parameter affecting area designated as forest is the minimum crown density which can be set between 10 and 30 percent. The choice will have implications for the amount of land available in a country for afforestation and reforestation (A/R) activities within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). In this paper, we used GIS analysis to look at four case studies from countries involved in the EU-funded ENCOFOR project: Bolivia, Ecuador, Uganda and Kenya. We also looked at the effects of other factors that would exclude land from eligibility for A/R projects. A low threshold of 10 percent crown cover resulted in exclusion of 70 to 90 percent of the land area of all countries except Kenya, which differed from the other countries by its large dryland areas. Much less area was excluded when higher thresholds were used. The spatial analyses showed not only the effects of the choice of the crown cover criterion, but also where the land was available for CDM activities within each country at different thresholds. This is the first time that the effect of the crown cover element of the Kyoto forest definition on land availability and distribution for CDM A/R activities has been quantified. While there are a number of reasons to choose different thresholds, this analysis suggests that countries that are considering using CDM finance for rural development might want to select the higher minimum threshold for crown cover in order to maximize their participation and flexibility.     

Thermal metamorphism of primitive meteorites—XL The enstatite meteorites: origin and evolution of a parent body

We report neutron activation data for Ag, As, Bi, Cd, Co, Cs, Cu, Ga, In, Rb, Se, Te, Tl and Zn in samples of Abee heated at temperatures of 1000–1400°C in a low-pressure environment (initially ~ 10^?5 atm H₂) and in 9 enstatite achondrites (aubrites) and the silicate portion of the unique stony-iron, Mt Egerton. Trace element losses in heated Abee progress with temperature, the lowest retention being 2.4 × 10^?6 of initial contents. These data indicate trace element loss above 1000°C via diffusion-controlled processes having apparent activation energies of 8–55 kcal/mol ; only Co exhibits a significantly higher energy. These trace element data and those for aubrites, Mt Egerton and E4–6 chondrites, and mineralogic and isotopic evidence link all enstatite meteorites to a common parent body. Volatile, mobile elements vary inversely with cobalt content in aubrites and Mt Egerton but directly in E4–6 chondrites; this is inconsistent with all genetic models positing fractionation of such elements during nebular condensation and accretion. However, the data are consistent with the idea that aubrites and Mt. Egerton reflect fractional crystallization of a magma produced from enstatite chondrite-like parent material (probably E6) and late introduction of chalcophiles and mobile elements transported by FeS-Fe eutectic from an E4–6 region experiencing open-system metamorphism. As suggested earlier, the only primary process that affected enstatite meteorites involved fractionation of non-volatile lithophiles from sulfides and metal during condensation and accretion of chondritic parent material from the nebula. If, as seems likely, volatile/mobile elements reflect secondary processes, they can only be used to establish alteration conditions within the enstatite parent body and not to estimate temperatures during primary nebular condensation and accretion.     

Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity and Its Uncertainty from Grain-Size Data Using GLUE and Artificial Neural Networks

Various approaches exist to relate saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s) to grain-size data. Most methods use a single grain-size parameter and hence omit the information encompassed by the entire grain-size distribution. This study compares two data-driven modelling methods??multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks??that use the entire grain-size distribution data as input for K _s prediction. Besides the predictive capacity of the methods, the uncertainty associated with the model predictions is also evaluated, since such information is important for stochastic groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are combined with a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to predict K _s from grain-size data. The resulting GLUE-ANN hydraulic conductivity predictions and associated uncertainty estimates are compared with those obtained from the multiple linear regression models by a leave-one-out cross-validation. The GLUE-ANN ensemble prediction proved to be slightly better than multiple linear regression. The prediction uncertainty, however, was reduced by half an order of magnitude on average, and decreased at most by an order of magnitude. This demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms classical data-driven modelling techniques. Moreover, a comparison with methods from the literature demonstrates the importance of site-specific calibration. The data set used for this purpose originates mainly from unconsolidated sandy sediments of the Neogene aquifer, northern Belgium. The proposed predictive models are developed for 173 grain-size K _s-pairs. Finally, an application with the optimised models is presented for a borehole lacking K _s data.     

Runoff curve numbers for steep hillslopes with natural vegetation in semi‐arid tropical highlands,northern Ethiopia

Daily runoff from 27 plots (5 m × 2 m) recorded during two rainy seasons in the Tigray highlands (Ethiopia) were analysed together with daily rainfall to calculate runoff curve numbers for hillslopes covered by semi‐natural vegetation in varying stages of vegetation restoration. Curve number model parameters were derived using a least squares fitting procedure on the collected rainfall–runoff datasets. Curve numbers varied from 29 to 97. Land use type was an important explanatory factor for the variation in curve numbers, whereas hydrologic soil group was not. Curve numbers were negatively correlated with vegetation cover. Taking into account antecedent soil moisture conditions did not improve runoff prediction using the curve number method. As runoff prediction was less accurate in areas with low curve numbers, two separate regression functions relating curve numbers with vegetation cover were proposed for different land use types. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.