A non-traditional approach to the analysis of flood hazard for dams

The traditional and still prevailing approach to characterization of flood hazards to dams is the inflow design flood (IDF). The IDF, defined either deterministically or probabilistically, is necessary for sizing a dam, its discharge facilities and reservoir storage. However, within the dam safety risk informed decision framework, the IDF does not carry much relevance, no matter how accurately it is characterized. In many cases, the probability of the reservoir inflow tells us little about the probability of dam overtopping. Typically, the reservoir inflow and its associated probability of occurrence is modified by the interplay of a number of factors (reservoir storage, reservoir operating rules and various operational faults and natural disturbances) on its way to becoming the reservoir outflow and corresponding peak level—the two parameters that represent hydrologic hazard acting upon the dam. To properly manage flood risk, it is essential to change approach to flood hazard analysis for dam safety from the currently prevailing focus on reservoir inflows and instead focus on reservoir outflows and corresponding reservoir levels. To demonstrate these points, this paper presents stochastic simulation of floods on a cascade system of three dams and shows progression from exceedance probabilities of reservoir inflow to exceedance probabilities of peak reservoir level depending on initial reservoir level, storage availability, reservoir operating rules and availability of discharge facilities on demand. The results show that the dam overtopping is more likely to be caused by a combination of a smaller flood and a system component failure than by an extreme flood on its own.     

Diagnosis and testing of low-level cloud parameterizations for the NCEP/GFS model using satellite and ground-based measurements

The objective of this study is to investigate the quality of clouds simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global forecast system (GFS) model and to examine the causes for some systematic errors seen in the simulations through use of satellite and ground-based measurements. In general, clouds simulated by the GFS model had similar spatial patterns and seasonal trends as those retrieved from passive and active satellite sensors, but large systematic biases exist for certain cloud regimes especially underestimation of low-level marine stratocumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. This led to the overestimation (underestimation) of outgoing longwave (shortwave) fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere. While temperature profiles from the GFS model were comparable to those obtained from different observational sources, the GFS model overestimated the relative humidity field in the upper and lower troposphere. The cloud condensed water mixing ratio, which is a key input variable in the current GFS cloud scheme, was largely underestimated due presumably to excessive removal of cloud condensate water through strong turbulent diffusion and/or an improper boundary layer scheme. To circumvent the problem associated with modeled cloud mixing ratios, we tested an alternative cloud parameterization scheme that requires inputs of atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic variables. Much closer agreements were reached in cloud amounts, especially for marine stratocumulus clouds. We also evaluate the impact of cloud overlap on cloud fraction by applying a linear combination of maximum and random overlap assumptions with a de-correlation length determined from satellite products. Significantly better improvements were found for high-level clouds than for low-level clouds, due to differences in the dominant cloud geometry between these two distinct cloud types.     

Multi-technique investigation reveals new mineral, chemical, and textural heterogeneity in the Tagish Lake C2 chondrite

The Tagish Lake meteorite, an ungrouped C2 chondrite that is related to CI and CM chondrites, is a heterogeneous accretionary breccia with several distinct lithologies that, in bulk, are thought to represent the first known sample of a primitive carbonaceous D-type asteroid. Textural and chemical zoning of clasts and matrix have been little studied and promise additional insight into early solar system processes in both the solar nebula and on the Tagish Lake parent asteroid. We have examined an intact 2.9 g fragment and two polished thin sections from the spring 2000 (non-pristine) Tagish Lake collection to ascertain the major mineralogy and textures of notable features such as chondrules, amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs), inclusions, clasts, matrix, and fusion crust. We designed three stages of analysis for this friable meteorite: an initial, non-destructive in situ reconnaissance by μXRD to document meteorite mineralogy and textures and to identify features of interest, followed by spatially correlated μXRD, SEM-EDX and colour SEM-CL analysis of polished thin sections to fully understand mineralogy and the record of texture development, and finally higher resolution SEM-BSE mapping to document smaller scale relationships.Our analyses reveal several previously unreported or poorly characterized features: (1) distinctive colour cathodoluminescence (CL) zoning in relict CAI spinel, in chondrule and AOA forsterite, and in calcite nodules occurring throughout the Tagish Lake matrix. Forsterite frequently shows CL colour and intensity zonation that does not correspond with major or minor element differences resolvable with EPMA, indicating a trace element and/or structural CL-activation mechanism for the zonation that is likely of secondary origin; (2) an irregular inclusion dominated by magnesioaluminate spinel, dolomite, and phyllosilicates with traces of a Ca, Ti oxide phase (likely perovskite) interpreted to be a relict CAI; (3) variable preservation of mesostasis glass in porphyritic olivine chondrules. We anticipate that our multi-technique methodology, particularly non-destructive μXRD, can be successfully applied to other rare and friable materials such as the pristine Tagish Lake fragments.     

Placing the Deep Impact Mission into context: Two decades of observations of 9P/Tempel 1 from McDonald Observatory

We report on low-spectral resolution observations of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 from 1983, 1989, 1994 and 2005 using the 2.7 m Harlan J. Smith telescope of McDonald Observatory. This comet was the target of NASA's Deep Impact mission and our observations allowed us to characterize the comet prior to the impact. We found that the comet showed a decrease in gas production from 1983 to 2005, with the decrease being different factors for different species. OH decreased by a factor 2.7, NH by 1.7, CN by 1.6, C₃ by 1.8, CH by 1.4 and C₂ by 1.3. Despite the decrease in overall gas production and these slightly different decrease factors, we find that the gas production rates of OH, NH, C₃, CH and C₂ ratioed to that of CN were constant over all of the apparitions. We saw no change in the production rate ratios after the impact. We found that the peak gas production occurred about two months prior to perihelion. Comet Tempel 1 is a “normal” comet.     

Petrography and composition of Martian regolith breccia meteorite Northwest Africa 7475

The Northwest Africa (NWA) 7475 meteorite is one of the several stones of paired regolith breccias from Mars based on petrography, oxygen isotope, mineral compositions, and bulk rock compositions. Its inventory of lithic clasts is dominated by vitrophyre impact melts that were emplaced while they were still molten. Other clast types include crystallized impact melt rocks, evolved plutonic rocks, possible basalts, contact metamorphosed rocks, and siltstones. Impact spherules and vitrophyre shards record airborne transport, and accreted dust rims were sintered on most clasts, presumably during residence in an ejecta plume. The clast assemblage records at least three impact events, one that formed an impact melt sheet on Mars ≤4.4 Ga ago, a second that assembled NWA 7475 from impactites associated with the impact melt sheet at 1.7–1.4 Ga, and a third that launched NWA 7475 from Mars ~5 Ma ago. Mildly shocked pyroxene and plagioclase constrain shock metamorphic conditions during launch to >5 and <15 GPa. The mild postshock‐heating that resulted from these shock pressures would have been insufficient to sterilize this water‐bearing lithology during launch. Magnetite, maghemite, and pyrite are likely products of secondary alteration on Mars. Textural relationships suggest that calcium‐carbonate and goethite are probably of terrestrial origin, yet trace element chemistry indicates relatively low terrestrial alteration. Comparison of Mars Odyssey gamma‐ray spectrometer data with the Fe and Th abundances of NWA 7475 points to a provenance in the ancient southern highlands of Mars. Gratteri crater, with an age of ~5 Ma and an apparent diameter of 6.9 km, marks one possible launch site of NWA 7475.     

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.     

Sulfate reduction below the sulfate-methane transition in Black Sea sediments

A sudden increase in salinity about 7000 years ago caused a shift in the deposited sediments of the Black Sea from limnic to brackish-marine. Due to the development of an anoxic deep water basin and a relatively high sulfate concentration, organic matter is mineralized primarily through sulfate reduction in modern Black Sea sediments. Earlier studies showed that sulfate-reducing bacteria are abundant within the limnic sub-surface sediment in spite of extremely low concentrations of sulfate and organic carbon. A main objective of the present study was therefore to understand the depth distribution of sulfate reduction across the different sediment units, even deep below the sulfate-methane transition. Our study combined experimental measurements of sulfate reduction using ³⁵S radiotracer with analyses of sulfur and iron geochemistry in pore water and sediment. Potential sulfate reduction rates were measured with ³⁵S in sediment samples that were amended with sulfate and organic substrates and incubated in time-series up to 48 h. Sulfate reduction could thereby be detected and quantified at depths where concentrations of sulfate were otherwise too low to enable calculation of the rates. The results demonstrate that sulfate-reducing bacteria are active several meters below the sulfate-methane transition in Black Sea sediments. The cryptic sulfate reduction below the sulfate-methane transition may be driven by sulfate produced from re-oxidation of reduced sulfur species with oxidized iron minerals buried in the deep limnic sediment.     

Remediation of Dissolved BTEX Through Surface Application: A Prototype Field Investigation

The feasibility of surface application for remediating monoaromatic hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes — termed BTEX as a croup) dissolved in ground water under field conditions was investigated at a site within Canadian Forces Base. Borden. Ontario. The surface area was 25 m² and underlain by 3 to 3.5 m of unsaturated sands soil. For periods of at least 216 hours, between 43 and 72 cm/d of water containing BTEX at concentrations that averaged between 8 and 11 mg/L were continuously applied by drip irrigation. Nitrogen was added to the soil as a nutrient for the final third of the investigation.
Before the applied water reached the water table. BTEX mass losses ranged from of to essentially KM) percent. Less than 6 percent of the BTEX mass losses could be attributed to volatilization from the unsaturated soil. The remaining BTEX mass losses were attributed to biodegradation, mostly in the top 50 cm of the soil, which contained more inorganic nitrogen and organic carbon than the deeper soil. Biodegradation rates increased with applied concentration, nitrogen addition, and exposure to BTEX. Benzene concentrations in ground water attained compliance with Canadian and American drinking water standards only after nitrogen application.     

The Detection of Naturally Occurring BTX During a Hydrogeologic Investigation

Benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) were detected in ground water during a contaminant hydrogeological investigation of a landfill site. The landfill site was situated on approximately 10m (33 ft) of clay and glacial till overburden soils, which were underlain by a shaly limestone bedrock. The top part of the bedrock was the regional aquifer in the study area. Initial thoughts were that the landfill was the source of the BTX. However, the BTX was detected in ground water a considerable distance from the known extent of the leachate plume. Subsequent detailed analysis of rock cores showed the BTX could be leached from bituminous layers of shale that were interbedded in limestone. Rock core testing included gas chromatograph (GC) analysis of organic free reagent water used for leaching tests, flame ionization detection on a solvent used for leaching tests and thermal desorption analysis of the solid rock. The naturally occurring BTX, along with the presence of brackish ground water in the shaly bedrock, made it difficult to identify ground water contamination emanating from the landfill. Thus, the presence of BTX should not be considered definitive evidence of ground water contamination in certain sedimentary rock aquifers.