Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Community-based responses to climate hazards: typology and global analysis

Climatic Change - The severity and frequency of climate change hazards are increasing around the world. Because the impacts are most acutely felt in local communities, it is critical to improve...     

Variation in style of magmatism and emplacement mechanism induced by changes in basin environments and stress fields (Pannonian Basin,Central Europe)

The development of high‐resolution 3D seismic cubes has permitted recognition of variable subvolcanic features mostly located in passive continental margins. Our study area is situated in a different tectonic setting, in the extensional Pannonian Basin system (central Europe) where the lithospheric extension was associated with a wide variety of magmatic suites during the Miocene. Our primary objective is to map the buried magmatic bodies, to better understand the temporal and spatial variation in the style of magmatism and emplacement mechanism within the first order Mid‐Hungarian Fault Zone (MHFZ) along which the substantial Miocene displacement took place. The combination of seismic, borehole and log data interpretation enabled us to delineate various previously unknown subvolcanic‐volcanic features. In addition, a new approach of neural network analysis on log data was applied to detect and quantitatively characterise hydrothermal mounds that are hard to interpret solely from seismic data. The volcanic activity started in the Middle Miocene and induced the development of extrusive volcanic mounds south of the NE‐SW trending, continuous strike‐slip fault zone (Hajdú Fault Zone). In the earliest Late Miocene (11.6–9.78 Ma), the style of magmatic activity changed resulting in emplacement of intrusions and development of hydrothermal mounds. Sill emplacement occurred from south‐east to north‐west based on primary flow‐emplacement structures. The time of sill emplacement and the development of hydrothermal mounds can be bracketed by onlapped forced folds and mounds. This time coincided with the acceleration of sedimentation producing poorly consolidated, water‐saturated sediments preventing magma from flowing to the paleosurface. The change in extensional direction resulted in change in fault pattern, thus the formerly continuous basin‐bounding strike‐slip fault became segmented which could facilitate the magma flow toward the basin centre.     

Relict sand dredging for beach nourishment in the central Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy): effects on benthic assemblages

The aim of this study is to analyse the effects in space and time of relict sand-dredging activities on macrobenthic assemblages, in an area situated offshore Montalto di Castro (central Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy), and to analyse the recolonisation processes of macrobenthos in the dredged areas. The area in question is characterised by relict sand deposits (Holocenic paleo-beaches), used for beach nourishment along the Latium coast. The effects of sand extraction on benthic assemblages were investigated before, during and after three dredging operations. The sites analysed are located within the dredged areas (inside stations) and in neighbouring, not dredged, areas (outside stations). The results showed that the impact of sand extraction was confined to the dredged stations and to the areas in proximity to the dredged areas. During dredging activities, the structure of benthic assemblages within the impacted stations was characterised by low species richness and diversity. Both the direct removal of sediment and the re-suspension and consequent deposition of fine sediment affected benthic assemblages of the impacted stations. A few months after the dredgings, a recolonisation process was still observed at all the impacted stations. A gradual recolonisation process was observed at those stations affected by only one dredging, whereas a different recolonisation was observed at those stations affected by two dredgings over time. This study suggests that differences of re-colonisation processes of benthic assemblages are related to the intensity of dredging operations in terms of dredging frequency.     

Modelling and mass balance assessments of nutrient retention in a seasonally-flowing estuary (Swan River Estuary,Western Australia)

An integrated mass balance and modelling approach for analysis of estuarine nutrient fluxes is demonstrated in the Swan River Estuary, a microtidal system with strong hydrological dependence on seasonal river inflows. Mass balance components included estimation of gauged and ungauged inputs to the estuary and losses to the ocean (outflow and tidal exchange). Modelling components included estimation of atmospheric (N fixation, denitrification) and sediment–water column nutrient exchanges. Gross and net denitrification derived using two independent methods were significantly correlated (r² = 0.49, p < 0.01) with net rates averaging 40% of gross. Annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads from major tributaries were linearly correlated with annual freshwater discharge and were 3-fold higher in wet years than in dry years. Urban drains and groundwater contributed, on average, 26% of N inputs and 19% of P inputs, with higher relative contributions in years of low river discharge. Overall, ungauged inputs accounted for almost 35% of total nitrogen loads. For N, elevated loading in wet years was accompanied by large increases in outflow (7x) and tidal flushing (2x) losses and resulted in overall lower retention efficiency (31%) relative to dry years (70%). For P, tidal flushing losses were similar in wet and dry years, while outflow losses (4-fold higher) were comparable in magnitude to increases in loading. As a result, P retention within the estuary was not substantially affected by inter-annual variation in water and P loading (ca. 50% in all years). Sediment nutrient stores increased in most years (remineralisation efficiency ca. 50%), but sediment nutrient releases were significant and in some circumstances were a net source of nutrients to the water column.     

Solar Microflares Observed by SphinX and RHESSI

In 2009, the Russian Complex Orbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity of the Sun (CORONAS-Photon) spacecraft was launched, carrying the Polish Solar PHotometer In X-rays (SphinX). The SphinX was most sensitive in the spectral range 1.2?–?15 keV, thus an excellent opportunity appeared for comparison with the low-energy end of Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) spectra. Common spectral measurements with these instruments cover the range where most of the flare energy is accumulated. We have chosen four consecutive small solar events observed on 4 July 2009 at 13:43 UT, 13:48 UT, 13:52 UT, and 13:55 UT (RHESSI flare peak times) and used them to compare the data and results from the two instruments. Moreover, we included Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) records in our analysis. In practice, the range of comparison performed for SphinX and RHESSI is limited roughly to 3?–?6 keV. RHESSI fluxes measured with a use of one, four, and nine detectors in the 3?–?4 keV energy band agree with SphinX measurements. However, we observed that SphinX spectral irradiances are three times higher than those of RHESSI in the 4?–?6 keV energy band. This effect contributes to the difference in obtained emission measures, but the derived temperatures of plasma components are similar. RHESSI spectra were fitted using a model with two thermal components. We have found that the RHESSI hot component is in agreement with GOES, and the RHESSI hotter component fits the SphinX flaring component well. Moreover, we calculated the so-called thermodynamic measure and the total thermal energy content in the four microflares that we studied. The results obtained show that SphinX is a very sensitive complementary observatory for RHESSI and GOES.     

Nonequilibrium Processes in the Solar Corona,Transition Region,Flares, and Solar Wind <Emphasis Type="Italic">(Invited Review)</Emphasis>

We review the presence and signatures of the non-equilibrium processes, both non-Maxwellian distributions and non-equilibrium ionization, in the solar transition region, corona, solar wind, and flares. Basic properties of the non-Maxwellian distributions are described together with their influence on the heat flux as well as on the rates of individual collisional processes and the resulting optically thin synthetic spectra. Constraints on the presence of high-energy electrons from observations are reviewed, including positive detection of non-Maxwellian distributions in the solar corona, transition region, flares, and wind. Occurrence of non-equilibrium ionization is reviewed as well, especially in connection to hydrodynamic and generalized collisional-radiative modeling. Predicted spectroscopic signatures of non-equilibrium ionization depending on the assumed plasma conditions are summarized. Finally, we discuss the future remote-sensing instrumentation that can be used for the detection of these non-equilibrium phenomena in various spectral ranges.     

How U.S. ocean policy and market power can reform the coral reef wildlife trade

As the world’s largest importer of marine ornamental species for the aquaria, curio, home décor, and jewelry industries, the United States has an opportunity to leverage its considerable market power to promote more sustainable trade and reduce the effects of ornamental trade stress on coral reefs worldwide. Evidence indicates that collection of some coral reef animals for these trades has caused virtual elimination of local populations, major changes in age structure, and promotion of collection practices that destroy reef habitats. Management and enforcement of collection activities in major source countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines remain weak. Strengthening US trade laws and enforcement capabilities combined with increasing consumer and industry demand for responsible conservation can create strong incentives for improving management in source countries. This is particularly important in light of the March 2010 failure of the parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) to take action on key groups of corals.