On the production of traveling ionospheric disturbances by atmospheric gravity waves

This paper deals with how atmospheric gravity waves produce the traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) that are observed by ionosondes. It is shown that, rather than directly producing variations of ionospheric height, a likely mechanism involves changes in ionization density by gradients in the horizontal atmospheric gravity wave air motion. These density changes can be observed as variations of the height of an ionospheric isodensity surface (the usual way of measuring TIDs). This mechanism involving enhancement/depletion of ionospheric density requires quite moderate atmospheric gravity wave air motion speeds, and works well at almost all latitudes.     

All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network

The prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on a seasonal time scales has been attempted by various research groups using different techniques including artificial neural networks. The prediction of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales is not only scientifically challenging but is also important for planning and devising agricultural strategies. This article describes the artificial neural network (ANN) technique with error- back-propagation algorithm to provide prediction (hindcast) of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ANN technique is applied to the five time series of June, July, August, September monthly means and seasonal mean (June + July + August + September) rainfall from 1871 to 1994 based on Parthasarathy data set. The previous five years values from all the five time-series were used to train the ANN to predict for the next year. The details of the models used are discussed. Various statistics are calculated to examine the performance of the models and it is found that the models could be used as a forecasting tool on seasonal and monthly time scales. It is observed by various researchers that with the passage of time the relationships between various predictors and Indian monsoon are changing, leading to changes in monsoon predictability. This issue is discussed and it is found that the monsoon system inherently has a decadal scale variation in predictability. Received: 13 March 1999 / Accepted: 31 August 1999     

Strain and Crystallographic Fabric in Mesoscopic Ductile Shear Zones of Garhwal Himalaya

The MCT Zone of Bhagirathi valley of Garhwal Himalaya is characterized by numerous mesoscopic ductile shear zones. These shear zones are developed in response to nearly NNE-SSW maximum horizontal compression and provide an opportunity to study the variation in strain and crystallographic fabrics within the ductile shear zones.The grain shape and orientation of quartz under microscope reflect that strain is higher in the center and it progressively decreases towards the shear zone boundary. The preferred orientation of quartz c-axes across the shear zone suggests that the single girdle of the quartz c-axes are probably first developed at the shear zone boundary and become prominent in the center of shear zone with increase in the intensity of deformation. The strong crystallographic preferred orientation normal to foliation suggests that the internal deformation of the quartz might have taken place by dislocation creep mechanism exhibiting a non-coaxial deformation history.     

Predictability of Indian Monsoon Circulation with High Resolution ECMWF Model in the Perspective of Tropical Forecast During the Tropical Convection Year 2008

To address some of the issues of project Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) and the project ATHENA as ongoing international activities, an endeavor has been made for the first time to study the predictability of Indian summer monsoon in the backdrop of tropical predictability using 850 hPa atmospheric circulations with the high resolution (T1279) ECMWF model during the boreal summer of 2008 as one of the focus years of YOTC. The major findings obtained from the statistical forecast have been substantiated by the dynamical prediction in terms of the systematic error energy, its growth rate and the attribution of the dominant nonlinear dynamical processes to error growth. The systematic error energy of T1279 (16 km resolution) ECMWF model are generated in African landmass, India and its adjoining oceanic region, in near equatorial west Pacific and around the Madagascar region where the root mean square errors are observed and the zonal wind anomaly shows poor forecast skill. As far as the inadequate predictability of Indian summer monsoon by T1279 ECMWF model (revealed from the results of project ATHENA) is concerned, the systematic error energy and the error growth over Arabian Sea, in the eastern and western India due to the nonlinear convergence and divergence of error flux along with the erroneous Mascarene high may possibly be the determining factors for not showing any discernable improvement in Indian monsoon during the medium range forecast up to 240 h. This work suggests that the higher resolution of ECMWF model may not necessarily lead to the better forecast of Indian monsoon circulations during 2008 unless a methodology can be devised to isolate the errors due to the nonlinear processes that are inherent within the system.     

Radon-thoron monitoring in Tatun volcanic areas of northern Taiwan using LR-115 alpha track detector technique: Pre-calibration and installation

In the present study, experiments have been carried out to calibrate LR-115 alpha detector films in bare and cup-mode exposure for the measurement of radon and thoron concentrations in soil gas. Results showed non-uniformity in track formation on the films in bare-mode exposure. However, in cup-mode exposure the non-uniformity was reduced to a greater extent. The calibration factors obtained for radon in bare- and cup-mode exposures are 0.049 and 0.034 tr. cm^?2 per Bq m^?3 d, respectively. An attempt has been made to calibrate the radon-thoron discriminative cup with LR-115 films for simultaneous measurements of radon and thoron. This paper also presents the preliminary results of radonthoron monitoring in Tatun volcanic areas of northern Taiwan for the first time using radon-thoron discriminators with LR-115 films. The results show that the safe temperature to install the LR-115 films in volcanic areas is ≤ 65°C and thoron concentration in the study area is low.     

Petrophysical properties of the Himalayan granitoids: Implication on composition and source

The paper reports the characterization of density, magnetic susceptibility, magnetic anisotropy, seismic wave velocities, attenuation as well as mineralogy and major element chemistry of the four generation of granitoids from the Indian Himalaya. Based on these petrophysical properties, only the Cretaceous granitoids of the Trans-Himalayan region by virtue of their mantle affinity and domination of magnetite and/or magnetite–ilmenite series qualify to be the I-type granitoid. On the other hand, rest of the 3 suites of granitoids have a crustal affinity and can be categorized as S-type granitoids enriched with ilmenite and/or hemo-ilmenite series. Beside this general classification, some anomalous petrophysical properties can be related to distinctive mineralogy, stages of magmatic crystallization, and intensity of deformation in different class of granitoids. For example; (i) presence of heavy minerals like hornblende and magnetite accounts for the significantly high density and seismic wave velocity of the Cretaceous granitoids; (ii) fractional crystallization of mantle melts leads to hornblende-rich granitoids (rich in magnetite) in the earlier stage where biotite-rich granitoids (low magnetite) crystallize in the later stage, thus explaining bimodal distribution of magnetic susceptibility in Cretaceous granitoids; (iii) in S-type granitoids, high quartz content (45%) account for the lowest density recorded in Saruna Proterozoic granitoids whereas high content of micaceous minerals reduce the seismic wave and are responsible for the lowest S-wave velocity in the Early Palaeozoic Mandi granitoids; (iv) further, the effect of texture is seen as varying attenuation character of P- and S-waves on grain size. In general, the higher the grain size, the greater the attenuation. Once again Cretaceous granitoids negate this well established relation. Incorporation of this anomalous dependence of physical properties on mineralogical, tectonic fracturing, texture will help the translation of geophysical maps to more a realistic region specific crustal tectonic evolution models.     

Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction

The duration and extreme fluctuations of prolonged wet or dry spells associated with intraseasonal variability during extreme monsoon have devastating impacts on agrarian-based economy over Indian subcontinent. This study examines the potential predictability limit of intraseasonal transitions between rainy to non-rainy phases (i.e., active to break phases) or vice versa over central Indian region during extreme monsoon using very high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily rainfall datasets. The present study reveals that the transitions from both active to break and break to active conditions are more predictable by ~8 days during the weak monsoon (WM) years compared to the strong monsoon (SM) years. Such asymmetric behavior in the limit of predictability could be linked to the distinct differences in the large-scale seasonal mean background instability during SM and WM years. The achievability of such predictability is further evaluated in a state-of-the-art climate model, the climate forecast system (CFSv2). It is demonstrated that the observed asymmetry in predictability limit could be reproducible in the CFSv2 model, irrespective of its spatial resolution. This study provides impetus for useful dynamical prediction of wet/dry spells at extended range during the extreme monsoon years.