Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

The application of numerical weather prediction(NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous(yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008–16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation.The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation,NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations.Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.     

Hydraulic conductivity prediction based on grain-size distribution using M5 model tree

The hydraulic conductivity, K_s, is one of the most important hydraulic properties which controls the water and solute movement into the soil. It is measured on soil specimens in the laboratory. On the other hand, sometimes it is obtained by tests carried out in the field by a number of researchers. Therefore, several experimental formulas have developed to predict it. Recently, soft computing tools have been used to evaluate the hydraulic conductivity. However, these tools are not as transparent as empirical formulas. In this study, another soft computing approach, i.e. model trees, have been used for predicting the hydraulic conductivity. The main advantage of model trees is that, unlike the other data learning tools, they are easier to use and represent understandable mathematical rules more clearly. In this paper, a new formula that includes some parameters is derived to estimate the hydraulic conductivity. To develop the new formulas, experimental data sets of hydraulic conductivity were used. A comparison is made between the estimated hydraulic conductivity by this new formula and formulas given by other’s researches.     

Skill Assessment of Copernicus Climate Change Service Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts over Iran

Medium to long-term precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in water resource management and development of warning systems.Recently,the Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)database has been releasing monthly forecasts for lead times of up to three months for public use.This study evaluated the ensemble forecasts of three C3S models over the period 1993-2017 in Iran’s eight classified precipitation clusters for one-to three-month lead times.Probabilistic and non-probabilistic criteria were used for evaluation.Furthermore,the skill of selected models was analyzed in dry and wet periods in different precipitation clusters.The results indicated that the models performed best in western precipitation clusters,while in the northern humid cluster the models had negative skill scores.All models were better at forecasting upper-tercile events in dry seasons and lower-tercile events in wet seasons.Moreover,with increasing lead time,the forecast skill of the models worsened.In terms of forecasting in dry and wet years,the forecasts of the models were generally close to observations,albeit they underestimated several severe dry periods and overestimated a few wet periods.Moreover,the multi-model forecasts generated via multivariate regression of the forecasts of the three models yielded better results compared with those of individual models.In general,the ECMWF and UKMO models were found to be appropriate for one-month-ahead precipitation forecasting in most clusters of Iran.For the clusters considered in Iran and for the long-range system versions considered,the Météo France model had lower skill than the other models.     

Dynamics of the self-interacting chameleon cosmology

In this article we study the properties of the flat FRW chameleon cosmology in which the cosmic expansion of the Universe is affected by the chameleon field and dark energy. In particular, we perform a detailed examination of the model in the light of numerical analysis. The results illustrate that the interacting chameleon filed plays an important role in late time universe acceleration and phantom crossing.     

Hydrocarbon Vertical Continuity Evaluation in the Cretaceous Reservoirs of Azadegan Oilfield,Southwest of Iran: Implications for Reservoir Geochemistry

A collection of data obtained from analytical methods in geochemistry along with the reservoir engineering and geologic data were used to investigate the reservoir continuity in the Cretaceous Fahliyan, Gadavan, Kazhdumi and Sarvak reservoirs of the super-giant Azadegan oilfield, SW Iran. The geochemical data indicate that the oil samples, with medium to high level of thermal maturity, have been generated from the anoxic marine marl/carbonate source rock(s). The Sargelu(Jurassic) and Garau(Creta...     

Speckle filtering of Synthetic Aperture Radar images using filters with object-size-adapted windows

Speckle degrades the radiometric quality of a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image. Previous methods for speckle reduction have used a fixed-size window for filtering the entire image. This, however, may not be effective for the entire image, as land covers of different sizes require different filtering windows. In this paper, a novel method is proposed by which each pixel in the image is filtered with a window appropriate for the size of object within it. The real in-phase and the imaginary quadrature components of the SAR images determine the best window size and the pixels in the intensity image are filtered using their own optimal windows. The proposed method is presented for both single- and multi-polarized SAR images, and the results of several common filters that were modified are presented. This approach is applied to two RADARSAT-2 images: one over San Francisco, California, USA and the other over St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, producing results that were similar to, or outperformed, comparable filters while retaining details and suppressing speckle effectively. While the method was successful for single-look intensity data, it offers great potential for multi-look and amplitude data as well.     

Recognition of shallow karst water resources and cave potentials using thermal infrared image and terrain characteristics in semi-arid regions of Iran

Shallow karst water resources and caves may influence land surface temperatures due to cold transfer property of rocks and evaporation from buried karst. The objective of this research was to develop a method for recognition of karst areas based on evaluating the surface characteristics that manifest itself by low land surface temperature in the satellite images. Investigation of thermal ETM⁺ image of the study region in Iran showed that parts of carbonate rocks that bear karst water are relatively cooler compared to areas with similar terrain conditions. Relational modeling provided useful information on spatial distribution of areas that have the potential to hold karst water resources and/or caves. Further inspection of ASTER images, along with geotechnical, geophysical and geological field surveys verified the approach. Significant correlation was found between electrical resistivity and thermal band values. The method may be used as a primary exploratory tool for shallow karst water explorations in similar areas.     

Efficiency of standardized image processing in the fragmentation prediction in the case of Sungun open-pit mine

The paper proposes a standardized image-processing procedure with the use of sieve analysis results for calibration which is utilized to measure the size distribution of fragmentation at Sungun mine. Through this procedure, a number of 19 bench blasting in various levels have been initially selected as the target of the study for each, multiple photos were taken immediately after blast from suitable perspectives and locations of the muckpiles surfaces. The number of image sampling was chosen adequately high to achieve further reliability of the whole photography procedure. Then fragments of each muckpile were separately mixed by a loader, where another image sampling from these new muckpiles, bucket of loaders, and haulage trucks was performed. For the purpose of sieve analysis, seven sieves with the mesh sizes between 1.27 cm (0.5 in) and 25.4 cm (10 in) were designed, manufactured, and then installed at Sungun semi-industrial laboratory. Additionally, three mass samples of the mixed fragments were randomly chosen among the 19 muckpiles for sieving. During image analysis stage, “sieve shift” and “mass power” factors, required to obtain standardized size distribution, were precisely assigned when the results obtained by the image analysis software was in accordance with the sieving results. In order to validate the reliability of the image processing, a comparative analysis of the achieved results was made with the results of the original Kuz–Ram model [Cunningham (1983) The Kuz–Ram model for prediction of fragmentation from blasting. In: Proceedings of the first international symposium on rock fragmentation by blasting, Lulea, Sweden, pp 439–454]. Finally, the image-processing procedure was found to be more efficient, with results close-matched to the real results of the sieve analysis.