Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Mean crustal velocity: a critical parameter for interpreting crustal structure and crustal growth

Mean crustal velocity is a critical parameter for genesis of continental crystalline crust because it is a function of mean crustal composition and therefore may be used to resolve continental crustal growth in space and time. Although the best values of mean crustal velocity are determined from wide-angle reflection measurements, most studied here necessarily come from vertical averages in crustal refraction determinations. The mode of 158 values of mean crustal velocity is 6.3 km/s, a velocity which corresponds to a mean crustal composition of granodiorite to felsic quartz diorite; Archean crust may be slightly more mafic. Mean crustal velocities range from 5.8 to 7.0 km/s. The lowest values invariably are found in thermally disturbed rift zones and the highest values correspond to velocities in gabbro. Velocities in island arcs may be as low as 6.0 km/s but are typically 6.5–6.9 km/s which corresponds to andesitic composition; estimates of island arc composition are andesitic. If values of mean crustal velocity are not biased, this observation suggests that continental crust did not grow simply by addition of island arc material. Possibilities are that crust formed from fusion of island arcs and was later changed to more felsic composition by addition of material from the mantle or that the late Archean episode of major crustal growth did not involve processes similar to younger island arcs. Some crustal blocks might be changed in composition and thickness by such processes as underplating, interthrusting, necking and sub-crustal erosion. Specially designed experiments are suggested to determine this parameter so critical for understanding genesis of continental crust.     

Guided wave propagation in laterally varying media - II. Lg-waves in north-western Europe

Summary. Lg -wave observations at NORSAR from a sequence of explosions straddling the Central Graben in the North Sea, show that the phase is almost extinguished by passing through this structure. For models of the graben structure, based on seismic refraction experiments, with crustal thinning beneath a zone of thickened sediments, numerical modelling of Lg propagation shows very poor transmission. The inclusion of attenuation simulating the effects of scattering from faults and other complex structures further diminishes the transmittivity. The theoretical effect of a crustal pinch is to redistribute S energy over a wide range of groups velocities, a pattern that fits well with the observations.
Three components recordings at NORSAR of explosive charges fired in water covering a wide range of azimuths, show significant transverse components to the seismograms. The transverse energy builds up with travel time and for Lg is of the same order as the vertical component. These results are consistent with the theoretical prediction of progressive net transfer of energy from Rayleigh to Love modes as the wavetrain propagates through a three-dimensionally heterogeneous medium.     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

An inter-comparison of tidal solutions computed with a range of unstructured grid models of the Irish and Celtic Sea Regions

Three finite element codes, namely TELEMAC, ADCIRC and QUODDY, are used to compute the spatial distributions of the M₂, M₄ and M₆ components of the tide in the sea region off the west coast of Britain. This region is chosen because there is an accurate topographic dataset in the area and detailed open boundary M₂ tidal forcing for driving the model. In addition, accurate solutions (based upon comparisons with extensive observations) using uniform grid finite difference models forced with these open boundary data exist for comparison purposes. By using boundary forcing, bottom topography and bottom drag coefficients identical to those used in an earlier finite difference model, there is no danger of comparing finite element solutions for “untuned unoptimised solutions” with those from a “tuned optimised solution”. In addition, by placing the open boundary in all finite element calculations at the same location as that used in a previous finite difference model and using the same M₂ tidal boundary forcing and water depths, a like with like comparison of solutions derived with the various finite element models was possible. In addition, this open boundary was well removed from the shallow water region, namely the eastern Irish Sea where the higher harmonics were generated. Since these are not included in the open boundary, forcing their generation was determined by physical processes within the models. Consequently, an inter-comparison of these higher harmonics generated by the various finite element codes gives some indication of the degree of variability in the solution particularly in coastal regions from one finite element model to another. Initial calculations using high-resolution near-shore topography in the eastern Irish Sea and including “wetting and drying” showed that M₂ tidal amplitudes and phases in the region computed with TELEMAC were in good agreement with observations. The ADCIRC code gave amplitudes about 30 cm lower and phases about 8° higher. For the M₄ tide, in the eastern Irish Sea amplitudes computed with TELEMAC were about 4 cm higher than ADCIRC on average, with phase differences of order 5°. For the M₆ component, amplitudes and phases showed significant small-scale variability in the eastern Irish Sea, and no clear bias between the models could be found. Although setting a minimum water depth of 5 m in the near-shore region, hence removing wetting and drying, reduced the small-scale variability in the models, the differences in M₂ and M₄ tide between models remained. For M₆, a significant reduction in variability occurred in the eastern Irish Sea when a minimum 5-m water depth was specified. In this case, TELEMAC gave amplitudes that were 1 cm higher and phases 30° lower than ADCIRC on average. For QUODDY in the eastern Irish Sea, average M₂ tidal amplitudes were about 10 cm higher and phase 8° higher than those computed with TELEMAC. For M₄, amplitudes were approximately 2 cm higher with phases of order 15° higher in the northern part of the region and 15° lower in the southern part. For M₆ in the north of the region, amplitudes were 2 cm higher and about 2 cm lower in the south. Very rapid M₆ tidal-phase changes occurred in the near-shore regions. The lessons learned from this model inter-comparison study are summarised in the final section of the paper. In addition, the problems of performing a detailed model–model inter-comparison are discussed, as are the enormous difficulties of conducting a true model skill assessment that would require detailed measurements of tidal boundary forcing, near-shore topography and precise knowledge of bed types and bed forms. Such data are at present not available.     

Amplitudes of long-period PcP and the core-mantle boundary

The amplitudes of the core reflection PcP are sensitive to the wave velocities and densities in the neighborhood of the core-mantle boundary (CMB). We study the amplitude ratio of the long-period phases PcP and P from two South American deep-focus earthquakes with favorable fault-plane solution, depth and magnitude, as recorded by WWNSS and CSN stations in North America.Comparison is made with long-period PcP/P amplitude ratios, derived from theoretical seismograms for a variety of CMB models. Models from previous studies, which were mainly derived from short-period PcP observations and which are characterized by discrete layers above the CMB, are almost all inconsistent with the long-period data. The data also discriminate against low nonzero S velocities below the CMB. Simple first-order-discontinuity models of the CMB, for instance according to the Jeffreys-Bullen earth model or according to recent models based mainly on free oscillations, explain the data reasonably well.Model improvements are attempted by varying the P-velocity gradient above the CMB. The best amplitude fit is obtained for a rather strong decrease in P velocity with depth in this zone which, however, gives no acceptable traveltime fit for PcP. The scatter in body-wave amplitudes is considerable even for long-period waves and may prevent the correct assessment of that part of the amplitude variation of a phase with distance that is due to the variation of velocities and densities with depth alone.