第21章 BMO模式:英国气象局的业务波浪模式

英国气象局的业务波浪预报模式是在网格点上给出浪场。这个浪场通常定义在地球表面的极地侧射投影上。该模式可以把任意的网格长度、任意形状或尺寸的海洋区域初始化,但必须受到机器内存的限制。这一模式有总体的联结能力,即允许任何模式从其它模式中获得流入边界条件。实际操作中分两个模式运行。一个覆盖了北半球大部分区域,在60°N处其网格长度为300公里。它为欧州西北大陆架53公里网格长度的模式提供了边界条件。该模式的详细描述由Golding（1983）给出。此模式以离散谱给出每个网格点上的浪场,谱的分辨率是可变的,目前包括12个方位（以30°为间隔）和11个频率段（0.05、0.06、0.072、0.086、0.104、0.124、0.148,0.178、0.214、0.256、0.308Hz）所组成的波。另外,模式还包括了浅水效应,其计算水深间隔为2米,并包括可变群速、折射和底部摩擦影响。这些因素对北海和英吉利海峡的计算结果有显著的影响。     

Total oxyradical scavenging capacity and cell membrane stability of haemocytes of the Arctic scallop,Chlamys islandicus,following benzo(a)pyrene exposure

Industrial activities, notably oil and gas industries, are expanding in the Arctic. Most of the biomarkers were developed using temperate organisms living at temperatures above 10 degrees C. Little is known about the biomarker responses of organisms living between -1.88 and 5 degrees C. Therefore, assessment of the toxicity of chemicals to cold-water adapted species is required. In this study, the Arctic scallop, Chlamys islandicus, was selected as a key species for bio-monitoring because of wide distribution in Arctic waters and its commercial value. Test animals, stored in seawater at 2 degrees C, were injected with benzo(a)pyrene (diluted in cod liver oil 5 mg ml(-1)) in the adductor muscle every 24 h for four days giving a final dose of 0, 74 and 90.6 mg kg(-1) wet weight for control, low and high dose, respectively. The biomarkers used were total oxyradical scavenging capacity (TOSC) in the digestive gland and cell membrane stability of haemocytes. TOSC values were significantly reduced (ca. 30%) in exposed groups (P < 0.05), indicating a depletion in oxyradical molecular scavengers. The antioxidant defences appeared to be overwhelmed by the reactive oxygen species as the plasma membranes of haemocytes were destabilised (P < 0.05) probably due to lipid peroxidation. These data indicate that reactive oxygen species (ROS) were produced by Arctic scallops via the metabolisation of benzo(a)pyrene at 2 degrees C.     

特提斯陆架南部（埃及）古新世末期底栖有孔虫灭绝事件纪录

特提斯陆架南部（埃及）古新世末期底栖有孔虫灭绝事件纪录Ｂ。Ｓｃｈｍｉｔｚ等过去９０Ｍａ深海底栖有孔虫群的最急剧变化出现在古新世末期。对南极毛德海隆的ＯＤＰ６９０Ｂ孔详尽的研究表明，底栖有孔虫灭绝事件发生在短暂（＜１００ｈａ）的异常深海环流出现之始。在...     

海底天然气水合物稳定的热力学条件

在几乎所有的海底都有适合于天然气水合物的温度和压力，但是热力学平衡提出了形成水合物需要另一个涉及到溶解气浓度的条件。通过一种模拟退火算法--这种算法使得甲烷气体与海水混合物的自由能最小-我们量化了水合物的热力学条件。平衡相用一个压力、温度和盐度的函数来描述各稳定相的成分。我们发现溶解气的浓度（溶解度）随着温度的增加而迅速下降。在海水中，气体溶解度在特定的盐度时也是降低的。由于低溶解度会减少形成水合物所需要的气体量，所以海水中的盐实际上促进了水合物的形成。盐度的变化（常常引起水合物形成情况的变化）增加了一个热力学自由度，这就形成了一个三相区，此区域中水合物、海水和自由气体在恒压下的一个温度范围内共存。我们把该计算用于确定海底稳定相的分布。气体溶解度的计算结果表明水合物可以直接由海底的溶解气结晶而成。气体沿着平衡浓度梯度的扩散表明气体被连续不断地由水合物层运送到所覆盖的海水中。为了在海底沉积的过程中保持水合物，需要有一个持续的甲烷气源以弥补扩散所引起的损失。通过简单的近海沉积的物理条件模型就可以估算水合物的生长和消耗。     

A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks(BNs).In this paper,linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations.In order to use fuzzy information,an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors.The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge,and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation,modifying and maintaining a BN model.The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships,including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking,or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made.The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness,vagueness and ignorance.This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts.Specifically,the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values,but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods.A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production,Storage and Off-loading(FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.     

南海红树林内生真菌1356＃代谢产物的研究

从南海红树林内生真菌1356＃分离出两种鞘胺醇（A，B）和三种环二肽（C，D，E）。它们的结构通过IR，MS，1D NMR和2D NMR谱推导出来，（3'E,4E)-1-(-D-吡喃葡萄糖基－3－羟基－2－（2'-羟基十八碳酰基）氨基－10－甲－3',4,9-十八碳三烯（A）是一种新的鞘胺醇甙。     

Imposex and organotin concentrations in Buccinum undatum and Neptunea antiqua from the North Sea: relationship to shipping density and hydrographical conditions

The presence and the development of imposex were investigated in the common whelk (Buccinum undatum) and the red whelk (Neptunea antiqua) from the open North Sea and the Skagerrak. Imposex development was related to levels of organotins in snails and in the fine fractions (< 63 microm) of the sediments they inhabit. The sampling locations were classified according to three levels of traffic densities of ships of > or = 100 gt per day passing within 15 Nautical miles of the sampling station, shipping levels being: high (> 10 ships day(-1)), intermediate (5--10 ships day(-1)), and low (< 5 ships day(-1)). Sampling stations were also classified according to presence or absence of a vertically stratified water column. In the snails the body levels of the butyltin metabolites MBT and DBT and the parent phenyltin compound TPT, were higher than those of TBT and PT metabolites. In the sediment, the parent compounds and the mono-substituted metabolites MBT and MPT were present in the highest concentrations. The highest body levels of all organotin compounds and the highest imposex indices for the common whelk were found at those locations in the Southern Bight and the German Bight that had a high shipping density as well as a homogeneously mixed water column during the whole year. At these locations sediment levels of organotins were also higher than at other sites. In contrast, the body levels of organotins were low and imposex was sometimes even completely absent in snails from stratified deep-water stations in the Skagerrak, despite a very high shipping density in the entrance area of the Baltic. In sediments from stratified locations with low or intermediate shipping densities, organotin compounds were below or close to their respective limits of detection. These stations were located in areas with a stratified water column during the whole year. The results can be explained by postulating a much higher resistance for dissolved organotins to migrate through a pycnocline. Organotins could only transgress through a pycnocline when adsorbed to settling particles that manage to transgress the boundary between layers. N. antiqua could only be obtained in sufficient numbers from deeper water stations, which almost all had a stratified water column. At stations where both snail species were obtained and imposex was present, the imposex index was higher in the red whelk. Hence N. antiqua seems to be the more sensitive species of the two. In the red whelk, imposex development increased with shipping density too, though in the smaller samples the trend was not significant. Average biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs; normalised for lipid content in snails and TOC content in the fraction < 63 microm in sediments) for Buccinum ranged from 0.4 to 1.0 for butyltins and were similar to literature values reported for TBT in other marine species. Higher average BSAF values were found for phenyltins 1.5 (MPT) to 17 (TPT). The high values for TPT match the ranges expected from equilibrium partitioning concepts of persistent hydrophobic compounds. The ratio of live snails to the total number of live snails plus empty shells ranged between 2.5 and 93%. This parameter might be a useful indicator to compare past and present densities of populations of both species in different areas of the North Sea.     

The distribution of solar flares and probable relations to biological effects

We have compared the monthly distribution of the total number of flares to the monthly mortality from cardiovascular and myocardial infarctions for the time period 1974–1983, and computed correlation coefficients. Periodicities of 3 and 5 months (150 days) have been found in both distributions.     

The Paleoproterozoic Copper-Gold Deposit of Gaoua, Burkina Faso: Evidence for A Polyphased Mineralization

Please refer to the attachment(s) for more details