Evolution of latitude zonal structure of the large-scale magnetic field in solar cycles

Properties of a latitude zonal component of the large-scale solar magnetic field are analyzed on the basis of H charts for 1905–1982. Poleward migration of prominences is used to determine the time of reversal of the polar magnetic field for 1870–1905. It is shown that in each hemisphere the polar, middle latitude and equatorial zones of the predominant polarity of large-scale magnetic field can be detected by calculating the average latitude of prominence samples referred to one boundary of the large-scale magnetic field. The cases of a single and three-fold polar magnetic field reversal are investigated. It is shown that prominence samples referred to one boundary of the large-scale magnetic field do not have any regular equatorward drift. They manifest a poleward migration with a variable velocity up to 30 m s^-1 depending on the phase of the cycle. The direction of migration is the same for both low-latitude and high-latitude zones. Two different time intervals of poleward migration are found. One lasts from the beginning of the cycle to the time of polar magnetic field reversal and the other lasts from the time of reversal to the time of minimum activity. The velocity of poleward migration of prominences during the first period is from 5 m s^-1 to 30 m s^-1 and the second period is devoid of regular latitude drift.     

High-efficiency calculation method for watershed rainfall-runoff routing using one-dimensional dynamic wave equations

Efficiency in solving the Saint-Venant equations for watershed rainfall-runoff routing is important in flood hydrology. This paper presents a high-efficiency numerical solution of one-dimensional dynamic wave equations (HEDWE) for watershed rainfall-runoff routing, in which the full momentum equation is written as a quadratic equation with only one unknown variable Q, water depth is derived from the continuity equation using the two-step predictor-corrector method, and the discrete scheme is the explicit upwind scheme. The results of numerical tests showed the HEDWE approach has several major advantages. 1) It is a stable numerical method, even for an initially dry area. 2) Its computational efficiency is higher than 4.76E+05 times/s. 3) It can be used for overland flow, river flow, and combinations thereof. The primary disadvantages of the HEDWE approach are its unsuitability for rapidly varying flow, such as dam-break floods.     

Possible solar neutron events recorded by the ground-based neutron monitor

Possible solar neutron emission associated with five SMM gamma-ray events on 7 June 1980, 21 June 1980, 6 November 1980, 26 November 1982 and 25 April 1984 was found from analysis of 10-minute records of the ground-based neutron monitor at Tokyo. Of these the two events on 21 June 1980 and 25 April 1984 have been already known as neutron events. The time histories of the neutron monitor count rate are compared with those of the gamma-ray count rate and the possibility of energetic neutron emission at the flare site is discussed.     

Identification of Gleissberg Cycles and a Rising Trend in a 315-Year-Long Series of Sunspot Numbers

We show in this short note that the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is able to clearly extract a strong, clean, and clear component from the longest available sunspot (International Sunspot Number, ISN) time series (1700?–?2015) that cannot be an artifact of the method and that can be safely identified as the Gleissberg cycle. This is not a small component, as it accounts for 13% of the total variance of the total original signal. Almost three and a half clear Gleissberg cycles are identified in the sunspot number series. Four extended solar minima (XSM) are determined by SSA, the latest around 2000 (Cycle 23/24 minimum). Several authors have argued in favor of a double-peaked structure for the Gleissberg cycle, with one peak between 55 and 59 years and another between 88 and 97 years. We find no evidence of the former: solar activity contains an important component that has undergone clear oscillations of \(\approx90\) years over the past three centuries, with some small but systematic longer-term evolution of “instantaneous” period and amplitude. Half of the variance of solar activity on these time scales can be satisfactorily reproduced as the sum of a monotonous multi-secular increase, a \(\approx90\)-year Gleissberg cycle, and a double-peaked (\(\approx10.0\) and 11.0 years) Schwabe cycle (the sum amounts to 46% of the total variance of the signal). The Gleissberg-cycle component definitely needs to be addressed when attempting to build dynamo models of solar activity. The first SSA component offers evidence of an increasing long-term trend in sunspot numbers, which is compatible with the existence of the modern grand maximum.     

Automatic Determination of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Using Neural Networks and Instance-Based Machine Learning

In this article we show how machine learning methods can beeffectively applied to the problem of automatically predictingstellar atmospheric parameters from spectral information, a veryimportant problem in stellar astronomy. We apply feedforwardneural networks, Kohonen's self-organizing maps andlocally-weighted regression to predict the stellar atmosphericparameters effective temperature, surface gravity and metallicityfrom spectral indices. Our experimental results show that thethree methods are capable of predicting the parameters with verygood accuracy. Locally weighted regression gives slightly betterresults than the other methods using the original dataset asinput, while self-organizing maps outperform the other methods when significant amounts of noise are added. We also implemented a heterogeneous ensemble of predictors, combining the results given by the three algorithms. This ensemble yields better results than any of the three algorithms alone, using both the original and the noisy data.     

Non-equilibrium Condensation ina Primordial Solar Nebula: Formation of Refractory Metal Nuggets

We present a theoretical investigation of non-equilibrium condensation of refractory metalsinthe primordial solar nebula, in relation to the origin of “Fremdlinges” included inCAIs. Todescribe the nucleation process of grains from vapor, weadopted asemi-phenomenological modelmodified fromthe classical nucleation theoryby the introductionof the second virial coefficient of vapor. This modelachieves excellent agreement with nucleation rate experiment. However,the second virial coefficients are unknown for a vapor of refractory metals. To overcome this, weexpress the nucleation rate by theuse of the chemical potential of dimersinsteadof the second virial coefficient.On the basis of this new nucleation theory,we have performed numerical simulations ofnon-equilibrium condensation of refractory metals andfind thattheircondensation temperatures, T_c, decrease considerably in comparison withequilibrium condensation. Even if the characteristiccooling time scale is aslarge as 1×10⁵ years, the decrease in T_c isfrom 200 to 400 Kfor rare elements such as W, Re,and Os. This remarkablenon-equilibrium behaviormainly stemsfromthelow totalpressure in the primordial solar nebula. From our new modelwealso obtainthe typical size ofgrainsformed in condensation. We findthatthe cooling time should be ?1×10⁵ years for sub-micron-sized or largerrefractory metal nuggetsto form.     

Long-wavelength MHD instability in the prefront of collisionless shocks with accelerated particles

Collisionless shocks in turbulent space plasmas accelerate particles by the Fermi mechanism to ultrarelativistic energies. The interaction of accelerated particles with the plasma inflow produces extended supersonic MHD flows of multicomponent plasma. We investigate the instabilities of a flow of three-component turbulent plasma with relativistic particles against long-wavelength perturbations with scales larger than the accelerated particle transport mean free path and the initial turbulence scales. The presence of turbulence allows us to formulate the system of single-fluid equations, the equation of motion for the medium as a whole, and the induction equation for the magnetic field with turbulent magnetic and kinematic viscosities. The current of accelerated particles enters into the induction equation with an effective magnetic diffusion coefficient. We have calculated the local growth rates of the perturbations related to the nonresonant long-wavelength instability of the current of accelerated particles for MHD perturbations in the WKB approximation. The amplification of long-wavelength magnetic field perturbations in the flow upstream of the shock front can affect significantly the maximum energies of the particles accelerated by a collisionless shock and can lead to the observed peculiarities of the synchrotron X-ray radiation in supernova remnants.     

Residual deformations and seismic hazard of fault zones in underground workings

The results of long-term measurements of residual deformations in the area of the Severomuiskii tunnel during its construction are given. Comparison of spatial and temporal distributions between deformations and earthquakes shows that they are interrelated. The nonlinear behavior of disintegrated and waterlogged rocks within tectonic fault zones should be taken into account even for moderate intensity earthquakes, since they are accompanied by ground subsidence. Underground workings within such sites are subjected to loads that are greater than expected according to current hypotheses, which are the basis for calculations of rock pressure. It is established that the most probable mechanism of ground subsidence and residual deformation in underground workings could be the gravity load of the overlying strata of disintegrated and waterlogged rocks within a fault zone, which leads to instability of the rocks. Approximate stress estimations are made on the basis of the results of measurements of residual deformations of roof supports (linings).