A refined seismic analysis and design of buried pipeline for fault movement

Some lifelines, such as gas and oil transmission lines and water and sewer pipelines, have been damaged in recent earthquakes. The damages of these lifelines may cause major, catastrophic disruption of essential services for human needs. Large abrupt differential ground movements that result from an active fault present one of the most severe effects of an earthquake on a buried pipeline system. Although simplified analysis procedures for buried pipelines across strike-slip fault zones that cause tensile failure of the pipeline have been proposed, the results are not accurate enough because of several assumptions involved, such as the omission of flexural rigidity of the pipe, simplification of soil resistant characteristics, etc. Note that the omission of flexural rigidity cannot satisfy equilibrium conditions for pipelines across a ‘reverse’ strike-slip fault that causes compressions in the pipeline. This paper presents a refined analysis procedure for buried pipelines that is applicable to both strike-slip and reverse strikeslip faults after modifying some of the assumptions used previously. Based on the analytical results, this paper also discusses the design criteria for buried pipelines which are subjected to various fault movements. Parametric responses of buried pipeline for various fault movements, angles of crossing, buried depths and pipe diameters are presented.     

Oxygen isotopic compositions of DSDP Site 480 diatoms: Implications and applications

The oxygen isotope composition of marine diatoms from hydraulic piston-cored samples of DSDP Site 480 vary widely, reflecting the great temperature variations and large isotopic changes of surface water in the Gulf of California. Nevertheless, the results can be correlated with standard oxygen isotope records for the late Quaternary based on carbonates (such as the record of core V19-29). The diatom-based results also parallel oxygen isotope data on benthic foraminifera from Site 480, thus confirming that signals of environmental changes have been retained in the diatom oxygen isotope record throughout the section. The data therefore allow us to assign an oxygen isotope stratigraphy and to define the chronology of Site 480.     

Industrial decentralisation in South Africa: tool of Apartheid or spontaneous restructuring?

Industrial decentralisation (ID) has been a central component of South Africa's regional strategy for over twenty years. Until recently, though, the programme has evinced little interest amongst industrialists. The fact that ID policy has been premised upon political rather than economic considerations has been thought to lie at the root of this failure. Following recent developments, however, this view is being reassessed. The reorganisation of ID policy in 1982 and the dramatic acceleration in the rate of industrial relocations that this reorganisation appears to have induced, has led theorists to revise their thinking on both the economic and political imperatives underpinning the programme. The purpose of this paper is to review the debates that are now developing concerning ID in South Africa, and to suggest where further research and analysis might be most profitably directed.     

Stable isotopic characterisation of francolite formation

Stable isotopic data are presented for 112 samples of francolite from 18 separate phosphate deposits. Values ofδ¹³C andδ³⁴S in most offshore deposits suggest formation within oxic or suboxic environments either by carbonate replacement or direct precipitation of francolite from water of normal marine compositions. The exceptions are concretionary francolite from Namibia, which has an isotopic composition in keeping with its formation within organic-rich sediments, and that from offshore Morocco, which has an isotopic signature of the anoxic/suboxic interface. Onshore deposits from Jordan, Mexico, South Africa and, possibly, the Permian Phosphoria Formation in the western U.S.A., are substantially depleted in¹⁸O: they appear to be too altered for deductions to be made about their environments of formation. In other onshore deposits which are unaltered, or minimally altered, the isotopic composition suggests that some formed within sulphate-reducing sediments (Sedhura, Morocco) whilst francolite from the Georgina Basin of Australia formed at the oxic/anoxic boundary, where oxidation of biogenic H₂S decreases theδ³⁴S of pore water. In general, pelletal samples show non-oxic isotopic signatures, whilst non-pelletal samples show oxic isotopic signatures, but samples from Namibia, Peru (Ica Plateau) and the Californian and Moroccan margins are exceptions to this rule. Morphology may therefore be a misleading indicator of francolite genesis as no definitive relation exists between phosphorite type and isotopic signature.     

Seismic interaction at separation joints of an instrumented concrete bridge

A multi-span, curved, concrete box-girder bridge has been extensively instrumented by the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP) in cooperation with the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). On 28 June 1992, the bridge was shaken by the magnitude 7–5 Landers and magnitude 6–6 Big Bear earthquakes in southern California. The epicentres of these earthquakes were 50 and 29 miles (81 and 46 km) from the bridge, respectively. All 34 strong-motion sensors installed on the bridge recorded the response to these earthquakes and provided an insightful set of data. A striking aspect of the response is the presence of intermittent sharp spikes in nearly all of the acceleration records from sensors at the deck of the bridge. Among these the highest spike was 0.8g for the Landers and 1.0g for the Big Bear earthquake. The peak ground acceleration at the bridge site was only about 0.1g for both these earthquakes. With the aid of visual examination and simple analysis it is deduced that (1) the spikes were caused by forces generated at separation joints by impacts and stretching of the cable restrainers between adjacent bridge segments; (2) the forces of impacts and cable stretching are directly proportional to the size of the spikes and can be estimated by the use of a simple formula; and (3) the spikes travelled from their source to other locations on the bridge with the velocity of a compression wave propagating through concrete.     

Three-dimensional hybrid modelling of soil-structure interaction

A three-dimensional hybrid model for the analysis of soil-structure interaction under dynamic conditions is developed which takes advantage of the desirable features of the finite element and substructure methods and which minimizes their undesirable features. The modelling is achieved by partitioning the total soil-structure system into a near-field and a far-field with a hemispherical interface. The near-field, which consists of the structure to be analysed and a finite region of soil around it, is modelled by finite elements. The semi-infinite far-field is modelled by distributed impedance functions at the interface which are determined by system identification methods. Numerical results indicate that the proposed model makes possible realistic and economical assessment of three-dimensional soil-structure interaction for both surface and embedded structures.     

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Towards evaluating cloud response to climate change using clustering technique identification of cloud regimes

Most of the discrepancies in the climate sensitivity of general circulation models (GCMs) are believed to be due to differences in cloud radiative feedback. Analysis of cloud response to climate change in different ‘regimes’ may offer a more detailed understanding of how the cloud response differs between GCMs. In which case, evaluation of simulated cloud regimes against observations in terms of both their cloud properties and frequency of occurrence will assist in assessing confidence in the cloud response to climate change in a particular GCM. In this study, we use a clustering technique on International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data and on ISCCP-like diagnostics from two versions of the Hadley Centre GCM to identify cloud regimes over four different geographical regions. The two versions of the model are evaluated against observational data and their cloud response to climate change compared within the cloud regime framework. It is found that cloud clusters produced by the more recent GCM, HadSM4, compare more favourably with observations than HadSM3. In response to climate change, although the net cloud response over particular regions is often different in the two models, in several instances the same basic processes may be seen to be operating. Overall, both changes in the frequency of occurrence of cloud regimes and changes in the properties (optical depth and cloud top height) of the cloud regimes contribute to the cloud response to climate change.